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Social Science > Demography

You are looking at 1 - 8 of 8 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt x
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Cover Selected Issues Papers
The Fiscal Cost of Aging in Belgium: Pensions and Healthcare
Mr. Jean-Jacques Hallaert
Belgium faces a fiscal consolidation challenge at a time when the fiscal cost of aging—primarily related to pension and health outlays—is mounting. Pension spending will increase relatively fast unless a combination of measures related to pension generosity and retirement eligibility are put in place. Potential efficiency gains are large in the health sector and could absorb part of the fiscal and reorganization costs related to an aging population.
Keywords:
Belgium; Aging; Fiscal cost of aging; Pensions; Healthcare; reorganization cost; cost of aging; cost pressure; fiscal cost; healthcare cost; Pension spending; Europe; Global
Cover Technical Notes and Manuals
IMF Engagement on Pension Issues in Surveillance and Program Work
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
and
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is increasingly involved in offering policy advice on public pension issues to member countries. Public pension spending is important from both fiscal and welfare perspectives. Pension policy and its reforms can have significant fiscal and distribution implications, can influence labor supply and labor demand decisions, and may impact consumption and savings behavior. This technical note provides guidance on assessing public pension systems’ macrocriticality, i.e., sustainability, adequacy, and efficiency; it also discusses the issues and policy trade-offs to be considered when designing responses aiming to address these dimensions of the pension system. The paper emphasizes the importance of taking a long-term, comprehensive perspective when evaluating public pension spending and providing policy advice. Where feasible, reforms should be gradual and transparent to allow individuals ample time to adjust their work and savings decisions and to facilitate consumption smoothing over their lifecycle to avoid poverty in old age. It is also important to ensure that pension systems’ design and reforms do not lead to undesirable impacts in other policy areas including general tax compliance, health insurance coverage, labor force participation among older workers, or labor market informality. The paper emphasizes the importance country-specific social and economic objectives and constraints, as well as political economy realities – factors that can determine whether a pension reform is a success or failure.
Keywords:
Fiscal Policy; Social Protection; Pensions; Fiscal Sustainability; Defined Benefit; Defined Contribution; pension policy; policy engagement; Policy advice; General consideration; pension provision; C. IMF-supported program; Pension spending; Pension reform; Aging; Europe; Africa; Global; Southeast Asia; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Counting the Oil Money and the Elderly: Norway's Public Sector Balance Sheet
Ezequiel Cabezon
and
Christian Henn
Based on a permanent income analysis, Gagnon (2018) has prominently suggested that Norway has saved too much, thereby free-riding on the rest of the world for demand. Our public sector balance sheet analysis comes to the opposite conclusion, chiefly because it also accounts for future aging costs. Unsurprisingly, we find that Norway’s current assets exceed its liabilities by some 340 percent of mainland GDP. But its nonoil fiscal deficits have grown very large (to almost 8 percent of mainland GDP) and aging pressures are only commencing. Therefore, Norway’s intertemporal financial net worth (IFNW) is negative, at about -240 percent of mainland GDP. As IFNW represents an intertemporal budget constraint, this implies that Norway’s savings are likely insufficient to address aging costs without additional fiscal action.
Keywords:
WP; mainland GDP; oil price; GPFG asset; asset price; asset stock; Public Sector Balance Sheet; Intertemporal Fiscal Balances; Debt Sustainability; Norway; statistics Norway; Norwegian krone; Norway's intertemporal financial net worth; Intertemporal public sector balance sheet; Norway's assets; Norway's IFNW; nonfinancial assets; GPFG consist; price development; Financial statements; Oil prices; Asset prices; Aging; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Demographic Changes in Latin America: The Good, the Bad and …
Mr. Santiago Acosta Ormaechea
,
Marco A Espinosa-Vega
, and
Diego Wachs
The paper develops a simple, integrated methodology to project public pension cash flows and healthcare spending over the long term. We illustrate its features by applying it to the LAC5 (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico), where public spending pressures are expected to increase significantly over 2015-50 due to demographic trends and rising healthcare costs. We simulate alternative pension reforms, including the transition from a defined benefit to a defined contribution pension system and the fiscal burden of a minimum guaranteed pension under the latter. We also analyze public healthcare outlays in the LAC5, which is likewise expected to increase significantly over 2015-50 due to aging and the so-called excess cost growth factor of healthcare services, showing that curbing the evolution of the latter (e.g., through enhanced competition in the healthcare sector) could aid in containing spending pressures. Despite its simplicity, the methodology yields projections that compare well with other approaches. It therefore provides a good benchmark for assessing alternative reform scenarios, particularly in data-constrained countries.
