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Social Science > Demography

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Cover IMF Working Papers
The Labor Market Decisions of Older Workers in Ageing Economies: Evidence from Spain and the UK
Rodrigo Barrela
,
Pragyan Deb
,
Gloria Li
, and
Carlo Pizzinelli
Faced with fiscal pressures and labor shortages from ageing populations, Advanced Economies need to ease obstacles to longer working lives. In this paper, we discuss recent developments in employment and activity of workers aged 55 and above in Spain and the UK—two countries that differ widely on historical and recent employment rate patterns as well as institutional settings. We then explore themes related to their labor market decisions, including flows into and out of the labor force, health, working arrangements, and unemployment benefits systems. The differences and commonalities between the two countries highlight the diversity of obstacles to longer working lives and the need for policies to act upon all of them. Policy priorities include addressing worsening health, improving accessibility for older workers with physical limitations, providing incentives to return to employment for the long-term unemployed, and greater flexibility in hours and working arrangments for those who have family caring duties or want to gradually transition out of work.
Keywords:
Ageing; Older Workers; Retirement; Labor Force Participation; policy priority; labor market decision; IMF working paper 2025/30; older worker; job search; early retirement; Aging; Labor markets
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Malta: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
2024 Selected Issues
Keywords:
gender income gap; labor market exposure; AI Preparedness; AI technology; use of artificial intelligence; Gender inequality; Women; Income inequality; Europe
Cover Selected Issues Papers
The Challenge of Pension Reform in Kosovo: Republic of Kosovo
Boele Bonthuis
and
Selim Thaci
This paper examines the evolution and challenges of Kosovo's pension system. Since its inception, a basic pension and mandatory individual accounts have formed the key element of Kosovo’s pension system. Over the years, the pension system has expanded to include a variety of merit pensions, occupational pensions, and a legacy pension. While spending on the basic pension remains relatively low compared to international standards, there should be a more restrictive approach to special pension benefits. To enhance the clarity and effectiveness of pension indexation, it is essential to clearly define the index used for adjustments of the basic pension.
Keywords:
Pension policy; basic pension; special pension; retirement; pension spending; legacy pension; pension indexation; merit pension; merit pension schemes; Pensions; Pension reform; Aging; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Philippines: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper focuses on potential growth and demographic dividend in Philippines. Output and employment in the Philippines were severely impacted by the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. While the Philippines recovered strongly after the pandemic, there is some evidence of scarring in output, and labor productivity remains below pre-pandemic trends. A comparison between the Philippines and peer countries along structural areas key to supporting higher growth can inform reform efforts to support higher growth. Strengthening anti-corruption efforts, while enhancing the legal system, regulatory quality, and improving the rule of law would support business certainty. At a structural level, the Philippines is on the cusp of a demographic transition but must close important structural gaps to take advantage of this potential dividend and boost growth. Under current policy settings, potential growth projections are estimated to be between 6.0–6.3 percent in the medium term. An upside scenario, which assumes ambitious and well-sequenced structural reforms, shows that growth could reach 7.0–7.5 percent over a longer time horizon.
Keywords:
supply and demand inflation decomposition; supply and demand food inflation decomposition; inflation volatility; inflation expectation; services inflation decomposition; supply and demand goods inflation decomposition; Inflation; Total factor productivity; Human capital; Labor productivity; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Benin: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper presents stylized facts on Benin’s ongoing economic transformation, and analyzes the country’s new eco-system. A recent IMF paper explores conditions under which the country’s industrial policy could meet its intended goals while avoiding unintended economic distortions down the road. While economic diversification is found to be associated with higher economic growth, evidence on the causal impact of industrial policies is hard to establish. While empirical evidence suggests that Benin’s reliance on traditional sectors, notably the Port of Cotonou, is moderating, economic diversification remains limited. The government embarked on industrial policy with the transformation of local commodities as main engine, including via the launching of a Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in 2020. It is recommending that the authorities should pursue efforts to ensure transparency in the selection of SEZ-related incentives. Intra-regional trade integration holds significant potential for Benin and could support economic diversification. Ongoing post-electoral policy shifts in Nigeria and formalization underway of economic ties between both nations, if permanent, would curb rent-seeking in Benin.
