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Social Science > Demography

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 124 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General x
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Cover Departmental Papers
Long-Term Spending Pressures in Europe
Stephanie Eble
,
Alexander Pitt
,
Irina Bunda
,
Oyun Erdene Adilbish
,
Nina Budina
,
Gee Hee Hong
,
Moheb T Malak
,
Sabiha Mohona
,
Alla Myrvoda
, and
Keyra Primus
European countries face high, rising, and long-lasting spending pressures, calling for a renewed focus on fiscal policy and comprehensive structural reforms to prepare their economies for the future. On top of existing fiscal consolidation needs, spending pressures in five key areas are imminent and growing in Europe: pensions and healthcare/long-term care driven by population aging; climate transition; increased defense spending; and higher borrowing costs. Some pressures are immediate, others will build up over time. Projections indicate that additional expenditures could reach 5¾ percent of GDP annually by 2050 in Advanced Europe and 8 percent in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe (CESEE). Addressing these challenges will require extensive efforts, including enhancing institutional capacity and implementing deep structural reforms to manage spending, ensure adequate revenue, and meet environmental, social, and security objectives. Policymakers must also consider the distributional impacts of reforms, particularly on vulnerable households. A broad reform agenda tailored to country circumstances is essential, with urgent actions needed in many countries to ensure the sustainability of pension systems and to combat climate change through fiscal instruments like carbon pricing. Increased revenue mobilization, particularly in CESEE, and the reduction of inefficient spending are critical for creating fiscal space for priority expenditures. Strengthening the EU's fiscal capacity to provide common public goods such as climate, defense, energy security, and R&D and implementing structural reforms to enhance growth potential are also vital. However, raising awareness of these issues and implementing the necessary reforms will be challenging. A well-designed fiscal framework that incorporates long-term spending pressures, supported by comprehensive analysis and data, is crucial for informing public debate and guiding national decision-making to ensure that spending pressures are adequately addressed. Ultimately, inaction is not an option, as it risks fiscal sustainability and the fulfillment of priority spending needs.
Keywords:
Fiscal policy; structural reforms; climate; defense; demographics; aging; health; public debt; fiscal institutions; spending pressure; member states; EU climate goal; increase EU resilience; emissions trading system; EU financing; EU rule; carbon border adjustment mechanism; EU budget; EU country; climate goal; spending needs; Pension spending; Defense spending; Pensions; Europe; priority spending needs; data from European Union; inefficient spending; long-term spending pressure
Cover IMF Working Papers
Navigating Minefields and Headwinds: National Security, Demographic Shifts, Climate Change and Fiscal Policy in Lithuania
Serhan Cevik
Lithuania’s immediate fiscal challenges are national security and higher costs of borrowing, but fiscal prospects are further exacerbated by long-term pressures stemming from climate change and a shrinking and aging population. The country has experienced a rapidly decreasing population—from 3.7 million in 1991 to 2.8 million in 2023—and its old-age dependency ratio is consequently expected to increase from 33 percent in 2023 to 53.4 percent by 2050. The resulting long-term spending pressures are projected to amount to as much as 11.2 percent of GDP, which is about 30 percent of the current level of spending. Debt sustainability concerns would not allow financing additional spending with more debt. Hence, a comprehensive strategy will help address these long-term fiscal challenges, including tax policy changes to raise additional revenue while primarily reducing expenditure needs through pension and healthcare reforms.
Keywords:
Military spending; interest rates; climate change; demographics; pension; healthcare; tax policy; fiscal sustainability; Lithuania; debt sustainability concern; dependency ratio; headwinds national security; spending pressure; old-age dependency ratio; Aging; Pension spending; Global; Europe
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
United Kingdom-Montserrat-British Overseas Territory: Technical Assistance Report-Report on External Sector Statistics Mission (March 18–28, 2024)
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
and
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
A technical assistance (TA) mission on external sector statistics (ESS) was conducted for the Statistics Department of Montserrat (SDM), during March 18–28, 2024. The mission was undertaken as part of the Caribbean Regional Technical Assistance Centre (CARTAC) work program on ESS. The main purpose of this mission was to assist the SDM in extrapolating the results of the Visitor Expenditure Survey (VES) conducted by the SDM and Montserrat Tourism Division (MTD). The purpose of the VES was to enhance estimates of travel services credits recorded in the current account of the balance of payments (BOP).
Keywords:
Montserrat; balance of payments statistics; travel exports; visitor expenditure survey.; excursionist visitor; IMF's Statistics Department; travel credit; cruise visitor; visitor expenditure survey; Credit; External sector statistics; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
E-Commerce During COVID in Spain: One “Click” Does Not Fit All
Prachi Mishra
,
Alvaro Ortiz
,
Tomasa Rodrigo
,
Antonio Spilimbergo
, and
Sirenia Vazquez
The share of e-commerce in total credit-card spending boomed during Covid in Spain. In particular, women, youth, and urban consumers used e-commerce proportionally more during the pandemic, especially for services. Using a unique proprietary dataset on credit card transactions, we test conjectures about consumers’ behavior (based on fear, hoarding, or learning) during Covid. Overall, e-commerce share reverted to its pre-Covid trend as the pandemic waned. However, some consumers with lower pre-Covid e-commerce usage tend to permanently use more e-commerce, supporting the conjecture of “learning by locking” for these individuals.
