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Social Science > Demography

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Japan: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Japan
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Japan highlights that the rapid aging and shrinking of Japan’s population has become central to macroeconomic policies and outcomes. The consultation centered on the macroeconomic effects of Japan’s demographics. Mutually reinforcing policies are needed to lift current and expected inflation, stabilize public debt, and raise potential growth. Underlying growth is expected to remain resilient but will be increasingly challenged by slowing external demand and intensifying demographic headwinds. Growth in domestic demand is being eroded by the weaker external environment. Frontloading of private consumption ahead of the October 2019 consumption tax rate increase appears to have been smaller than in 2014.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; CPI headline inflation; Japan; BOJ's core-core inflation; core inflation; core inflation forecast; Japan-EU trade agreements; stimulus package; Inflation; Consumption taxes; Aging; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
People’s Republic of China-Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper discusses income inequality in Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR). Income inequality in Hong Kong SAR remains high, despite declining recently. Redistributive policies implemented by the authorities have helped to lower income inequality. However, inequality is likely to rise in the medium-term due to aging and thus more needs to be done. A package of policies could lower the Gini index by 3–4 points by 2050 including: more progressive salaries tax; higher reliance on recurrent property taxes; and increased public expenditure on social welfare, health, housing, education and childcare. According to recent evidence in the literature, these policies could also boost growth by 0.2–0.5 percentage points per year. Public spending on social welfare could continue to be raised to boost redistribution and increase access of poorer households. Spending on education and childcare should be raised to help lower the market income inequality directly. The commissioned study aiming to determine the demand and supply for childcare services and map out the long-term service development programs, as well as the initiatives mentioned in the 2018 Policy Address, should help in this regard.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; financial condition; Hong Kong SAR; Gini coefficient; revenue loss; CIT rate; estimate revenue spillover; financial conditions; Income inequality; Corporate income tax; Income distribution; Personal income; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
On Financing Retirement, Health, and Long-term Care in Japan
Ellen R. McGrattan
,
Kazuaki Miyachi
, and
Adrian Peralta
Japan faces the problem of how to finance retirement, health, and long-term care expenditures as the population ages. This paper analyzes the impact of policy options intended to address this problem by employing a dynamic general equilibrium overlapping generations model, specifically parameterized to match both the macroeconomic and microeconomic level data of Japan. We find that financing the costs of aging through gradual increases in the consumption tax rate delivers a better macroeconomic performance and higher welfare for most individuals than other financing options, including those of raising social security contributions, debt financing, and a uniform increase in health and long-term care copayments.
Keywords:
WP; consumption tax; labor income; copayment rate; taxation scenario; income spectrum; retirement; health care; taxation; aging; Japan; Consumption taxes; Income; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Japan: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Japan
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The rapid aging and shrinking of Japan’s population will dominate economic policy making in coming decades—impelling a fresh look at the objectives and tools of Abenomics. Six years of Abenomics have yielded some important results, but achieving sustained high growth and durable reflation, while also tackling debt sustainability and a shifting global economic landscape, will require strengthened policies.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; headline CPI inflation; Japan's Cabinet Office; money market rate; government bond bond yield; guide inflation expectation; price pressure; BoJ's target; Consumption taxes; Inflation; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Fading Ricardian Equivalence in Ageing Japan
Ikuo Saito
Japan seems to be turning less Ricardian, a trend set to continue. First, the discount wedge seems to have risen, suggesting that consumers have become more myopic. Second, some evidence points to the possibility that an increasing number of households are liquidity constrained. If these developments continue, the impact of fiscal policy on the economy will gradually rise. While this will facilitate using fiscal policy to manage the economic cycle, it also calls for starting fiscal consolidation soon and in a gradual and steady manner, given the unsustainable public debt and the likely increasing challenges in funding the government's rising debt domestically.
Keywords:
WP; liquidity constraint; Japan; ageing; Ricardian equivalence; myopia; liquidity constraints; multipliers; fiscal policy; public debt; Japan liquidity; consumption tax increase; consumer ratio; Consumption taxes; Liquidity; Aging; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Poland: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Poland
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper describes mainly the introduction and performance of the Extended Fund Facility program for Pakistan. Since the start of the program in September 2013, economic growth has gradually recovered, inflation has fallen to low single digits, foreign reserve buffers have been rebuilt, social safety nets have been strengthened, and the fiscal deficit has significantly declined (although public debt remains high). Despite setbacks in privatization earlier in the year due to labor unrest and political opposition, the authorities remain committed to returning ailing public sector enterprises to a sound financial position, including through private participation, and to completing energy sector reform.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; tax-free allowance; constitutional court-mandated personal income tax; PIT framework; staff appraisal; retirement age; IMF staff calculation; Inflation; Bank levy; Government finance statistics; Aging; Labor force participation; Global; Central and Eastern Europe
Cover Can Abenomics Succeed?
Can Abenomics Succeed?
Overcoming the Legacy of Japan's Lost Decades
Mr. Dennis P Botman
,
Mr. Stephan Danninger
, and
Mr. Jerald A Schiff

