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International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This Technical Assistance report on Somalia highlights National Accounts Statistics Mission. The mission’s purpose was to provide technical assistance to the Somalia National Bureau of Statistics (SNBS) in conducting a comprehensive gross domestic product (GDP) revision to incorporate latest source data and methods and to update the base year from 2017 to 2022. The mission assisted the SNBS to produce updated annual GDP time series up to 2022. New data sources were incorporated and the base year for constant prices updated from 2017 to 2022. There is a continuing need to improve source data. While the GDP compilation system makes good use of the limited available data, the foundation for the national accounts remains weak. SNBS will conduct a Business Census in respect of 2023, with implementation gearing up at the end of 2023. It also plans to conduct the first Population Census since 1985, which will also support improvements, especially if designed to provide measures of the informal sector. To support progress toward objectives, the mission recommended a detailed action plan with the priority recommendations carrying particular weight to make headway in improving the completeness of Somalia’s national accounts statistics.
Robert C. M. Beyer
,
Yingyao Hu
, and
Jiaxiong Yao
This paper presents a novel framework to estimate the elasticity between nighttime lights and quarterly economic activity. The relationship is identified by accounting for varying degrees of measurement errors in nighttime light data across countries. The estimated elasticity is 1.55 for emerging markets and developing economies, ranging from 1.36 to 1.81 across country groups and robust to different model specifications. The paper uses a light-adjusted measure of quarterly economic activity to show that higher levels of development, statistical capacity, and voice and accountability are associated with more precise national accounts data. The elasticity allows quantification of subnational economic impacts. During the COVID-19 pandemic, regions with higher levels of development and population density experienced larger declines in economic activity.
Mr. Francesco Grigoli
and
José M. Mota
The large economic costs of full-blown lockdowns in response to COVID-19 outbreaks, coupled with heterogeneous mortality rates across age groups, led to question non-discriminatory containment measures. In this paper we provide an assessment of the targeted approach to containment. We propose a SIR-macro model that allows for heterogeneous agents in terms of mortality rates and contact rates, and in which the government optimally bans people from working. We find that under a targeted policy, the optimal containment reaches a larger portion of the population than under a blanket policy and is held in place for longer. Compared to a blanket policy, a targeted approach results in a smaller death count. Yet, it is not a panacea: the recession is larger under such approach as the containment policy applies to a larger fraction of people, remains in place for longer, and herd immunity is achieved later. Moreover, we find that increased interactions between low- and high-risk individuals effectively reduce the benefits of a targeted approach to containment.
Mr. Francesco Caselli
,
Mr. Francesco Grigoli
,
Mr. Damiano Sandri
, and
Mr. Antonio Spilimbergo
Lockdowns and voluntary social distancing led to significant reduction in people’s mobility. Yet, there is scant evidence on the heterogeneous effects across segments of the population. Using unique mobility indicators based on anonymized and aggregate data provided by Vodafone for Italy, Portugal, and Spain, we find that lockdowns had a larger impact on the mobility of women and younger cohorts. Younger people also experienced a sharper drop in mobility in response to rising COVID-19 infections. Our findings, which are consistent across estimation methods and robust to a variety of tests, warn about a possible widening of gender and inter-generational inequality and provide important inputs for the formulation of targeted policies.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Malta’s economy is growing strongly. Real GDP growth has been one of the highest in the euro area since the beginning of the crisis, supported by vibrant domestic demand, large infrastructure projects, and a stable banking sector. Unemployment is at historical lows, and labor participation is increasing. The current account remains in surplus, and the external position is broadly in line with fundamentals. Growth is expected to remain solid in 2016–17, driven initially by domestic demand and later by a gradual recovery of external demand. Inflation is projected to pick up gradually owing to the positive output gap and higher imported inflation on account of the weaker exchange rate.
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

