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Social Science > Demography

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 35 items for :

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Benin: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper presents stylized facts on Benin’s ongoing economic transformation, and analyzes the country’s new eco-system. A recent IMF paper explores conditions under which the country’s industrial policy could meet its intended goals while avoiding unintended economic distortions down the road. While economic diversification is found to be associated with higher economic growth, evidence on the causal impact of industrial policies is hard to establish. While empirical evidence suggests that Benin’s reliance on traditional sectors, notably the Port of Cotonou, is moderating, economic diversification remains limited. The government embarked on industrial policy with the transformation of local commodities as main engine, including via the launching of a Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in 2020. It is recommending that the authorities should pursue efforts to ensure transparency in the selection of SEZ-related incentives. Intra-regional trade integration holds significant potential for Benin and could support economic diversification. Ongoing post-electoral policy shifts in Nigeria and formalization underway of economic ties between both nations, if permanent, would curb rent-seeking in Benin.
Keywords:
demographics dividend; B. addressing Internet accessibility; infrastructure investment; Beninese government; completion rate; Digitalization; Exports; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; West Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bulgaria: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on the Bulgarian pension system. The paper provides an overview of the pension system and describes measures taken in the last decade to increase its financial sustainability. It highlights how the measures taken during and after the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic structurally affect the financial sustainability of the pension system. The paper also shows that the recent measures compound the long-term pressure related to an aging population. It also details policies that could contain the projected increase in pension spending. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bulgarian authorities increased pensions substantially to support pensioners’ living standards and aggregate demand. These increases have become permanent and improved the adequacy of pensions. However, not matched by revenue measures, they have widened the deficit of the pension system. Reforms that increase the incentives to contribute to the pension system and thus revenue would improve the financial sustainability of the pension system and reduce fiscal risks.
Keywords:
GVC Integration; IMF staff calculation; return on assets; GVC participation; EU country; current ratio; Pension spending; Pensions; Aging; Exports; Public enterprises; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Somalia: Technical Assistance Report-National Accounts Statistics Mission
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This Technical Assistance report on Somalia highlights National Accounts Statistics Mission. The mission’s purpose was to provide technical assistance to the Somalia National Bureau of Statistics (SNBS) in conducting a comprehensive gross domestic product (GDP) revision to incorporate latest source data and methods and to update the base year from 2017 to 2022. The mission assisted the SNBS to produce updated annual GDP time series up to 2022. New data sources were incorporated and the base year for constant prices updated from 2017 to 2022. There is a continuing need to improve source data. While the GDP compilation system makes good use of the limited available data, the foundation for the national accounts remains weak. SNBS will conduct a Business Census in respect of 2023, with implementation gearing up at the end of 2023. It also plans to conduct the first Population Census since 1985, which will also support improvements, especially if designed to provide measures of the informal sector. To support progress toward objectives, the mission recommended a detailed action plan with the priority recommendations carrying particular weight to make headway in improving the completeness of Somalia’s national accounts statistics.
Keywords:
GDP; GDP by expenditure; GDP at constant prices; rebased; comprehensive revisions; household consumption.; compilation system; SNBS website; GDP data; population census result; IMF surveillance; IMF's statistics department; agriculture census; Somalia GDP estimate; Imports; Household consumption; Consumption
Cover Finance & Development
Finance and Development, June 2023
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
In this issue, we focus on the forces disrupting the established international trade order, such as Russia’s war on Ukraine and geopolitical fragmentation. We also look at how global trade is being reshaped by technology and policy priorities, such as climate change and equality.
Keywords:
commonwealth member; trade openness; policy choice; trade volume; commonwealth nation; Aging; Exports; Export restrictions; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Brazil: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
recession response; COVID lockdown stringency; title page; baseline vaccination projection; vaccination path; CA adjustment; Economic recession; COVID-19; Private savings; Exports; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
E-commerce as a Potential New Engine for Growth in Asia
Mr. Tidiane Kinda
The use of e-commerce around the world has accelerated in recent years, with Asia, led by China, spearheading the rise. Using cross-country enterprise survey data, this paper shows that firms engaged in e-commerce have higher productivity and generate a larger share of their revenues from exports than other firms. This is particularly true in Asia, where firms have 30 percent higher productivity and generate about 50 percent more of their revenues from exports. The results presented in this paper are robust to the use of instrumental variables, which highlight possible larger effects of e-commerce on Asian productivity and exports when essential elements are in place for its effective use, such as reliable electricity, telecommunication, and transport infrastructure. Despite the rapid growth of e-commerce in recent years, gaps persist in digital infrastructure and legislation, preventing many Asian countries from fully reaping the potential benefits of e-commerce.
Keywords:
WP; e-commerce firm; World Bank enterprises survey; firm performance; way firm; affiliate company; e-commerce; productivity; exports; World Bank enterprises Surveys; TFP of firm; Total factor productivity; Human capital; Asia and Pacific; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Mauritius: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper develops a Financial Conditions Index (FCI) for Mauritius—an instrument to gauge the operational state of the financial sector and predict real economy activity. The evolution of Mauritius’ financial services sector has been supported by a vibrant offshore corporate sector. Given the strong macro-financial linkages, it is imperative to closely monitor domestic financial developments. Financial developments are broader than monetary developments depicting money supply and interest rates. The FCI is a robust predictor of real GDP growth in Mauritius. The FCI can also help inform macroprudential policy decisions. Decisions on setting the countercyclical capital buffer of Basel III could be informed by analyzing developments in the FCI. As historically Mauritius has not experienced drastic swings in financial credit, testing the constructed FCIs for predicting boom-bust episodes is difficult. Nevertheless, the FCI signaled lax financial conditions in 2009 and again in 2012 that likely contributed to accelerated credit growth in 2012–2013 and a subsequent acceleration in nonperforming loans during 2014–2016.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Mauritius; GDP; saving; saving rate; private saving; statistics Mauritius; export basket; constructed FCIs; Private savings; Income; Aging; Exports; Financial conditions index; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Transport Infrastructure, City Productivity Growth and Sectoral Reallocation: Evidence from China
Yang Yang
This paper examines the impact of highway expansion on aggregate productivity growth and sectoral reallocation between cities in China. To do so, I construct a unique dataset of bilateral transportation costs between Chinese cities, digitized highway network maps, and firm-level census. I first derive and estimate a market access measure that summarizes all direct and indirect impact of trade costs on city productivity. I then construct an instrumental variable to examine the causal impact of highways on economic outcomes and the underlying channels. The results suggest that highways promoted aggregate productivity growth by facilitating firm entry, exit and reallocation. I also find evidence that the national highway system led to a sectoral reallocation between cities in China.
Keywords:
WP; market access; dependent variable; transportation cost; Transport infrastructure; trade; highway; productivity; China; firm TFP; logistics company; census data; production efficiency; Transportation; Total factor productivity; Infrastructure; Global; City productivity growth; evidence from China; sectoral reallocation; C. firm Productivity; Manufacturing
Cover External Sector Report, July 2018
External Sector Report, July 2018
Tackling Global Imbalances amid Rising Trade Tensions
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

