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Social Science > Demography

You are looking at 1 - 3 of 3 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • National Budget, Deficit, and Debt: General x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Counting the Oil Money and the Elderly: Norway's Public Sector Balance Sheet
Ezequiel Cabezon
and
Christian Henn
Based on a permanent income analysis, Gagnon (2018) has prominently suggested that Norway has saved too much, thereby free-riding on the rest of the world for demand. Our public sector balance sheet analysis comes to the opposite conclusion, chiefly because it also accounts for future aging costs. Unsurprisingly, we find that Norway’s current assets exceed its liabilities by some 340 percent of mainland GDP. But its nonoil fiscal deficits have grown very large (to almost 8 percent of mainland GDP) and aging pressures are only commencing. Therefore, Norway’s intertemporal financial net worth (IFNW) is negative, at about -240 percent of mainland GDP. As IFNW represents an intertemporal budget constraint, this implies that Norway’s savings are likely insufficient to address aging costs without additional fiscal action.
Keywords:
WP; mainland GDP; oil price; GPFG asset; asset price; asset stock; Public Sector Balance Sheet; Intertemporal Fiscal Balances; Debt Sustainability; Norway; statistics Norway; Norwegian krone; Norway's intertemporal financial net worth; Intertemporal public sector balance sheet; Norway's assets; Norway's IFNW; nonfinancial assets; GPFG consist; price development; Financial statements; Oil prices; Asset prices; Aging; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Should Public Pensions be Funded?
Mr. Richard Hemming
This paper outlines some of the arguments for and against the funding of public pensions, with a view to establishing whether there is an economic basis for judging funding to be superior to pay-as-you-go (PAYG). It is argued that funding does not have a clear advantage, and the case for a shift from PAYG to funding is thus an uneasy one. There is nonetheless growing advocacy of funded public pensions as part of an ideal pension system, which raises more general issues about the role of the public sector in pension provision.
Keywords:
WP; contribution rate; PAYG scheme; PAYG liability; PAYG rate; real interest rate; Public pensions; funding; pay-as-you-go; aging populations; PAYG financing; pension liability; PAYG contract; Pension spending; Pensions; Pension reform; Aging; Public sector; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Japan's Medium: and Long-Term Fiscal Challenges
K. Okamura
This paper assesses the sustainability of Japan’s fiscal position. The simulations indicate that, even if the government’s pension reform plan is fully implemented, the initial budget imbalance, combined with pressures from population aging, would lead to explosive increases in government deficits and debt. Present-value calculations point to a fiscal “gap” of about 4 percent of GDP, indicating the combination of tax increases and/or spending cuts that would be required to generate a sustainable long-run fiscal position. Finally, the paper presents an illustrative package of tax and spending measures that could be implemented to close this gap.
Keywords:
WP; debt; estimate; Japan; effect; revenue effect; percent of GDP; debt stock; GDP rise; debt accumulation; Pensions; Pension reform; Aging; Public investment spending; Current spending