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Social Science > Demography

You are looking at 1 - 5 of 5 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Central Banks and Their Policies x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Navigating the Well-Being Effects of Monetary Policy: Evidence from the Euro Area
Mehdi El Herradi
and
Aurélien Leroy
Central banks have recently adjusted their communication strategies to enhance engagement with the general public, yet there is limited understanding of public sentiment regarding monetary policy announcements. This paper investigates whether monetary policy announcements influence household (subjective) well-being in Germany over the period 2002-2018 and finds that tightening surprises reduce life satisfaction. Notably, the impact of a one standard deviation monetary policy shock on well-being is equivalent to a 4% decline in household income. This effect is particularly pronounced among middle-aged individuals and those belonging to the middle-class.
Keywords:
Monetary policy; Subjective Well-Being; Survey data; Euro Area; monetary policy announcement; standard deviation monetary policy shock; well-being effect; IMF working paper 23/248; monetary policy surprise; Income; Aging; Asset prices; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
COVID-19 Vaccines: A Shot in Arm for the Economy
Mr. Niels-Jakob H Hansen
and
Rui Mano
We quantify the effect of vaccinations on economic activity in the United States using weekly county level data covering the period end-2020 to mid-2021. Causal effects are identified through instrumenting vaccination rates with county-level pharmacy density interacted with state-level vaccine allocations, and by including county and state-time fixed effects to control for unobserved factors. We find that vaccinations are a significant and substantial shot in the arm of the economy. Specifically, an increase of initiated vaccination rates of 1 percentage point increases weekly consumer spending by 0.6 percent and reduces weekly initial unemployment claims by 0.004 percentage points of the 2019 labor force. Vaccinations also increase workrelated mobility. Importantly, we find that the effects vary with county characteristics. Specifically, urban counties and counties with initially worse socioeconomic conditions and lower education levels exhibit larger effects of vaccinations. This way, vaccinations are also a fair shot in the arm for the economy, which highlights that equitable distribution of vaccines is important to reduce inequality. Our results are specific to the United States, but hold important lessons for the expected economic impact of vaccinations in other countries.
Keywords:
COVID-19; pandemics; vaccinations.; initiated vaccination rate; IMF working papers; vaccine allocation; effect of vaccination; vaccination rate; Unemployment; Labor force; Unemployment benefits
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Effect of Containment Measures on the COVID-19 Pandemic
Mr. Pragyan Deb
,
Davide Furceri
,
Mr. Jonathan David Ostry
, and
Nour Tawk
Countries have implemented several containment measures to halt the spread of the 2019 coronavirus disease, but it remains unclear the extent to which these unprecedented measures have been successful. We examine this question using daily data on the number of coronavirus disease cases as well as on real-time containment measures implemented by countries. Results suggest that these measures have been very effective in flattening the “pandemic curve”, but there is significant heterogeneity across countries. Effectiveness is enhanced when measures are implemented quickly, where de facto mobility is curtailed, in countries with lower temperatures and population density, as well as in countries with a larger share of the elderly in total population and stronger health systems. We also find that easing of containment measures has resulted in an increase in the number of cases, but the effect has been lower (in absolute value) than that from a tightening of measures.
Keywords:
WP; containment measure; containment stringency index; Covid-19; pandemics; containment measures; stringency index; country characteristic; types containment; containment policy; time trend; Aging; Global; health sector
Cover IMF Working Papers
Shock from Graying: Is the Demographic Shift Weakening Monetary Policy Effectiveness
Patrick A. Imam
Abstract Empirical evidence is mounting that, in advanced economies, changes in monetary policy have a more benign impact on the economy—given better anchored inflation expectations and inflation being less responsive to variation in unemployment—compared to the past. We examine another aspect that could explain this empirical finding, namely the demographic shift to an older society. The paper first clarifies potential transmission channels that could explain why monetary policy effectiveness may moderate in graying societies. It then uses Bayesian estimation techniques for the U.S., Canada, Japan, U.K., and Germany to confirm a weakening of monetary policy effectiveness over time with regards to unemployment and inflation. After proving the existence of a panel co-integration relationship between ageing and a weakening of monetary policy, the study uses dynamic panel OLS techniques to attribute this weakening of monetary policy effectiveness to demographic changes. The paper concludes with policy implications.
Keywords:
WP; interest rate; central bank; financial crisis; monetary policy effectiveness; Demographic shift; monetary transmission mechanism; life-cycle model; monetary policy shock; monetary policy change; effectiveness of monetary policy; inflation expectation; Inflation; Aging; Unemployment; Credit; Global
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, December 1967
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
This paper discusses the project financed by the World Bank for controlling the flow of the Chao Phya River in Thailand. Chao Phya is the lifestream of the Thai people. However, this river, and its principal tributaries are, in their natural state, capricious rivers. In the early 1950s, the World Bank began assisting the Thai government in a series of projects designed to break this ancient tyranny of the rivers’ violent changes. The paper describes how the river is being tamed for irrigation and navigation, and how they are providing electric power and other benefits.
Keywords:
FD; F&D; balance of payments; planning agency; department; country; central bank cooperation; budget office; training center; export receipt; Multiple currency practices; Exports; Quasi-fiscal operations; Reserve assets; Western Europe; Europe; West Africa; Southeast Asia; Africa; Asia and Pacific