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Social Science > Demography

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 14 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Commercial Real Estate in Crisis: Evidence from Transaction-Level Data
Mr. Adrian Alter
,
Elizabeth M. Mahoney
, and
Cristian Badarinza
During the past two decades, the commercial real estate (CRE) market has been impacted by major disruptions, including the global financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic. Using granular data from the U.S., we document how these crises have unfolded and elaborate on the role of heterogeneity and underlying shocks. Both a set of reduced-form approaches and a structural framework suggest a prominent role for demand-side local factors in the short run, along with significant shifts in preferences during crisis episodes. However, valuations become more closely linked to macro-financial factors over the long term. A one-standard deviation tightening in financial conditions is associated with a drop of about 3% in CRE prices in the following quarter, with a stronger impact on the retail sector and milder effects in states where household indebtedness is lower.
Keywords:
Non-residential Real Estate; Financial Conditions; Liquidity; Big Data; level data; CRE price; household indebtedness; CRE market; CRE transaction; COVID-19; Real estate prices; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Global; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover IMF Research Perspectives
IMF Research Perspectives: Spring/Summer 2021
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
IMF Research Perspectives: Spring/Summer 2021
Keywords:
IMF research perspective; government spending multiplier; R&D effort; IMF CSF; central bank financing; COVID-19; Bank credit; Fiscal stance; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Europe; Africa
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Inequality and Poverty across Generations in the European Union
Tingyun Chen
,
Mr. Jean-Jacques Hallaert
,
Mr. Alexander Pitt
,
Mr. Haonan Qu
,
Mr. Maximilien Queyranne
,
Ms. Alaina P Rhee
,
Ms. Anna Shabunina
,
Mr. Jerome Vandenbussche
, and
Irene Yackovlev
This SDN studies the evolution of inequality across age groups leading up to and since the global financial crisis, as well as implications for fiscal and labor policies. Europe’s population is aging, child and youth poverty are rising, and income support systems are often better equipped to address old-age poverty than the challenges faced by poor children and/or unemployed youth today.
Keywords:
SDN; youth poverty; youth unemployment; IMF staff calculation; absolute poverty; labor market policy; Inequality; Poverty; Europe; Redistribution; income inequality; personal income; labor market institution; Income inequality; Personal income; Aging; Unemployment; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Impact of Workforce Aging on European Productivity
Mr. Shekhar Aiyar
and
Mr. Christian H Ebeke
The age-distribution of Europe’s workforce has shifted towards older workers over the past few decades, a process expected to accelerate in the years ahead.. This paper studies the effect of the aging of the workforce on labor productivity, identifies the main transmission channels, and examines what policies might mitigate the effects of aging. We find that workforce aging reduces growth in labor productivity, mainly through its negative effect on TFP growth. Projected workforce aging could reduce TFP growth by an average of 0.2 percentage points every year over the next two decades. A variety of policies could ameliorate this effect.
Keywords:
WP; workforce; growth; Workforce Aging; Productivity; Policies; labor market; effect of workforce; workforce training; workforce skill; age group; aging workforce; workforce share; Aging; Total factor productivity; Labor force; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Policy Challenges of Population Aging in Ireland
Ms. Dora M Iakova
and
Mr. Dennis P Botman
The projected rise in age-related government spending as a share of GDP in Ireland over the next forty years is among the highest in the euro area. In the absence of reforms, public debt will increase to unsustainable levels. This paper uses the IMF's Global Fiscal Model to compare the macroeconomic effects of different fiscal strategies to accommodate the rise in age-related spending. The simulations suggest that adopting a package of measures, including an increase in the retirement age, broadening the tax base, and raising indirect taxes, would be a more growth-friendly strategy than relying exclusively on raising the social security contribution rate.
Keywords:
WP; spending; debt; GDP; rate; social security contribution rate
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ireland: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper discusses Ireland’s trade and financial linkages with key partner countries. The paper uses a vector autoregression to examine the impact of shocks to partner country GDP and shocks to Irish competitiveness on Irish GDP. Two main findings are that shocks to U.S. GDP have a much larger impact on the variance of Irish GDP than shocks to the euro area or the United Kingdom. The paper also uses the IMF’s Global Fiscal Model to compare the effects of alternative fiscal adjustment strategies on employment and growth.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Ireland; GDP; spending; labor market; debt; financial system; arm's length content; social security contribution rate; Ireland's private-sector indebtedness; competitiveness affect Ireland; U.K. GDP; debt issuance; net debt path; credit growth; Pension spending; Aging; Social security contributions; Labor market flexibility; Global; Europe
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, September 2006
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
The Economics of Demographics provides a detailed look at how the biggest demographic upheaval in history is affecting global development. The issue explores demographic change and the effects of population aging from a variety of angles, including pensions, health care, financial markets, and migration, and looks specifically at the impact in Europe and Asia. Picture This looks at global demographic trends, while Back to Basics explains the concept of the demographic dividend. Country Focus spotlights Kazakhstan, while People in Economics profiles Nobel prize winner Robert Mundell. IMF Economic Counsellor Raghuram Rajan argues for further change in India's style of government in his column, Straight Talk.
Keywords:
FD; F&D; sex ratio; country; ratio; shares insight; health expenditure; policy adjustment; world oil price; Kazakhstan's economy; Aging; Migration; Pension spending; Global; Europe; Asia and Pacific; East Asia; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Who Saves in Ireland? The Micro Evidence
Ms. Marialuz Moreno Badia
This paper provides detailed empirical evidence on the saving behavior of Irish households using micro data from the 1994/95 and 1999/2000 Household Budget Surveys. I employ synthetic cohort techniques to characterize the life cycle profile of saving rates and to examine the response of household saving to house price appreciation. The analysis suggests that households at the peak of their working lives have relatively low savings though there is no evidence of a generational savings gap. Also, despite housing being a major component of Irish households, wealth, there is no strong relationship between savings and housing capital gains.
Keywords:
WP; Ireland; rate
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Greece: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the growth prospects of the Greek economy. It is estimated that exceptional factors boosted growth by 1 percentage point per year in recent years and, under current trends and policies, growth is likely to drop to about 3 percent by the end of the decade. The paper places the recent strong growth performance of the Greek economy in a historical and international context. It also assesses the impact of exceptional factors on growth, and presents statistical estimates of potential growth.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; pension benefit; TFP growth; GDP growth; labor force; pension expenditure; participation rate; Pension spending; Pensions; Aging; Migration; Total factor productivity; Eastern Europe; Europe; publication policy; pension deficit; reader comment; evolution of pensioner; Social security contributions
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ireland: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper for Ireland highlights that fiscal consolidation resulted in a tremendous reduction in public debt from nearly 100 percent of GDP in 1991 to about 30 percent in 2004. This has reflected a combination of policy decisions and economic circumstances. Excluding 2001, when the economy has been affected by the global economic slowdown, Ireland has in general consistently enjoyed favorable surprises in its public finances. Indeed, during this period, the actual fiscal outturns have exceeded budget forecasts on average by 0.3 percent of GDP a year.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Ireland; rate; labor market; revenue; saving rate; replacement rate; median saving ratio; growth prospect; household savings; mean error; incentive account; Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts; Income; Unemployment; Aging; Budget planning and preparation; Europe; Australia and New Zealand; Global