Abstract

Japan’s revitalization plan, dubbed the “three arrows of Abenomics,” devises a three-pronged strategy—combining fiscal, monetary, and structural policies—to overcome that country’s apparent inability to sustain economic recovery. This book is the first comprehensive assessment of Abenomics and the reforms needed to make it a success, including aggressive monetary easing, growth-friendly fiscal consolidation, and structural and financial sector reforms.

Keywords:
BOOK; firm; Japan; BoJ purchase; inflation expectation; risk capital; BoJ asset purchase; wage growth; Pension spending; Aging; Labor markets; Inflation; Global; Northern Europe; Asia and Pacific; Corporate income tax
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Serbia: Selected Issues Paper
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper on Serbia’s Article IV Consultation reviews the precrisis growth paradigm and its legacy vulnerabilities. The underlying growth model proved vulnerable to shocks, being associated with a high share of nontradable, low domestic savings, and a fragile external position. Convergence to EU income levels was relatively moderate. Economic growth fell following the onset of the global financial crisis and further slowed the pace of convergence. Serbia’s postcrisis income gap remains larger by comparison to more advanced regional economies. Structural bottlenecks continue to undermine overall competitiveness and constrain growth potential.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Serbia; deficit; pension; GDP; indexation rule; tax expenditure; FDI inflow; greenfield FDI; resource revenue account; Corporate income tax; Aging; Wages; Pensions; Global; Europe
Cover Departmental Papers
From Stimulus to Consolidation: Revenue and Expenditure Policies in Advanced and Emerging Economies
Mr. Benedict J. Clements
,
Mr. Juan Toro R.
, and
Ms. Victoria J Perry
This paper identifies policy tools that could be used for fiscal consolidation in advanced and emerging economies in the years ahead. The consolidation strategy, particularly in advanced countries, should aim to stabilize age-related spending in relation to GDP, reduce non-age-related expenditure ratios, and increase revenues. Bold reforms are needed to offset projected increases in age-related spending, particularly health care. On the revenue side, measures could include improving tax compliance, for example through better international cooperation, as well as increasing the yield from VAT by eliminating exemptions and reduced rates, further developing property taxes, and increasing excise rates within the range of rates already applicable in comparable countries.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; revenue enhancement; income tax; public expenditure; tax revenue; retirement age; debt ratio; potential GDP; Health care spending; Pension spending; Aging; Africa; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Alternative Fiscal Rules for Norway
Mr. Daniel Leigh
and
Mr. Etibar Jafarov
This paper considers long-term fiscal policy options in Norway, the world's fifth largest oil exporter, in light of the substantial expected increase in pension outlays. It compares the current fiscal rule, which targets a (central government structural) non-oil deficit equal to 4 percent of Government Pension Fund assets, with three alternatives that save a larger share of oil revenue and accumulate more assets to pay for aging costs. It also analyzes the macroeconomic consequences of accumulating more assets, finding that the additional income generated from more assets allows lower tax rates, with positive effects on long-term output.
Keywords:
WP; GDP; GPF assets; budget