Keywords:
e-commerce; Covid; learning; e-commerce share; aggregate consumption e-commerce; Covid trend; share of e-commerce; Covid e-commerce usage; COVID-19; Consumption; Total expenditures; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Angola: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper explores development planning, sustainable development goals (SDG) progress, and fiscal space in Angola. Economic diversification and poverty reduction in Angola will require more and better-quality spending on human and physical capital and, thus, greater fiscal space. Spending in these areas has historically been lower relative to lower middle-income country peers, although broadly in line with other SSA countries, and with weak outcomes. Boosting human and physical capital with the goal of economic diversification and poverty reduction in mind will likely be a primary focus of the authorities’ 2023-27 National Development Plan. This paper finds that achieving those goals, as benchmarked by the SDGs, will entail greater and more targeted investment, with the largest spending needs falling around education and health. As such, creating additional fiscal space, following through on the structural fiscal reform agenda, and attracting private investment will all be critical components of improving the level and quality of development spending in Angola.
Keywords:
SDG progress; D. SDG performance; financing framework; growth disorder; guarantee scheme; Credit; Sustainable Development Goals (SDG); Health care spending; Total expenditures; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Angola: Temas Seleccionados
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Temas Seleccionados
Keywords:
SDG progress; D. SDG performance; financing framework; growth disorder; guarantee scheme; Credit; Sustainable Development Goals (SDG); Health care spending; Total expenditures; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Spending Efficiency and Reforms: France
Iulia Ruxandra Teodoru
and
Ruud Vermeulen
To rebuild fiscal buffers after large fiscal responses to successive shocks over 2020-22, France will need to reverse the trend spending increase observed over the last three decades through structural spending reforms. This paper identifies areas where scope for savings or efficiency gains exist based on an evaluation of the level and efficiency of public spending in France relative to European peers, using benchmarking analysis and stochastic frontier analysis to derive efficiency frontiers. Reforming social protection, health, education, and civil service, and rationalizing tax expenditures should preserve or improve outcomes while generating savings that would help meet medium-term adjustment needs.
Keywords:
Public Expenditure; Efficiency; Fiscal Consolidation; Fiscal Policy; France; efficiency frontier; efficiency gain; frontier analysis; IMF staff calculation; spending gap; Tax expenditures; Aging; Europe; Global
Cover Technical Notes and Manuals
IMF Engagement on Pension Issues in Surveillance and Program Work
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
and
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is increasingly involved in offering policy advice on public pension issues to member countries. Public pension spending is important from both fiscal and welfare perspectives. Pension policy and its reforms can have significant fiscal and distribution implications, can influence labor supply and labor demand decisions, and may impact consumption and savings behavior. This technical note provides guidance on assessing public pension systems’ macrocriticality, i.e., sustainability, adequacy, and efficiency; it also discusses the issues and policy trade-offs to be considered when designing responses aiming to address these dimensions of the pension system. The paper emphasizes the importance of taking a long-term, comprehensive perspective when evaluating public pension spending and providing policy advice. Where feasible, reforms should be gradual and transparent to allow individuals ample time to adjust their work and savings decisions and to facilitate consumption smoothing over their lifecycle to avoid poverty in old age. It is also important to ensure that pension systems’ design and reforms do not lead to undesirable impacts in other policy areas including general tax compliance, health insurance coverage, labor force participation among older workers, or labor market informality. The paper emphasizes the importance country-specific social and economic objectives and constraints, as well as political economy realities – factors that can determine whether a pension reform is a success or failure.
Keywords:
Fiscal Policy; Social Protection; Pensions; Fiscal Sustainability; Defined Benefit; Defined Contribution; pension policy; policy engagement; Policy advice; General consideration; pension provision; C. IMF-supported program; Pension spending; Pension reform; Aging; Europe; Africa; Global; Southeast Asia; Eastern Europe
Cover Technical Notes and Manuals
Compliance Risk Management: Developing Compliance Improvement Plans
Mr. John D Brondolo
,
Annette Chooi
,
Trevor Schloss
, and
Anthony Siouclis
All tax administrations seek to maximize the overall level of compliance with tax laws. Compliance improvement plans (CIPs) are a valuable tool for increasing taxpayers’ compliance and boosting tax revenue. This note is intended to help tax administrations develop a CIP, by providing guidance on the following issues: (1) how to identify and rate compliance risks; (2) how to treat risks to achieve the best possible outcome; and (3) how to measure the impacts that treatments have had on compliance outcomes.
Keywords:
Taxes; tax compliance; revenue; revenue administration; risk management; risk rating; risk treatment template; compliance risk-management framework; medium-sized business; value-added tax obligation; FAD Technical Notes; Tax administration core functions; Compliance risk management; Compliance improvement plans; Interest rate parity; Tax return filing compliance; Africa; Global
Cover IMF Research Perspectives
IMF Research Perspectives: Spring/Summer 2021
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
IMF Research Perspectives: Spring/Summer 2021
Keywords:
IMF research perspective; government spending multiplier; R&D effort; IMF CSF; central bank financing; COVID-19; Bank credit; Fiscal stance; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Europe; Africa