La labor que dedica el FMI a las normas sobre divulgación de datos abarca dos niveles: el Sistema General de Divulgación de Datos (SGDD), que se aplica a todos los países miembros del FMI, y las Normas Especiales para la Divulgación de Datos (NEDD), para los países que tienen o buscan acceso a los mercados internacionales de capital. El marco del SGDD ofrece a los gobiernos una guía sobre el desarrollo general de los datos macroeconómicos, financieros y sociodemográficos fundamentales para el análisis y la formulación de políticas en un contexto que, cada vez más, requiere datos estadísticos relevantes, exhaustivos y exactos. Esta Guía explica la naturaleza, objetivos y funcionamiento del SGDD; qué tipos de datos comprende y cómo participan los países. Brinda a las autoridades estadísticas nacionales una herramienta de gestión y un marco para promover una metodología estadística sólida, la compilación de datos con criterios profesionales y la divulgación de datos. Esta Guía reemplaza a la versión actualizada en marzo de 2002 e incorpora los Objetivos de Desarrollo del Milenio, de las Naciones Unidas, como elementos específicos del componente sociodemográfico del SGDD, desarrollado en colaboración con el Banco Mundial.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

The IMF's work on data dissemination standards consists of two tiers: the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS), which applies to all IMF member countries, and the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS), for those members having or seeking access to international capital markets. The GDDS framework provide governments with guidance on the overall development of the macroeconomic, financial, and sociodemographic data that are essential for policymaking and analysis in an environment that increasingly requires relevant, comprehensive, and accurate statistical data. This Guide explains the nature, objectives, and operation of the GDDS; the data dimensions it covers; and how countries participate. It provides national statistical authorities with a management tool and a framework to foster sound statistical methodology, professional data compilation, and data dissemination. The Guide supersedes the version updated in March 2002 and incorporates the UN Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) as specific elements of the GDDS sociodemographic component, which was articulated with the collaboration of the World Bank.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

Les travaux du FMI sur les normes de diffusion des données se font à deux niveaux : le système général de diffusion des données (SGDD), pour tous les pays membres, et la norme spéciale de diffusion des données (NSDD), pour les pays membres qui ont accès, ou cherchent à avoir accès, aux marchés de capitaux internationaux. Le SGDD fournit aux pays des recommandations sur l'établissement des données macroéconomiques, financières et sociodémographiques qui sont essentielles pour l'élaboration de la politique économique et l'analyse dans un environnement où des statistiques pertinentes, détaillées et exactes sont de plus en plus nécessaires. Ce guide explique la nature, les objectifs et le fonctionnement du SGDD, les dimensions des données et les modalités de participation. Il offre aux offices nationaux de statistiques un outil de gestion et une structure qui favorisent la mise en place d'une solide méthodologie statistique, un établissement professionnel des données et la diffusion des données. Le guide remplace la version mise à jour en mars 2002 et intègre les objectifs du millénaire pour le développement (OMD), adoptés dans le cadre des Nations unies, comme éléments spécifiques du volet sociodémographique du SGDD, qui a été élaboré en collaboration avec la Banque mondiale.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

The IMF's work on data dissemination standards consists of two tiers: the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS), which applies to all IMF member countries, and the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS), for those members having or seeking access to international capital markets. The GDDS framework provide governments with guidance on the overall development of the macroeconomic, financial, and sociodemographic data that are essential for policymaking and analysis in an environment that increasingly requires relevant, comprehensive, and accurate statistical data. This Guide explains the nature, objectives, and operation of the GDDS; the data dimensions it covers; and how countries participate. It provides national statistical authorities with a management tool and a framework to foster sound statistical methodology, professional data compilation, and data dissemination. The Guide supersedes the version updated in March 2002 and incorporates the UN Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) as specific elements of the GDDS sociodemographic component, which was articulated with the collaboration of the World Bank.

International Monetary Fund
The German economy has made major strides, helped by wide-ranging reforms. Greater transparency and stronger incentives for prudent action will support crisis prevention and management. The immediate priorities are preserving the integrity of the financial system and maintaining economic confidence. Policy on banking sector restructuring should be mindful of, and consistent with, the forces of international financial integration. Stepping up productivity is the key to sustaining growth. Further efforts are needed to bolster and reinforce commendable gains in fiscal outcomes.