Keywords:
demographics dividend; B. addressing Internet accessibility; infrastructure investment; Beninese government; completion rate; Digitalization; Exports; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; West Africa
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Uganda: Technical Assistance Report-The Cost of Meeting the Sustainable Development Goals in Human Capital and Infrastructure Development
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
The mission estimates that making substantial progress in critical SDG sectors in Uganda would require additional annual spending of about 18.4 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2030. Relative to low-income developing countries (LIDCs), additional spending in Uganda is higher in the social sectors and lower in the infrastructure sectors (Figure). Overall, Uganda’s additional spending is above the median LIDC and similar to the median Sub-Saharan African (SSA) country. (This analysis is an assessment of the spending to achieve a high performance in selected SDGs in Uganda and does not include an examination of options to finance the spending needs.) • Health—expanding the supply of medical staff. Total health care spending is low (4.2 percent of GDP) relative to peers, and there is substantial room to increase the efficiency of spending: health outcomes are below those of several other countries with similar spending. Overall, we estimate that total health care spending would have to gradually increase by an additional 7.4 percent of GDP in 2030 relative to today’s spending, to deliver superior health care outcomes. A major contributor to the additional cost is the need to substantially increase the supply of doctors—more than 16-fold—and to nearly triple the number of other health personnel. • Education—strengthening both quality and quantity of services. Uganda’s young population—60 percent are school-aged, a higher share than in the East African Community (EAC) and LIDC peers—combined with a relatively low enrollment rate, means that the country needs to invest in getting its children into schools. However, just as important is improving the currently low level of educational quality. Toward this goal, class sizes need to fall by hiring more teachers, thus bringing the student-teacher ratio down from 28 to 19. Public spending, currently well below LIDC and EAC averages, would need to triple as a share of GDP to help deliver on these goals. We estimate that Uganda’s total expenditures on education would need to increase by an additional 6.7 percent of GDP from its current level of 7.1 percent of GDP. • Water and sanitation—aiming at safely managed water and sanitation for all. Uganda is below regional and income-group peers in water and sanitation standards. In particular, while there has been progress in water provision, sanitation services have hardly improved in the past two decades, and its provision is lower than most countries in the subregion. Closing the water and sanitation gaps will require an additional annual spending of 1.1 percent of GDP, including maintenance costs to counteract depreciation. The bulk of the cost burden comes from safely managed water in rural areas, given the relatively high unit cost of such facilities and the large rural population unserved by this type of facility. • Electricity—investing in transmission and distribution networks to increase access. The vast majority of Uganda’s electricity is generated by renewable energy (hydropower). Overall electricity consumption per capita, at 83kilowatt-hour (kWh), strongly lags LIDCs and is below what would be expected given its level of GDP per capita. Transmission and distribution networks need to catch up with installed capacity, which, at 1,347 megawatts (MW), is far ahead of peak demand at 793 MW. We estimate that expanding current access, serving the future population through 2030, and increasing consumption in line with economic growth, will require annual investments reaching 0.4 percent of GDP in 2030. • Roads—gradually increasing rural access. Raising access to roads from its current level of 53 percent of the rural population to 75 percent by 2030 will require about 20.4 thousand additional kilometers of all-weather roads. While rural road access is higher than LIDCs, road quality lags subregional peers, thus the expansion of access will also need to include upgrading of roads in that are in poor condition. We estimate that this will require annual investments of 2.8 percent of GDP in 2030.
