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Social Science > Demography

You are looking at 1 - 8 of 8 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Structure, Scope, and Performance of Government x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Doing More with Less: How Can Brazil Foster Development While Pursuing Fiscal Consolidation?
Valentina Flamini
and
Mauricio Soto
Following a benchmarking exercise, we estimate the spending required to reach satisfactory progress in the Sustainable Development Goals in the health, education, and infrastructure sectors in Brazil. We find that there is room for savings in education (up to 1.5 percentage point of GDP) and health (up to 2.5 percentage points of GDP) without compromising the quality of services but additional investments for over 3 percent of GDP per year are needed to close large infrastructure gaps in roads, water, and electricity by 2030. Brazil can do more with less, but increasing efficiency of public spending will require substantial reforms.
Keywords:
WP; spending; cost; infrastructure gap; generation capacity; SDGs; development; fiscal policy; public spending; Brazil; pf GDP; Health expenditure distribution; spending ceiling; GDP Capita; Infrastructure SDG cost; GDP loss; cost estimate; Brazil's GDP; infrastructure quality; spending floor; Infrastructure; Health care spending; South America
Cover IMF Working Papers
Attaining Selected Sustainable Development Goals in Guatemala: Spending, Provision, and Financing Needs
Mrs. Esther Perez Ruiz
and
Mauricio Soto
Raising living standards continues to be the main challenge facing Guatemala, as a matter of economic success and social cohesion. This paper discusses the spending, financing, and delivery capacity aspects of a viable development strategy for Guatemala couched within the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) agenda. Overall, Guatemala faces additional spending of about 8½ percent of GDP in 2030 to attain health, education, and roads, water, and sanitation infrastructure SDGs. While substantial, these cost estimates are commensurate with a well-defined financing strategy encompassing continuing tax administration efforts, broad-based tax reform, scaled-up private sector participation, and greater spending efficiency. Improving delivery capacities is also essential to secure access of those public goods to all Guatemalans, irrespective of their place of residence, ethnic group, or ability to pay.
Keywords:
WP; development outcome; private sector; provision level; spending needs; secondary education; Sustainable Development Goals; Development; Fiscal Policy; healthcare system; spending objective; health risk; Guatemala's healthcare system; education outcome; Guatemala's development outcome; cost saving; Infrastructure; Public expenditure review; Central America
Cover IMF Working Papers
Fragmentation and Vertical Fiscal Imbalances Lessons from Moldova
Mr. Serhan Cevik
Using a novel municipality-level panel dataset, this paper investigates the empirical characteristics of vertical fiscal imbalances (VFIs) in Moldova over the period 2005–13. The results show that the extent of variation in VFIs across 898 municipalities can be explained by the level of per capita income, fiscal capacity, and demographic characteristics, as well as the central government’s fiscal behavior that reflects fiscal constraints and policy preferences at the national level. Political affiliation does not appear to be a significant factor, and the results are inconclusive in terms of direction. While some model specifications show larger VFIs when the mayor of a municipality belongs to the same party ruling the central government, other models suggest better coordination and thus lower VFIs. Altogether, these findings underscore the need for well-coordinated reforms to create economies of scale, enhance revenue collection, and improve the composition of spending at the subnational level.
Keywords:
WP; central government; revenue; vertical fiscal imbalances; Vertical fiscal imbalance; fiscal decentralization; subnational governments; budget balance; finance statistics; fiscal policy stance; revenue effort; effort variable; dependency ratio; restructuring revenue administration; mean value; Fiscal federalism; Budget planning and preparation; Global
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Direct Distribution of Resource Revenues: Worth Considering?
Mr. Sanjeev Gupta
,
Mr. Alex Segura-Ubiergo
, and
Enrique Flores
Some scholars have argued that direct distribution of natural resource revenues to the population would help resource-rich countries escape the “resource curse.” This discussion note analyzes whether this proposal is a viable policy alternative for resource-rich countries. The first priority for policymakers is to establish fiscal policy objectives to support macroeconomic stability and development objectives. In this regard, the establishment of an adequate fiscal framework that informs decisions on how much to save and invest, or how to smooth out revenue volatility, and deal with exhaustibility issues should precede any discussion of direct distribution of resource wealth to the population.
