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Social Science > Demography

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 10 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Aging Gracefully: Steering the Banking Sector through Demographic Shifts
Patrick A. Imam
and
Christian Schmieder
We analyze how aging populations might affect the stability of banking systems through changes in the balance sheets and risk preferences of banks over the period 2000-2022. While the anticipated decline in maturity transformation due to aging hints at a possible reduction in risk exposure, an older population may propel banks towards yield-seeking behaviors, offsetting the diminishing prominence of conventional lending operations. Through a comprehensive examination of advanced economies over the past two decades, our findings reveal a general enhancement in bank stability correlating with the aging of populations. However, the adaptive responses of banks to these demographic changes are potentially introducing tail risks. Given the rapid global shift towards aging societies, our analysis highlights the critical need for policymakers to be proactive and vigilant. This is particularly pertinent considering historical precedents where periods of relative stability have often been harbingers of emerging risks.
Keywords:
Aging; Demographics; Bank risk-taking; Financial Stability; IMF working paper No. 24/118; tail risk; risk preference; stability risk; solvency profile; bank assets; Commercial banks; Bank soundness; Loans; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Commercial Real Estate in Crisis: Evidence from Transaction-Level Data
Mr. Adrian Alter
,
Elizabeth M. Mahoney
, and
Cristian Badarinza
During the past two decades, the commercial real estate (CRE) market has been impacted by major disruptions, including the global financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic. Using granular data from the U.S., we document how these crises have unfolded and elaborate on the role of heterogeneity and underlying shocks. Both a set of reduced-form approaches and a structural framework suggest a prominent role for demand-side local factors in the short run, along with significant shifts in preferences during crisis episodes. However, valuations become more closely linked to macro-financial factors over the long term. A one-standard deviation tightening in financial conditions is associated with a drop of about 3% in CRE prices in the following quarter, with a stronger impact on the retail sector and milder effects in states where household indebtedness is lower.
Keywords:
Non-residential Real Estate; Financial Conditions; Liquidity; Big Data; level data; CRE price; household indebtedness; CRE market; CRE transaction; COVID-19; Real estate prices; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Global; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Initial Output Losses from the Covid-19 Pandemic: Robust Determinants
Davide Furceri
and
Mr. Jonathan David Ostry
While the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting all countries, output losses vary considerably across countries. We provide a first analysis of robust determinants of observed initial output losses using model-averaging techniques—Weighted Average Least Squares and Bayesian Model Averaging. The results suggest that countries that experienced larger output losses are those with lower GDP per capita, more stringent containment measures, higher deaths per capita, higher tourism dependence, more liberalized financial markets, higher pre-crisis growth, lower fiscal stimulus, higher ethnic and religious fractionalization and more democratic regimes. With respect to the first factor, lower resilience of poorer countries reflects the higher economic costs of containment measures and deaths in such countries and less effective fiscal and monetary policy stimulus.
Keywords:
Recession; Resilience; WALS; BMA; Model-Averaging.; WP; output performance; output loss; credit market regulation; containment measure; product market regulation
Cover IMF Working Papers
What Matters for Financial Development and Stability?
Raja Almarzoqi
,
Samy Ben Naceur
, and
Akshay Kotak
This study aims to identify policies that influence the development of financial institutions as measured across three dimensions: depth, efficiency, and stability. Applying the concept of the financial possibility frontier, developed by Beck & Feyen (2013) and formalized by Barajas et al (2013a), we determine key policy variables affecting the gap between actual levels of development and benchmarks predicted by structural variables. Our dynamic panel estimation shows that inflation, trade openness, institutional quality, and banking crises significantly affect financial development. Our analysis also helps identify potential complementarities and trade-offs for policy makers, based on the effect of the policy variables across the different dimensions of financial development.
Keywords:
WP; d GMM; s GMM; banking sector; standard deviation; real GDP; financial development; financial stability; financial possibility frontier; difference GMM estimator; system GMM estimator; system GMM estimation; Estimation techniques; Financial sector development; Banking crises; Commercial banks; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Is Labor Market Mismatch a Big Deal in Japan?
Mr. Ippei Shibata
Despite its low unemployment rate, the recent shift in the Japanese Beveridge curve indicates increased labor mismatch. This paper quantifies the age, employment-type (full or part-time), and occupational mismatch in the Japanese labor market following Sahin and others (2013). Between April 2000 and April 2013, the age mismatch has steadily declined while the occupational and employmenttype mismatch has shown a countercyclical pattern, showing a sharp increase during the global financial crisis. Occupational mismatch accounted for approximtely 20-40 percent of the recent rise in the unemployment rate in Japan. The magnitude was comparable to that of the U.K. and the U.S.