The External Sector Report presents a methodologically consistent assessment of the exchange rates, current accounts, reserves, capital flows, and external balance sheets of the world’s largest economies. The 2018 edition includes an analytical assessment of how trade costs and related policy barriers drive excess global imbalances.

Keywords:
ESR; deficit; surplus; policy; deficit side; external; REER gap; assessed current account gap; trade cost; policy recommendation; Current account; Real effective exchange rates; External balance assessment (EBA); Current account balance; Global; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Indonesia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper focuses on various challenges and opportunities related to reaping Indonesia’s demographic dividend. Demographic trends can impact growth through various channels. These include the size of the labor force, productivity, and capital formation. Indonesia’s growth is set to have a sizeable tailwind from demographic trends. The paper suggests that Indonesia should seize the window of opportunity to reap the demographic dividend, as aging is projected to start kicking in less than 15 years. In the long-term, Indonesia can grow old before becoming rich. The rapid speed of aging implies that Indonesia, similar to many Asian economies, may face the prospect of becoming old before becoming rich. Given Indonesia’s favorable demographic trends, policies should focus first on maximizing the demographic dividend. Reaping the demographic dividend requires appropriate policies to raise productivity and create enough quality jobs for the growing working-age population. Investing in human capital early on, including education and health care, is essential to improve the productivity of the workforce and increase the size of the demographic dividend.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Indonesia; IMF staff estimate; VAT; workforce; export; VAT threshold; financial market; workforce training; old-age dependency ratio; population share; equity-enhancing priority expenditure; export destination; growth strategy; Exports; Capital markets; Infrastructure; Aging; Financial inclusion; Global; Asia and Pacific; Africa