Keywords:
Uganda; Sustainable Development Goals; Social Spending; Infrastructure Spending.; EU-International Monetary Fund; IMF resident Representative; IMF team; FAD department; SDG index; Sustainable Development Goals (SDG); Global; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Sierra Leone: Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper highlights Sierra Leone’s Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy. The Government of Sierra Leone (GoSL) has launched a new Medium-Term National Development Plan (MTNDP). Crucial lessons have been learned in the implementation of the previous plan 2019-2023 that are important for the current acceleration and transformative plan to deliver a resilient and robust economy for Sierra Leone by 2030. Accordingly, five national goals for 2030 have been identified to accelerate efforts toward achieving the country’s vision of becoming an inclusive and green middle-income country by 2039. One of the goals is to create 500,000 jobs for the youth (with at least a 30% representation of women), including skilled and unskilled, long term, as well as seasonal jobs across all sectors by 2030 (directly related to Big 5.3). While the agriculture industry experienced modest growth, its reliance on the domestic market has impeded the ability to expand agricultural exports.
Keywords:
government ministry; Medium-Term National Development Plan; government of Sierra Leone; Sierra Leone economy; Development secretary Mr. Peter Sam-Kpakra; Public sector; Global; Africa; West Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ghana: Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Ghana’s Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy. The vision of the Agenda For Jobs II (2022–2025) is to create an optimistic, self-confident and prosperous nation, through the creative exploitation of our human and natural resources, and operating within a democratic, open and fair society in which mutual trust and economic opportunities exist for all. The Services sector continues to contribute the highest share of gross domestic product (GDP) despite its decline and varied performance of 47.9 percent in 2020, 48.2 percent in 2019 and 47.0 percent in 2018. Industry’s share of GDP decreased from 33.5 percent in 2018 to 33.2 percent in 2019 and 31.6 percent in 2020. Agriculture’s contribution to GDP increased to 20.5 percent in 2020 from 19.5 percent in 2018 and 18.5 percent in 2019. Key challenges requiring attention include the proliferation of slums due to increased rural–urban migration; poor sanitation and noise pollution; weak enforcement of environmental and mining laws and regulations leading to increased illegal mining, forest degradation and water pollution.
Keywords:
Ghana learning radio programme; infrastructure gap; value chain; Ghana export promotion authority; Ghana football association; Infrastructure; West Africa; Global; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Islamic Republic of Mauritania: Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper presents Islamic Republic of Mauritania’s poverty reduction and growth strategy. With the second Strategy for Accelerated Growth and Shared Prosperity (SCAPP) Action Plan 2021–2025, Mauritania is embarking on a new phase in the implementation of its three-five-year strategy to achieve the vision “The Mauritania we want in 2030.” Mauritania, through its commitment to the implementation of the SCAPP, marks its willingness to initiate a large-scale economic, social and environmental transition, on the path of inclusive growth, economic diversification, social cohesion, respect for fundamental rights and human dignity, peace and respect for the environment. The first Action Plan 2016–2020 demonstrated that the implementation of the SCAPP was able to record convincing results. However, some of the objectives could not be achieved, in particular because of the Coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, which severely affected the world economy, and therefore the Mauritanian economy, which resulted in the emergence of new priorities. This Action Plan 2021–2025 takes into account the lessons learned from the implementation of the first and implements the necessary measures to support the country in its economic recovery and respond to the decisive challenges of the next 5 years, which will be decisive in the preparation of the third Action Plan and the achievement of the 2030 Goals.
Keywords:
Ministry of petroleum; Ministry of hydraulics; ministry of Livestock; Ministry of employment; Ministry of communication; Ministry of equipment; Ministry of trade; Infrastructure; Global; West Africa
Cover Selected Issues Papers
The Bulgarian Pension System: Caught Between Adequacy and Sustainability: Bulgaria
Jean-Jacques Hallaert
During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bulgarian authorities increased pensions substantially to support pensioners’ living standards and aggregate demand. These increases have become permanent and improved the adequacy of pensions. However, not matched by revenue measures, they have widened the deficit of the pension system. Reforms that increase the incentives to contribute to the pension system and thus revenue would improve the financial sustainability of the pension system and reduce fiscal risks.
Keywords:
Bulgaria; Pension; Pension Adequacy; Financial Sustainability; Fiscal Risk from Pensions; pension entitlement; pension level; entitlements in social insurance; IMF staff calculation; Pension spending; Pensions; Aging; Pension system sustainability; Tax allowances; Europe; Global