Keywords:
WP; job mobility; mismatch; vacancies; unemployment; Japanese labor market; vacancy-unemployment ratio; vacancy share; mismatch unemployment; employment-type mismatch; unemployment rate in Japan; Unemployment rate; Labor markets; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Aging; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Finland: Staff Report for the 2012 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund
The paper is an account of Finland’s unexpected upcoming deceleration in the economy at the end of 2011 and later. The deleveraging of the financial sector and the debt crisis made the nation fear an inevitable recession. To sustain this vulnerable situation, due attention was given to short-term growth and long-term challenges. Banks were encouraged to build up capitals and toughen bank decrees. Plans were made to multiply labor power and productivity. At the end of the paper, the Board welcomed the commitment of the state in improving and safeguarding the financial sector.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; deficit; current account statistics; staff appraisal; Finland; revision; consumer confidence; fiscal policy; FIN-FSA in cooperation; Fiscal stance; Aging; Loans; Europe; Global; Baltics; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Burundi: Second Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria: Staff Report; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Burundi
International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses key findings of the Second Review for Burundi under the three-year arrangement under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF). All quantitative and structural performance criteria for March 2009 were met, and structural reforms are on track. In the near term, the authorities are determined to focus on sustaining macroeconomic stability, increasing domestic resource mobilization, promoting pro-poor growth, and implementing the power-sharing agreement to consolidate the peace process. Their commitment to the PRGF-supported program is unwavering and their end-March 2009 program performance has been impressive.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; PRGF arrangement; growth facility; PRGF; IMF Completes Second Review; request; request for modification of performance criteria; Second Review under the Three-Year Arrangment; Burundian authorities; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Irrational Exuberance in the U.S. Housing Market: Were Evangelicals Left Behind?
Mr. Christopher W. Crowe
The recent housing bust has reignited interest in psychological theories of speculative excess (Shiller, 2007). I investigate this issue by identifying a segment of the U.S. population-evangelical protestants-that may be less prone to speculative motives, and uncover a significant negative relationship between their population share and house price volatility. Evangelicals' focus on Biblical prophecy could account for this difference, since it may enable them to interpret otherwise negative events as containing positive news, dampening the response of house prices to shocks. I provide evidence for this channel using a popular internet measure of "prophetic activity" and a 9/11 event study. I also analyze survey data covering religious beliefs and asset holding, and find that 'end times' beliefs are associated with a one-third decline in net worth, consistent with these beliefs providing a form of psychic insurance (Scheve and Stasavage, 2006a and 2006b) that reduces asset demand.
Keywords:
WP; standard deviation; house prices; economics of Religion; asset price cycles; share of evangelical; dependent variable; growth series; price appreciation; population share; price volatility; evangelical area; Housing prices; Housing; Asset bubbles; Insurance; Middle East; Global
Cover IMF Survey
IMF Survey, Volume 34, Issue 19
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
The Web edition of the IMF Survey is updated several times a week, and contains a wealth of articles about topical policy and economic issues in the news. Access the latest IMF research, read interviews, and listen to podcasts given by top IMF economists on important issues in the global economy. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/home.aspx
Keywords:
SV; on-track PSI; IMF financial support; SDR interest rate; IMF's executive board; IMF HIPC assistance; Pensions; Pension spending; Retirement; Oil prices; Aging; Global; Europe; Middle East and Central Asia; Southern Africa; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Southeast Asia; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Papers
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 50, No. 2
Mr. Robert P Flood
This paper examines sources of economic growth in East Asia. The conventional growth-accounting approach to estimating the sources of economic growth requires unrealistically strong assumptions about either competitiveness of factor markets or the form of the underlying aggregate production function. The paper outlines a new approach utilizing nonparametric derivative estimation techniques that does not require imposing these restrictive assumptions. The results for East Asian countries show that output elasticities of capital and labor tend to be different from the income shares of these factors. The paper also explores the compensating potential of private intergenerational transfers.
Keywords:
SP; financing constraint; incumbent government; ruling elite; market distortion; government benevolence; investment function; Aging; Stocks; Current account deficits; Total factor productivity; North America; East Asia; Africa; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa