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Social Science > Demography

You are looking at 1 - 5 of 5 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Business Fluctuations; Cycles x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Commercial Real Estate in Crisis: Evidence from Transaction-Level Data
Mr. Adrian Alter
,
Elizabeth M. Mahoney
, and
Cristian Badarinza
During the past two decades, the commercial real estate (CRE) market has been impacted by major disruptions, including the global financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic. Using granular data from the U.S., we document how these crises have unfolded and elaborate on the role of heterogeneity and underlying shocks. Both a set of reduced-form approaches and a structural framework suggest a prominent role for demand-side local factors in the short run, along with significant shifts in preferences during crisis episodes. However, valuations become more closely linked to macro-financial factors over the long term. A one-standard deviation tightening in financial conditions is associated with a drop of about 3% in CRE prices in the following quarter, with a stronger impact on the retail sector and milder effects in states where household indebtedness is lower.
Keywords:
Non-residential Real Estate; Financial Conditions; Liquidity; Big Data; level data; CRE price; household indebtedness; CRE market; CRE transaction; COVID-19; Real estate prices; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Global; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Did the COVID-19 Recession Increase the Demand for Digital Occupations in the United States? Evidence from Employment and Vacancies Data
Jiaming Soh
,
Myrto Oikonomou
,
Carlo Pizzinelli
,
Mr. Ippei Shibata
, and
Ms. Marina Mendes Tavares
This paper investigates whether the COVID-19 recession led to an increase in demand for digital occupations in the United States. Using O*NET to capture the digital content of occupations, we find that regions that were hit harder by the COVID-19 recession experienced a larger increase in the share of digital occupations in both employment and newly-posted vacancies. This result is driven, however, by the smaller decline in demand for digital workers relative to non-digital ones, and not by an absolute increase in the demand for digital workers. While our evidence supports the view that digital workers, particularly those in urban areas and cognitive occupations, were more insulated during this recession, there is little indication of a persistent shift in the demand for digital occupations.
Keywords:
IMF working paper research Department; occupations in the United States; vacancies data; cognitive occupation; digital occupation; Employment; COVID-19; Economic recession; Labor markets
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Brazil: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
recession response; COVID lockdown stringency; title page; baseline vaccination projection; vaccination path; CA adjustment; Economic recession; COVID-19; Private savings; Exports; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Mauritius: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper develops a Financial Conditions Index (FCI) for Mauritius—an instrument to gauge the operational state of the financial sector and predict real economy activity. The evolution of Mauritius’ financial services sector has been supported by a vibrant offshore corporate sector. Given the strong macro-financial linkages, it is imperative to closely monitor domestic financial developments. Financial developments are broader than monetary developments depicting money supply and interest rates. The FCI is a robust predictor of real GDP growth in Mauritius. The FCI can also help inform macroprudential policy decisions. Decisions on setting the countercyclical capital buffer of Basel III could be informed by analyzing developments in the FCI. As historically Mauritius has not experienced drastic swings in financial credit, testing the constructed FCIs for predicting boom-bust episodes is difficult. Nevertheless, the FCI signaled lax financial conditions in 2009 and again in 2012 that likely contributed to accelerated credit growth in 2012–2013 and a subsequent acceleration in nonperforming loans during 2014–2016.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Mauritius; GDP; saving; saving rate; private saving; statistics Mauritius; export basket; constructed FCIs; Private savings; Income; Aging; Exports; Financial conditions index; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Recent U.S. Labor Force Dynamics: Reversible or not?
Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan
,
Mai Dao
,
Mr. Juan Sole
, and
Jeremy Zook
The U.S. labor force participation rate (LFPR) fell dramatically following the Great Recession and has yet to start recovering. A key question is how much of the post-2007 decline is reversible, something which is central to the policy debate. The key finding of this paper is that while around ¼–? of the post-2007 decline is reversible, the LFPR will continue to decline given population aging. This paper’s measure of the “employment gap” also suggests that labor market slack remains and will only decline gradually, pointing to a still important role for stimulative macro-economic policies to help reach full employment. In addition, given the continued downward pressure on the LFPR, labor supply measures will be an essential component of the strategy to boost potential growth. Finally, stimulative macroeconomic and labor supply policies should also help reduce the scope for further hysteresis effects to develop (e.g., loss of skills, discouragement).
Keywords:
WP; labor market; labor force; age group; regression analysis; labor force participation; unemployment; employment gap; macro-economic policy; LFPR decline; LFPR dynamics; aggregate LFPR picture; trend LFPR; participation rate shift; LFPR change; Aging; Labor markets; Global