Keywords:
WP; inflation rate; defined contribution; DC system; replacement rate; DB system; pension system; public pension spending; public healthcare spending; aging; pension system reforms; contribution rate; cash flow; Pension spending; Pensions; Retirement; Western Hemisphere
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
The Fiscal Consequences of Shrinking Populations
Mr. Benedict J. Clements
,
Mr. Kamil Dybczak
,
Vitor Gaspar
,
Mr. Sanjeev Gupta
, and
Mauricio Soto
This Staff Discussion Note looks at the stark fiscal challenges posed by the decline and aging of populations between now and 2100. It finds that without reforms, pensions and health spending would rise to 25 percent of GDP by end-century in more developed countries (and 16 percent of GDP in less developed countries), with potentially dire fiscal consequences. Given the uncertainty underlying the population projections and associated large fiscal risks, a multi-pronged approach will be required. This could include entitlement reform—starting now but at a gradual pace; policies that affect demographics and labor markets; and better tax systems and more efficient public expenditure.
Keywords:
SDN; dependency ratio; ratio; spending; Aging; Demographics; Public Debt; Pension Spending; Health Spending; Population Growth; health care; old-age dependency ratio; age-related spending; labor market; present discounted value; Health care spending; Migration; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Assessing Fiscal Risks in Bangladesh
Leandro Medina
This paper identifies, quantifies, and assesses fiscal risks in Bangladesh. By performing sensitivity analysis and using stochastic simulations, it measures risks arising from shocks to GDP growth, the exchange rate, commodity prices, and interest rates. It also analyzes specific fiscal and institutional risks, such as those related to the pension system, the issuance of guarantees, the state-owned commercial banks, and the external borrowing and debt management strategy. The paper finds that fiscal aggregates are particularly sensitive to shocks to commodity prices and exchange rates. Other factors that could affect fiscal aggregates are the unfunded pension system and the limited institutional capacity.
Keywords:
WP; debt; expenditure; IMF staff calculation; Bangladesh; commodity prices; contingent liabilities; exchange rate; fiscal risks; sovereign debt; pensions; guarantees; Bangladesh authorities; commodity price; debt record; debt disbursement; vis-à-vis budget figure; basic salary; poverty line; collection data; Bangladesh face; Bangladesh's government; shocks to GDP growth; debt structure; Pension spending; Macroeconomic risks; South Asia; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Austria: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper focuses on the medium-term budgetary framework (MTBF) for Austria. Austria is part of a trend among many countries to consider some form of MTBF. This paper describes the proposed framework in Austria and assesses it in light of the experience of other countries. The general conclusion is that the track records are mixed, but that, on balance, the experiences with MTBFs have been favorable. The paper also examines the long-term fiscal challenges arising from demographic change.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; retirement age; expenditure; fiscal policy rule; early retirement; pension expenditure; expenditure projection; multiyear expenditure rule; pension pillar; medium-term-oriented fiscal policies; corridor pension; Pension spending; Aging; Medium-term budget frameworks; Retirement; Australia and New Zealand; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ireland: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper for Ireland highlights that fiscal consolidation resulted in a tremendous reduction in public debt from nearly 100 percent of GDP in 1991 to about 30 percent in 2004. This has reflected a combination of policy decisions and economic circumstances. Excluding 2001, when the economy has been affected by the global economic slowdown, Ireland has in general consistently enjoyed favorable surprises in its public finances. Indeed, during this period, the actual fiscal outturns have exceeded budget forecasts on average by 0.3 percent of GDP a year.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Ireland; rate; labor market; revenue; saving rate; replacement rate; median saving ratio; growth prospect; household savings; mean error; incentive account; Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts; Income; Unemployment; Aging; Budget planning and preparation; Europe; Australia and New Zealand; Global