Keywords:
SDN; resource revenue; natural resource; governments Bloated; country authorities; resource curse; resource wealth; natural resources; resource wealth management; direct redistribution; fiscal policy; cash transfers; resource exhaustibility; revenues DDMs; Income; Currencies; Middle East; North Africa; East Africa
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Distribución directa de los ingresos provenientes de recursos naturales: ¿Vale la pena considerarla?
Mr. Sanjeev Gupta
,
Mr. Alex Segura-Ubiergo
, and
Enrique Flores
Algunos académicos han sostenido que la distribución directa a la población de ingresos públicos provenientes de recursos naturales ayudaría a los países ricos en recursos naturales a escapar de la “maldición de los recursos naturales”. Este documento analiza si esta propuesta constituye una alternativa política viable para países ricos en recursos naturales. La primera prioridad para los responsables de la formulación de políticas en los países ricos en materias primas consiste en establecer los objetivos de política fiscal para promover la estabilidad macroeconómica y el desarrollo de las economías. En este sentido, el establecimiento de un marco fiscal adecuado que aporte información para tomar decisiones sobre cuánto ahorrar y cuánto invertir, cómo atenuar la volatilidad de los ingresos públicos, y cómo abordar los problemas relacionados con el agotamiento de los recursos naturales debe preceder cualquier análisis sobre distribución directa de recursos a la población.
Keywords:
SDN; resource revenue; natural resource; governments Bloated; country authorities; resource curse; resource wealth
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Aging of the Population and the Size of the Welfare State
Mr. Phillip L Swagel
,
Efraim Sadka
, and
Assaf Razin
Data for the United States and countries in Western Europe indicate a negative correlation between the dependency ratio and both labor tax rates and the generosity of social transfers, after controlling for other factors that influence the size of the welfare state. This is despite the increased political clout of the dependent population implied by the aging of the population. This paper develops a model of intra-and inter-generational transfers and human capital formation which addresses this seeming puzzle. We show that with democratic voting, a higher dependency ratio can lead to lower taxes or less generous social transfers.
Keywords:
WP; tax rate; income tax; tax burden; aging; dependency ratio; political economy; labor tax; labor income; equilibrium tax rate; labor tax rate; income share; transfer element; equilibrium tax-transfer policy; Personal income; Labor taxes; Europe; Western Europe; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Districting and Government Overspending
Reza Baqir
The common-pool problem is a central issue in the relationship between the political structure of jurisdictions and the size of public spending. Models predict that, other things being equal, greater political districting of a jurisdiction raises the scale of government. This paper presents new evidence on this and related predictions from a cross-section of city governments in the United States. The main finding is that one additional legislator is associated, on average, with 3 percent larger expenditures per capita. Evidence also suggests that forms of government with strong executives, particularly those with veto powers, break the link between districting and government size.
Keywords:
WP; government size; form of government; government expenditure; government spending; fiscal institutions; electoral systems; comparative politics; city government; mayor-council forms of government entail; manger-council forms of government; government scale; government employment regression; government program; Personal income; Public employment; Income inequality; State decentralization; city government structure; scale of government; Income
Cover IMF Working Papers
Reforming Pensions: Myths, Truths, and Policy Choices
Mr. N. A. Barr
This paper discusses the strategic building blocks of pension reform. The early sections set out the simple economics of pensions and discuss a series of myths which have proved remarkably persistent. Subsequent sections draw together the conclusions for policy design from earlier theoretical discussion, set out the prerequisites which any pension reform must respect, and discuss the range of choices facing policymakers. The main conclusions are threefold: the key variable is effective government; from an economic perspective the difference between PAYG and funding is second order; and the range of potential choice over pension design is wide.
Keywords:
WP; net present value; PAYG scheme; rate of return; public spending; interest rate; private sector; Pensions; funding; Pay-As-You-Go; demographic change; U.K. government actuary; PAYG pension; retirement age; government-operated fund; excess demand; state scheme; Pension spending; Aging; Retirement; Global