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Social Science > Demography

You are looking at 1 - 3 of 3 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: General x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
The Effects of COVID-19 Vaccines on Economic Activity
Mr. Pragyan Deb
,
Davide Furceri
,
Daniel Jimenez
,
Siddharth Kothari
,
Mr. Jonathan David Ostry
, and
Nour Tawk
This paper empirically examines the economic effects of COVID-19 vaccine rollouts using a cross-country daily database of vaccinations and high frequency indicators of economic activity—nitrogen dioxide (NO2) emissions, carbon monoxide (CO) emissions, and Google mobility indices—for a sample of 46 countries over the period December 16, 2020 to June 20, 2021. Using surprises in vaccines administered, we find that an unexpected increase in vaccination per capita is associated with a significant increase in economic activity. We also find evidence for non-linear effects of vaccines, with the marginal economic benefits being larger when vaccination rates are higher. Country-specific conditions play an important role, with lower economic gains if strict containment measures are in place or if the country is experiencing a severe outbreak. Finally, the results provide evidence of spillovers across borders, highlighting the importance of equitable access to vaccines across nations.
Keywords:
COVID-19; pandemics; vaccinations; containment measures.; vaccine rollout; vaccination rate; copyright Page; vaccine surprise; containment measure; COVID-19; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Determinants of COVID-19 Vaccine Rollouts and Their Effects on Health Outcomes
Mr. Pragyan Deb
,
Davide Furceri
,
Daniel Jimenez
,
Siddharth Kothari
,
Mr. Jonathan David Ostry
, and
Nour Tawk
This paper examines empirically the determinants of COVID-19 vaccine rollouts and their effects on health outcomes. We assemble a comprehensive and novel cross-country database at a daily frequency on vaccinations and various health outcomes (new COVID-19 cases, fatalities, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions) for the period December 16, 2020-June 20, 2021. Using this data, we find that: (i) early vaccine procurement, domestic production of vaccines, the severity of the pandemic, a country’s health infrastructure, and vaccine acceptance are significant determinants of the speed of vaccination rollouts; (ii) vaccine deployment significantly reduces new COVID-19 infections, Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admissions, and fatalities, and is more effective when coupled with stringent containment measures, or when a country is experiencing a large outbreak; and (iii) COVID-19 cases in neighboring countries can lead to an increase in a country’s domestic caseload, and hamper efforts in taming its own local outbreak.
Keywords:
COVID-19; pandemics; vaccinations; containment measures.; vaccine rollout; vaccine deployment; vaccine acceptance; vaccine procurement; vaccination rollout; Infrastructure; Spillovers; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Reexamining the National Savings-Investment Nexus Across Time and Countries
Mr. Antonio David
,
Carlos Goncalves
, and
Alejandro M. Werner
Domestic savings and investment are positively correlated across countries and through time, as Feldstein-Horioka (FH) unveiled 40 years ago. We argue that an interpretation of this correlation based on market failures is more consistent with data patterns than alternative hypotheses. Moreover, resorting to instrumental variables techniques, we conclude that the relationship is causal: an exogenous rise in savings increases investment. This result holds in the full sample of countries and for emerging and developing economies, but there is evidence that the positive association in advanced economies is due to endogeneity bias. The core of our identification strategy relies on the idea that population age structure influences savings, but not total investment directly. Specifically, we use the share of adults in the [35-49] years of age bracket as an instrument for savings. Our estimates pass weak-instruments robust inference.
Keywords:
WP; saving; investment; investment rate; savings-investment correlation; Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle; Investment; Savings; Causality; savings rate; labor-saving technology; saving variable; Domestic savings; Capital account; Estimation techniques; Income; Global; population share affect investment