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Social Science > Demography

You are looking at 1 - 4 of 4 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Navigating Minefields and Headwinds: National Security, Demographic Shifts, Climate Change and Fiscal Policy in Lithuania
Serhan Cevik
Lithuania’s immediate fiscal challenges are national security and higher costs of borrowing, but fiscal prospects are further exacerbated by long-term pressures stemming from climate change and a shrinking and aging population. The country has experienced a rapidly decreasing population—from 3.7 million in 1991 to 2.8 million in 2023—and its old-age dependency ratio is consequently expected to increase from 33 percent in 2023 to 53.4 percent by 2050. The resulting long-term spending pressures are projected to amount to as much as 11.2 percent of GDP, which is about 30 percent of the current level of spending. Debt sustainability concerns would not allow financing additional spending with more debt. Hence, a comprehensive strategy will help address these long-term fiscal challenges, including tax policy changes to raise additional revenue while primarily reducing expenditure needs through pension and healthcare reforms.
Keywords:
Military spending; interest rates; climate change; demographics; pension; healthcare; tax policy; fiscal sustainability; Lithuania; debt sustainability concern; dependency ratio; headwinds national security; spending pressure; old-age dependency ratio; Aging; Pension spending; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
COVID-19 Impact and Mitigation Policies: A Didactic Epidemiological-Macroeconomic Model Approach
John P. Ansah
,
Mr. Natan P. Epstein
, and
Valeriu Nalban
We develop an integrated epidemiological-macroeconomic model to analyze the interplay between the COVID-19 outbreak and economic activity, as a tool for capacity building purposes. We illustrate a workhorse framework that combines a rich epidemiological model with an economic block to shed light on the tradeoffs between saving lives and preserving economic outcomes under various mitigation policies and scenarios calibrated for emerging market and developing economies. In our benchmark setup, we link the effective contact frequency and labor supply decisions to the current state of the disease progression, allowing for relevant behavioral responses that introduce multiple feedback channels. We showcase the effects of various “smart” mitigation measures, e.g. improved quarantine capacity or targeted labor market restrictions, to alleviate the tradeoffs between health-related outcomes and economic activity, including in response to a second infection wave. The discovery of treatment or vaccine, and the possibility of temporary immunity for the recovered individuals are also considered. The model is further extended to a multisector framework to analyze the sectoral allocation effects of the COVID-19 shock.
Keywords:
Pandemic; Epidemiological model; Macroeconomics; Emerging market and developing economies; Mitigation policy; WP; infection risk; lockdown measure; infection rate; government-mandated lockdown; infection prevalence; viral load; infection curve; infection intensity; wave scenario; infection wave; virus transmission rate; latency period; COVID-19; Labor markets; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
COVID-19 and Emerging Markets: An Epidemiological Model with International Production Networks and Capital Flows
Cem Cakmakli
,
Selva Demiralp
,
Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan
,
Sevcan Yesiltas
, and
Muhammed A. Yildirim
We quantify the macroeconomic effects of COVID-19 for a small open economy by calibrating a SIR-multi-sector-macro model. We measure sectoral supply shocks utilizing teleworking and physical job proximity, and demand shocks with credit card purchases. Both shocks are also affected from changing infection rates under different lockdown scenarios. Being an open economy amplifies the economic costs through two main channels. First, the demand shock has domestic and external components. Second, the initial shock is magnified due to domestic and international input-output linkages.
Keywords:
WP; stimulus package; open economy; inflation rate; COVID-19; Debt Monetisation; External Finance; SIR; Input-Output Tables; Emerging Markets; economic cost; monetary policy; foreign currency; debt monetization; supply and demand; total output; utility function; swap line; Demand elasticity; Global; closed economy; Unconventional monetary policies
Cover IMF Working Papers
Pension Reform in Belgium
International Monetary Fund
This paper reviews the financial implications of aging for the pension system in Belgium during 1995-2050. Our simulations indicate a strong rise in pension expenditure over the next half century, as is the case in other industrialized countries. In Belgium, the problem is particularly acute in the pension system for civil servants. The impact of amending indexation of pension benefits and their ceilings, of harmonizing pension schemes for public and private sector employees, and of increasing the mandatory retirement age is discussed. We also calculate rates of return on the participation in the Belgian pension system and present some evidence on the intergenerational impact of the different reform options.
Keywords:
WP; wage-earners pension scheme; wage bill; wage history; labor cost; wage-earners' scheme; wage growth; pensionable earnings; rate of return; wage-earners' pension scheme; pensions of wage-earner; Pension spending; Pensions; Public sector; Aging; Civil service