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Social Science > Demography

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Cover IMF Working Papers
E-commerce as a Potential New Engine for Growth in Asia
Mr. Tidiane Kinda
The use of e-commerce around the world has accelerated in recent years, with Asia, led by China, spearheading the rise. Using cross-country enterprise survey data, this paper shows that firms engaged in e-commerce have higher productivity and generate a larger share of their revenues from exports than other firms. This is particularly true in Asia, where firms have 30 percent higher productivity and generate about 50 percent more of their revenues from exports. The results presented in this paper are robust to the use of instrumental variables, which highlight possible larger effects of e-commerce on Asian productivity and exports when essential elements are in place for its effective use, such as reliable electricity, telecommunication, and transport infrastructure. Despite the rapid growth of e-commerce in recent years, gaps persist in digital infrastructure and legislation, preventing many Asian countries from fully reaping the potential benefits of e-commerce.
Keywords:
WP; e-commerce firm; World Bank enterprises survey; firm performance; way firm; affiliate company; e-commerce; productivity; exports; World Bank enterprises Surveys; TFP of firm; Total factor productivity; Human capital; Asia and Pacific; Global
Cover Policy Papers
A Strategy for IMF Engagement on Social Spending: Background Papers
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
,
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, &amp
, and
Review Department
This Supplement presents an account of the extensive consultations and the results of various analyses that supported the development of “A Strategy for IMF Engagement on Social Spending.”
Keywords:
PP; spending; staff report; staff; IMF staff calculation; spending issue; social spending; IMF program; Health care spending; Education spending; Personal income; Total expenditures; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Asia and Pacific; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Indonesia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper focuses on various challenges and opportunities related to reaping Indonesia’s demographic dividend. Demographic trends can impact growth through various channels. These include the size of the labor force, productivity, and capital formation. Indonesia’s growth is set to have a sizeable tailwind from demographic trends. The paper suggests that Indonesia should seize the window of opportunity to reap the demographic dividend, as aging is projected to start kicking in less than 15 years. In the long-term, Indonesia can grow old before becoming rich. The rapid speed of aging implies that Indonesia, similar to many Asian economies, may face the prospect of becoming old before becoming rich. Given Indonesia’s favorable demographic trends, policies should focus first on maximizing the demographic dividend. Reaping the demographic dividend requires appropriate policies to raise productivity and create enough quality jobs for the growing working-age population. Investing in human capital early on, including education and health care, is essential to improve the productivity of the workforce and increase the size of the demographic dividend.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Indonesia; IMF staff estimate; VAT; workforce; export; VAT threshold; financial market; workforce training; old-age dependency ratio; population share; equity-enhancing priority expenditure; export destination; growth strategy; Exports; Capital markets; Infrastructure; Aging; Financial inclusion; Global; Asia and Pacific; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This paper discusses selected issues related to the economy of Thailand. The economy of Thailand is largely dependent on China. A 1 percent decline in China’s GDP lowers Thailand’s output by about 0.2 percent. Population aging is another major issue in Thailand. This Association of Southeast Asian Nations country will face the dual challenge of increasing the coverage of the social security system and ensuring its long-term sustainability. Thailand’s financial sector has expanded rapidly over the last decade, and important changes in its structure have taken place. While corporate debt has remained broadly stable, household debt has increased to one of the highest levels among emerging markets, raising concerns about household debt overhang.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Thailand; China; GDP; Other Asean-5 Countries; household debt; China shock; dependency ratio; public health expenditure; wage cap; employees of state enterprises; Pensions; Pension spending; Aging; Exports; Commercial banks; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Future of Asia’s Finance: How Can it Meet Challenges of Demographic Change and Infrastructure Needs?
Ding Ding
,
Mr. Waikei R Lam
, and
Mr. Shanaka J Peiris
There is a role for Asia’s financial sector to play to address the challenges associated with the region’s changing demographics and infrastructure investment needs. Enhancing financial innovation and integration in the region could facilitate intra-regional financial flows and mobilize resources from the aging savers in industrialized Asia to finance infrastructure investment in emerging Asia. Strengthening the financial ties within the region as well as with the global financial markets alongside appropriate prudential frameworks could also help diversify sources of financing and reduce the cost of funding in emerging Asia. Finally, financial deepening could help ease the potential overheating from scaling up infrastructure investment and hence achieve a more balanced growth in the region.
Keywords:
WP; Asia; saving; infrastructure investment; cost of capital; Demographic change; infrastructure financing; financial deepening; financial integration; capital and financial flows; Asia EM Asia; infrastructure gap; rate of return; Infrastructure; Aging; Domestic savings; Asia and Pacific
Cover Equitable and Sustainable Pensions
Equitable and Sustainable Pensions
Challenges and Experience
Mr. Benedict J. Clements
,
Frank Eich
, and
Mr. Sanjeev Gupta

