Narrow Your Choices

Refine By Countries

Refine By Series

Refine By Language

Refine By Date

—

Refine By IMF Taxonomy

Refine By JEL Taxonomy

Refine by LOC Taxonomy

Refine By THEMA Taxonomy

  • Print
  • Save

Social Science > Demography

You are looking at 1 - 7 of 7 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Health: Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health x
Clear All Modify Search
Cover IMF Working Papers
Equitable Access to Vaccines: Myth or Reality?
Shushanik Hakobyan
,
Henry Rawlings
, and
Jiaxiong Yao
Fighting the COVID-19 pandemic required vaccinations; however, ending it requires vaccination equality. The progress in vaccinations varies greatly across countries, with low- and middle-income countries having much lower vaccination rates than advanced countries. Initially, the limited vaccine supply was in part to blame for slow pace of vaccinations in low-income countries. But as the supply constraints eased toward the end of 2021, the focus has shifted to in-country distribution challenges and vaccine hesitancy. This paper quantifies the importance of various factors in driving vaccination rates across countries, including vaccine deliveries, demographic structure, health and transport infrastructure and development level. It then estimates the contribution of these factors to vaccination inequality. We show that much of the vaccination inequality in 2021-22 was driven by the lack of access to vaccines which is beyond countries’ control. And although vaccination inequality declined over time, access to vaccines remains the dominant driver of vaccination inequality.
Keywords:
COVID-19; vaccination; access; inequality; vaccination inequality; vaccination rate; vaccine hesitancy; vaccination equality; country distribution challenge; Income inequality; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Assessing Targeted Containment Policies to Fight COVID-19
Mr. Francesco Grigoli
and
José M. Mota
The large economic costs of full-blown lockdowns in response to COVID-19 outbreaks, coupled with heterogeneous mortality rates across age groups, led to question non-discriminatory containment measures. In this paper we provide an assessment of the targeted approach to containment. We propose a SIR-macro model that allows for heterogeneous agents in terms of mortality rates and contact rates, and in which the government optimally bans people from working. We find that under a targeted policy, the optimal containment reaches a larger portion of the population than under a blanket policy and is held in place for longer. Compared to a blanket policy, a targeted approach results in a smaller death count. Yet, it is not a panacea: the recession is larger under such approach as the containment policy applies to a larger fraction of people, remains in place for longer, and herd immunity is achieved later. Moreover, we find that increased interactions between low- and high-risk individuals effectively reduce the benefits of a targeted approach to containment.
Keywords:
Optimal containment policies; COVID-19; heterogeneous agents; recession; voluntary social distancing.; WP; policy scenario; containment policy; share of contact; blanket policy scenario; optimal containment; targeted policy approach
Cover IMF Working Papers
COVID-19 Impact and Mitigation Policies: A Didactic Epidemiological-Macroeconomic Model Approach
John P. Ansah
,
Mr. Natan P. Epstein
, and
Valeriu Nalban
We develop an integrated epidemiological-macroeconomic model to analyze the interplay between the COVID-19 outbreak and economic activity, as a tool for capacity building purposes. We illustrate a workhorse framework that combines a rich epidemiological model with an economic block to shed light on the tradeoffs between saving lives and preserving economic outcomes under various mitigation policies and scenarios calibrated for emerging market and developing economies. In our benchmark setup, we link the effective contact frequency and labor supply decisions to the current state of the disease progression, allowing for relevant behavioral responses that introduce multiple feedback channels. We showcase the effects of various “smart” mitigation measures, e.g. improved quarantine capacity or targeted labor market restrictions, to alleviate the tradeoffs between health-related outcomes and economic activity, including in response to a second infection wave. The discovery of treatment or vaccine, and the possibility of temporary immunity for the recovered individuals are also considered. The model is further extended to a multisector framework to analyze the sectoral allocation effects of the COVID-19 shock.
Keywords:
Pandemic; Epidemiological model; Macroeconomics; Emerging market and developing economies; Mitigation policy; WP; infection risk; lockdown measure; infection rate; government-mandated lockdown; infection prevalence; viral load; infection curve; infection intensity; wave scenario; infection wave; virus transmission rate; latency period; COVID-19; Labor markets; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Exiting from Lockdowns: Early Evidence from Reopenings in Europe
Mr. Jeffrey R. Franks
,
Bertrand Gruss
,
Mr. Carlos Mulas-Granados
,
Manasa Patnam
, and
Mr. Sebastian Weber
