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Social Science > Demography

You are looking at 1 - 3 of 3 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Balance of trade x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
The Economic Impact of Natural Disasters in Pacific Island Countries: Adaptation and Preparedness
Dongyeol Lee
,
Huan Zhang
, and
Chau Nguyen
Pacific island countries are highly vulnerable to various natural disasters which are destructive, unpredictable and occur frequently. The frequency and scale of these shocks heightens the importance of medium-term economic and fiscal planning to minimize the adverse impact of disasters on economic development. This paper identifies the intensity of natural disasters for each country in the Pacific based on the distribution of damage and population affected by disasters, and estimates the impact of disasters on economic growth and international trade using a panel regression. The results show that “severe” disasters have a significant and negative impact on economic growth and lead to a deterioration of the fiscal and trade balance. We also find that the negative impact on growth is stronger for more intense disasters. Going further this paper proposes a simple and consistent method to adjust IMF staff’s economic projections and debt sustainability analysis for disaster shocks for the Pacific islands. Better incorporating the economic impact of natural disasters in the medium- and long-term economic planning would help policy makers improve fiscal policy decisions and to be better adapted and prepared for natural disasters.
Keywords:
WP; GDP growth; percentile rank; balance-to-GDP ratio; estimation result; Natural Disaster; Growth; Fiscal Balance; International Trade; Debt Sustainability; coefficient estimate; disaster year; mass movement; Natural disasters; Fiscal stance; Trade balance; Debt sustainability analysis; Pacific Islands
Cover IMF Working Papers
How Much Do Trading Partners Matter for Economic Growth?
Mr. Vivek B. Arora
and
Mr. Athanasios Vamvakidis
This paper empirically examines the extent to which a country's economic growth is influenced by its trading partner economies. Panel estimation results based on four decades of data for over 100 countries show that trading partners' growth and relative income levels have a strong effect on domestic growth, even after controlling for the influence of common global and regional trends. One interpretation is that conditional convergence is stronger, the richer are a country's trading partners. A general implication of the results is that industrial countries benefit from trading with developing countries, which grow rapidly, while developing countries benefit from trading with industrial countries, which have relatively high incomes.
Keywords:
WP; trading partner; GDP; trading partner growth; country's trading partners; International Trade; Economic Growth; trading partners' growth; growth effect; growth performance; trading partner data; Personal income; Terms of trade; Population growth; Direction of trade; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Impact of U.S. Economic Growthon the Rest of the World: How Much Does it Matter?
Mr. Athanasios Vamvakidis
and
Mr. Vivek B. Arora
This paper provides a quantitative assessment of the impact of economic growth in the United States on growth in other countries. Using panel data estimation, the paper finds a significant positive impact of U.S. growth on growth in the rest of the world, especially developing countries, during the past few decades. The evidence suggests that the impact of U.S. growth on other countries can be explained by the significance of the United States as a global trading partner. The paper provides estimates of the direct impact of trade with the United States on growth in several individual countries.
Keywords:
WP; trading partner; world growth; trade effect; Economic growth; international trade; trading-partner role; role of the United States; trade linkage; U.S. real; Latin American country; trade diversification; trading partner growth; a number of country; inflation rate; significance of the United States; Exports; Government consumption; Population growth; Trade in goods; Asia and Pacific