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Social Science > Demography

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 60 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
E-Commerce During COVID in Spain: One “Click” Does Not Fit All
Prachi Mishra
,
Alvaro Ortiz
,
Tomasa Rodrigo
,
Antonio Spilimbergo
, and
Sirenia Vazquez
The share of e-commerce in total credit-card spending boomed during Covid in Spain. In particular, women, youth, and urban consumers used e-commerce proportionally more during the pandemic, especially for services. Using a unique proprietary dataset on credit card transactions, we test conjectures about consumers’ behavior (based on fear, hoarding, or learning) during Covid. Overall, e-commerce share reverted to its pre-Covid trend as the pandemic waned. However, some consumers with lower pre-Covid e-commerce usage tend to permanently use more e-commerce, supporting the conjecture of “learning by locking” for these individuals.
Keywords:
e-commerce; Covid; learning; e-commerce share; aggregate consumption e-commerce; Covid trend; share of e-commerce; Covid e-commerce usage; COVID-19; Consumption; Total expenditures; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Commercial Real Estate in Crisis: Evidence from Transaction-Level Data
Mr. Adrian Alter
,
Elizabeth M. Mahoney
, and
Cristian Badarinza
During the past two decades, the commercial real estate (CRE) market has been impacted by major disruptions, including the global financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic. Using granular data from the U.S., we document how these crises have unfolded and elaborate on the role of heterogeneity and underlying shocks. Both a set of reduced-form approaches and a structural framework suggest a prominent role for demand-side local factors in the short run, along with significant shifts in preferences during crisis episodes. However, valuations become more closely linked to macro-financial factors over the long term. A one-standard deviation tightening in financial conditions is associated with a drop of about 3% in CRE prices in the following quarter, with a stronger impact on the retail sector and milder effects in states where household indebtedness is lower.
Keywords:
Non-residential Real Estate; Financial Conditions; Liquidity; Big Data; level data; CRE price; household indebtedness; CRE market; CRE transaction; COVID-19; Real estate prices; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Global; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Equitable Access to Vaccines: Myth or Reality?
Shushanik Hakobyan
,
Henry Rawlings
, and
Jiaxiong Yao
Fighting the COVID-19 pandemic required vaccinations; however, ending it requires vaccination equality. The progress in vaccinations varies greatly across countries, with low- and middle-income countries having much lower vaccination rates than advanced countries. Initially, the limited vaccine supply was in part to blame for slow pace of vaccinations in low-income countries. But as the supply constraints eased toward the end of 2021, the focus has shifted to in-country distribution challenges and vaccine hesitancy. This paper quantifies the importance of various factors in driving vaccination rates across countries, including vaccine deliveries, demographic structure, health and transport infrastructure and development level. It then estimates the contribution of these factors to vaccination inequality. We show that much of the vaccination inequality in 2021-22 was driven by the lack of access to vaccines which is beyond countries’ control. And although vaccination inequality declined over time, access to vaccines remains the dominant driver of vaccination inequality.
Keywords:
COVID-19; vaccination; access; inequality; vaccination inequality; vaccination rate; vaccine hesitancy; vaccination equality; country distribution challenge; Income inequality; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Did the COVID-19 Recession Increase the Demand for Digital Occupations in the United States? Evidence from Employment and Vacancies Data
Jiaming Soh
,
Myrto Oikonomou
,
Carlo Pizzinelli
,
Mr. Ippei Shibata
, and
Ms. Marina Mendes Tavares
This paper investigates whether the COVID-19 recession led to an increase in demand for digital occupations in the United States. Using O*NET to capture the digital content of occupations, we find that regions that were hit harder by the COVID-19 recession experienced a larger increase in the share of digital occupations in both employment and newly-posted vacancies. This result is driven, however, by the smaller decline in demand for digital workers relative to non-digital ones, and not by an absolute increase in the demand for digital workers. While our evidence supports the view that digital workers, particularly those in urban areas and cognitive occupations, were more insulated during this recession, there is little indication of a persistent shift in the demand for digital occupations.
Keywords:
IMF working paper research Department; occupations in the United States; vacancies data; cognitive occupation; digital occupation; Employment; COVID-19; Economic recession; Labor markets
Cover IMF Working Papers
Private Savings and COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa
Mr. Boileau Loko
,
Nelie Nembot
, and
Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro
The paper reexamines the main private savings determinants in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), followed by an analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic impact on private savings in SSA and other country groupings. Using an unbalanced panel data from 1983−2021 for 31 SSA economies, the paper finds that real per capita economic growth remains a key historical determinant of private savings in the region. In contrast with other regions, private saving rates have not increased during COVID-19 in SSA. Instead, COVID-19 deaths in our estimations are significantly associated with a decline in private savings in SSA. Robustness checks and a descriptive analysis of household surveys during the pandemic corroborate those results.
Keywords:
Private Savings; Sub-Saharan Africa; COVID-19; Economic Growth; savings determinants in SSA; pandemic impact; preventive measure; SSA economy; robustness check; Income; Estimation techniques; Middle East; North Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Assessing the Impact of Business Closures on COVID-19 Outcomes
Xuequan Elsie Peng
and
Chima Simpson-Bell
In this paper, we present a framework for assessing the effectiveness of different business closure policies, using New York City as a case study. Business closure policies have been widely implemented in an attempt to slow down the pandemic, but it is difficult to measure the contribution of closures of specific industries to virus transmission. Our framework allows us to estimate the impact of specific industry closures on the spread of COVID-19 via their effects on aggregate mobility. We find that early reopening led to a prolonged pandemic and a large case surge in the second wave during 2020, though the reopening allowed the city to regain its economic function as a consumption hub. An alternative policy that extends the lockdown is found to be more cost-effective as it makes future traveling safer and prevents the economy from relapsing into a more stringent policy regime.