Abstract

Pension reform is high on the agenda of many advanced and emerging market economies, for many reasons. First, public pensions often constitute a large share of government expenditure. Second, population aging means that reforms would be needed just to keep pension spending from rising in the future. Third, in many economies, low or falling pension coverage will leave large segments of the population without adequate income in old age and at risk of falling into poverty. Although a number of studies have assessed the effects of pension reforms on fiscal sustainability, a systematic analysis of equity issues in pension systems—and how countries have grappled with these issues—has yet to be undertaken. This book brings together the latest research on equity issues related to pension systems and pension reforms in the post-crisis world. Some of the key issues covered include: the effect of pension systems on intergenerational equity and the impact of pension reforms on poverty, the effects of pension reform measures on fiscal sustainability and equity, and the fiscal consequences of achieving different equity goals. It also presents country case studies. The volume provides a rich menu of material to assist policymakers and academic audiences seeking to understand the latest research in this area, as well as the lessons and challenges for the design of reforms.

Keywords:
BOOK; pension; retirement age; government; country; income; pension system; replacement rate; contribution rate; old-age pension; Pension spending; Pensions; Aging; Retirement; Pension reform; East Asia; Eastern Europe; Asia and Pacific; Global; Europe; eligibility age
Cover IMF Working Papers
Education Attainment in Public Administration Around the World: Evidence from a New Dataset
Mr. Rabah Arezki
,
Mr. Herbert Lui
,
Mr. Marc G Quintyn
, and
Mr. Frederik G Toscani
The paper provides a detailed description of a novel dataset on education attainment in public administrations covering the period 1981-2011 for 178 countries. The dataset uses information extracted from CVs for over 130,000 mid to senior level officials from mainly central banks and ministries of economy and finance. Our main finding is that there is little heterogeneity across regions when considering a non quality-adjusted measure of education attainment in public administrations. Adjusting our measure for quality, using a country wide academic ranking, reveals important cross-regional heterogeneity differing from that of standard measures of education attainment for the general population. The dataset also allows us to uncover important patterns in public administrations' education attainment along gender and seniority across regions. We further use the dataset to explore a few applications which provide some evidence of (i) the importance of salary incentives in attracting highly educated staff and (ii) a positive association between education attainment in public administrations and government effectiveness (e.g. higher tax revenue mobilization, limiting corruption, better public finance management and private market support).
Keywords:
WP; education attainment; authority; administration; Public Administration; State Capacity; government effectiveness; training activity; government discipline; Fiscal governance; Civil service; Public sector; Central and Eastern Europe; Central Asia; East Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Intergovernmental Grants Systems and Management: Applications of a General Framework to Indonesia
Mr. Bob Searle
,
Jun Ma
,
Mr. Stefano Piperno
, and
Mr. Ehtisham Ahmad
Intergovernmental equalization grants have been described as “the glue that holds a nation together.” Getting the grants system right is critical to countries as they decentralize. This paper illustrates general principles with an example based on Indonesia in 2000. A general grant should be used to supplement own revenues and to finance local service provision where there are no central mandates. The special needs of backward regions would be better provided for by specific grants. Specific grants need to be taken into account in the general grants scheme.
Keywords:
WP; tax rate; Indonesia; Fiscal Decentralization; Equalization Grants; revenue capacity; government administration; recipient government; expenditure need; governance law; Total expenditures; Africa
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, June 1998
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Since it began operations in 1946, the IMF has steadily evolved in response to changes in the world economy. What steps is it taking to meet the new challenges posed by the Asian crisis?
Keywords:
FD; F&D; market; currency; exchange rate; salary; crisis
Cover IMF Working Papers
Saving Trends in Southeast Asia: A Cross-Country Analysis
Mr. Hamid Faruqee
and
Mr. Aasim M. Husain
This paper investigates the long-run pattern of private saving in Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. These countries have not only maintained saving levels that are currently among the highest in the world but have also experienced a sustained increase in their rate of private saving over the past twenty years. Using a cointegration approach, this paper empirically examines the economic determinants underlying the saving trends in this group and the extent to which these countries share a common experience with respect to the factors accounting for their strong saving performance. The findings suggest that demographic shifts have been an important factor underlying regional saving trends with a similar long-run impact in each country, except for Indonesia where the effects of demographics have been even more pronounced.
Keywords:
WP; saving rate; time series; critical value; country estimate; saving scheme; coefficient estimate; panel estimation; estimation result; Engle-granger estimate; Private savings; Disposable income; Income; Aging; Southeast Asia