European authorities introduced stringent lockdown measures in early 2020 to reduce the transmission of COVID-19. As the first wave of infection curves flattened and the outbreak appeared controlled, most countries started to reopen their economies albeit using diverse strategies. This paper introduces a novel daily database of sectoral reopening measures in Europe during the first-wave and documents that country plans differed significantly in terms of timing, pace, and sequencing of sectoral reopening measures. We then show that reopenings led to a recovery in mobility—a proxy for economic activity—but at the cost of somewhat higher infections. However, the experience with reopening reveals some original dimensions of this trade-off. First, the increase in COVID-19 infections after reopening appears less severe in fatality rates. Second, a given reopening step is associated with a worse reinfection outcome in countries that started reopening earlier on the infection curve or that opened all sectors at a fast pace in a relatively short time. Finally, while opening measures tend to have an amplification effect on subsequent cases when a large fraction of the economy is already open, this effect appears heterogenous across sectors.
Keywords:
Pandemics; Lockdowns; Europe; WP; reopening policy; infection curve; infection amplification risk; infection dynamics; infection-death curve; outcome variable; infection evolution; infection variable; infection situation; effect of reopening; COVID-19; Public expenditure review
Cover IMF Working Papers
What are the Economic Effects of Pandemic Containment Policies? Evidence from Sweden
Mrs. Jana Bricco
,
Florian Misch
, and
Alexandra Solovyeva
This paper examines the economic effects of policies to contain Covid-19, by extracting lessons from Sweden’s experience during the ‘Great Lockdown’. Sweden’s approach was less stringent and based more on social responsibility than legal obligations compared to European peers. First, we provide an account of Sweden’s strategy and the health outcomes. Second, drawing on a range of data sources and empirical findings, our analysis of the first Covid-19 wave indicates that a less stringent strategy can soften the economic impact initially. These benefits could be eroded subsequently, due to potentially higher infection rates and a prolonged pandemic, but in Sweden’s case, the evidence remains mixed in this regard, and it is premature to judge the outcome of Sweden’s containment strategy. In addition, the economic effects of the containment strategy also depend on social behavior, demographics and structural features of the economy, such as the degree of export orientation, reliance on global supply chains, and malleability to remote working.
Keywords:
WP; Sweden; containment; containment measure; IMF staff calculation; containment strategy
Cover IMF Working Papers
Health Spending in Japan: Macro-Fiscal Implications and Reform Options
Mr. Masahiro Nozaki
,
Kenichiro Kashiwase
, and
Ikuo Saito
Health spending has risen rapidly in Japan. We find two-thirds of the spending increase over 1990–2011 resulted from ageing, and the rest from excess cost growth. The spending level will rise further: ageing alone will raise it by 3½ percentage points of GDP over 2010–30, and excess cost growth at the rate observed over 1990–2011 will lead to an additional increase of 2–3 percentage points of GDP. This will require a sizable increase in government transfers. Japan can introduce micro- and macro-reforms to contain health spending, and financing options should be designed to enhance equity.
Keywords:
WP; cost growth; cost; profile shift; Japan; health spending; long-term care; fiscal policy; spending ratio; health status; health outcome; spending data; health system; spending increase; copayment rate; health risk; budget target; LTC spending; health spending growth; Health care spending; Aging; Health care; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Universal Health Care 101: Lessons for the Eastern Caribbean and Beyond
Ms. Evridiki Tsounta
Despite the increasing interest in universal health care, little is known about the optimal way to finance, design, and implement it. This paper attempts to fill this gap by providing some general policy recommendations on this important issue. While most of the paper addresses the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) countries, its policy implications are applicable to any country. The paper finds that the best financing option is country-specific depending on a country’s economic, cultural, institutional, demographic and epidemiological characteristics, as well as political economy considerations. However, taxation should be the primary financing source. It also concludes that an appropriate and realistic benefit package would need to be designed to ensure the system’s financial viability. Regarding the optimal way to implement universal health care, certain preconditions are needed, including sound public administration, a small informal economy, and a transparent health financing system that builds social consensus.
Keywords:
WP; health cost; health system; government Health spending; health financing goal; country authorities; Health economics; government expenditure; financing system; health financing; ECCU country; ECCU health system; health card; health outcome; health system attainment; health affair; health system performance; Health care spending; Health care; Social security contributions; Aging; Caribbean