Keywords:
business closure policy; industry contribution; Policy impact summary; industry closure; Policy timeline; IMF working papers; data construction; COVID-19; Consumption; Capacity utilization; North America; closure policy; destination industry; lockdown policy; cases data; Health care
Cover IMF Working Papers
Measuring Quarterly Economic Growth from Outer Space
Robert C. M. Beyer
,
Yingyao Hu
, and
Jiaxiong Yao
This paper presents a novel framework to estimate the elasticity between nighttime lights and quarterly economic activity. The relationship is identified by accounting for varying degrees of measurement errors in nighttime light data across countries. The estimated elasticity is 1.55 for emerging markets and developing economies, ranging from 1.36 to 1.81 across country groups and robust to different model specifications. The paper uses a light-adjusted measure of quarterly economic activity to show that higher levels of development, statistical capacity, and voice and accountability are associated with more precise national accounts data. The elasticity allows quantification of subnational economic impacts. During the COVID-19 pandemic, regions with higher levels of development and population density experienced larger declines in economic activity.
Keywords:
Nighttime lights; economic measurement; quarterly GDP; national accounts; COVID-19.; GDP growth; Summary statistics; light growth; growth measure; GDP measure; COVID-19; GDP measurement; Vector autoregression; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Finance Vaccine Equity: Funding for Day-Zero of the Next Pandemic
Ruchir Agarwal
and
Tristan Reed
A lack of timely financing for purchases of vaccines and other health products impeded the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on analysis of contract signature and delivery dates in COVID-19 vaccine advance purchase agreements, this paper finds that 60-75 percent of the delay in vaccine deliveries to low- and middle-income countries is attributable to their signing purchase agreements later than high-income countries, which placed them further behind in the delivery line. A pandemic Advance Commitment Facility with access to a credit line on day-zero of the next pandemic could allow low- and middle-income countries to secure orders earlier, ensuring a much faster and equitable global response than during COVD-19. The paper outlines four options for a financier to absorb some or all of the risk associated with the credit line and discusses how the credit would complement other proposals to strengthen the financing architecture for pandemic preparedness, prevention, and response.
Keywords:
COVID-19; pandemics; systemic risks; economic crisis; pandemic advance commitment facility; financing vaccine equity; working paper series; health product; delivery data; Lines of credit; Global; emergency financing facility; pandemic bond; prevention, preparedness, and response; pandemic preparedness partnership; purchase contract date; signing purchase agreements; next pandemic
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Global Strategy to Manage the Long-Term Risks of COVID-19
Ruchir Agarwal
,
Ms. Gita Gopinath
,
Jeremy Farrar
,
Richard Hatchett
, and
Peter Sands
The pandemic is not over, and the health and economic losses continue to grow. It is now evident that COVID-19 will be with us for the long term, and there are very different scenarios for how it could evolve, from a mild endemic scenario to a dangerous variant scenario. This realization calls for a new strategy that manages both the uncertainty and the long-term risks of COVID-19. There are four key policy implications of such as strategy. First, we need to achieve equitable access beyond vaccines to encompass a comprehensive toolkit. Second, we must monitor the evolving virus and dynamically upgrade the toolkit. Third, we must transition from the acute response to a sustainable strategy toward COVID-19, balanced and integrated with other health and social priorities. Fourth, we need a unified risk-mitigation approach to future infectious disease threats beyond COVID-19. Infectious diseases with pandemic potential are a threat to global economic and health security. The international community should recognize that its pandemic financing addresses a systemic risk to the global economy, not just the development need of a particular country. Accordingly, it should allocate additional funding to fight pandemics and strengthen health systems both domestically and overseas. This will require about $15 billion in grants this year and $10 billion annually after that.
Keywords:
COVID-19; pandemics; systemic risks; economic crisis; toolkit approach; policy implication; pandemic financing; omicron scenario; risks of COVID-19; COVID-19; Communicable diseases; Health care; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Estimating the Employment and GDP Multiplier of Emergency Cash Transfers in Brazil
Daniel Cunha
,
Ms. Joana Pereira
,
Roberto Accioly Perrelli
, and
Mr. Frederik G Toscani
We estimate the subnational employment and GDP multiplier of Brazil's 2020 federal cash transfers to vulnerable households. Using two-stage least squares regressions we estimate a formal employment multiplier and then apply an analytical transformation to recover an implied GDP multiplier in the range of 0.5-1.5. The lower bound of this range lies below most estimates in the literature, which may result from the exceptional constraints imposed by the pandemic on supply chains and consumption. Nevertheless, even using the lower end of our range implies that federal cash transfers played an important role in supporting employment and GDP.
Keywords:
Fiscal multipliers; Household cash transfers; Labor informality; GDP multiplier; employment multiplier; household cash transfer; multiplier of emergency cash transfer; cash transfer program; Employment; Informal employment; Public employment; COVID-19