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Social Science > Demography

You are looking at 1 - 5 of 5 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Institutions and the Macroeconomy x
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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
South Africa: Post-Financing Assessment-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents South Africa’s Post-Financing Assessment report. The new government of national unity that took office in June faces significant challenges, including declining real per capita growth, high unemployment, poverty, and inequality, and a rising level of public debt. The new administration has committed to address these challenges by continuing ongoing structural reforms aimed at addressing supply constraints and bolstering inclusive growth, while maintaining fiscal discipline. Monetary policy should carefully manage the descent of inflation to the mid-point of the target range and stay data dependent. The report recommends that policies should focus on bolstering inclusive growth and restoring fiscal sustainability, while managing the descent of inflation to target and safeguarding financial stability. Monetary policy should stay data dependent and rate cuts be considered only after inflation declines sustainably toward the midpoint of the target range. The authorities should continue to monitor financial sector risks, including those related to the bank-sovereign nexus, and enhance supervision and prudential regulations.
Keywords:
U.S. dollar; inflation decline; government operation; per-capita GDP figure; Policy discussion; IMF's transparency policy; IMF team; Fiscal stance; Africa; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Initial Output Losses from the Covid-19 Pandemic: Robust Determinants
Davide Furceri
and
Mr. Jonathan David Ostry
While the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting all countries, output losses vary considerably across countries. We provide a first analysis of robust determinants of observed initial output losses using model-averaging techniques—Weighted Average Least Squares and Bayesian Model Averaging. The results suggest that countries that experienced larger output losses are those with lower GDP per capita, more stringent containment measures, higher deaths per capita, higher tourism dependence, more liberalized financial markets, higher pre-crisis growth, lower fiscal stimulus, higher ethnic and religious fractionalization and more democratic regimes. With respect to the first factor, lower resilience of poorer countries reflects the higher economic costs of containment measures and deaths in such countries and less effective fiscal and monetary policy stimulus.
Keywords:
Recession; Resilience; WALS; BMA; Model-Averaging.; WP; output performance; output loss; credit market regulation; containment measure; product market regulation
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Nordic Labor Market and Migration
Giang Ho
and
Ms. Kazuko Shirono
The large influx of migrants to Nordic countries in recent years is challenging the adoptability of Nordic labor market institutions while also adding to potential growth. This paper examines the trends, economic drivers, and labor market implications of migration to Nordic countries with a particular focus on economic migration as distinct from the recent large flows of asylum seekers. Our analysis finds that migration inflows to the Nordics are influenced by both cyclical and structural factors. Although migration helpfully dampens overheating pressures during periods of strong demand, and over the longer term will cushion the decline in labor supply from population aging, in the near-term unemployment can rise, especially among the young and lower-skilled. The analysis highlights the need to adapt Nordic labor market institutions in a manner that better facilitates the integration of migrants into employment. In particular, greater wage flexibility at the firm level and continued strong active labor market measures will help improve labor market outcomes among immigrants.
Keywords:
WP; migration flow; EU migration; migration inflow; net migration rate; Nordic countries; migration; labor market; unemployment; Nordic model; Denmark; Finland; Norway; Sweden; labor market outcome; labor market duality; migration rate; EU labor market; wage differential; labor market development; labor market experience; host country labor market; migration literature; Labor markets; Unemployment rate; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kingdom of Lesotho: Staff Report for the 2005 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund
The Kingdom of Lesotho’s 2005 Article IV Consultation reports that the government’s fiscal position and the external current account have improved markedly. The authorities are preparing an action plan, in collaboration with development partners, to improve the business climate. Critical measures aim to increase labor productivity through training, reduce domestic costs for the private sector by addressing infrastructure bottlenecks, remove regulatory and administrative impediments, improve access to financial services, and promote product and export market diversification.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; consumer price inflation; exchange rate depreciation; signing of the Millennium Challenge Corporation; staff's assessment; Kingdom of Lesotho authorities; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Euro Area Policies
International Monetary Fund
The continuing weakness of activity in the euro area reflects an amalgam of cyclical and long-term forces that are likely to shape the outlook and to challenge policies. Financial conditions in the area have improved along with those in global markets, though financial fragilities may be impairing the transmission to firms. The aging of the population could entail significant declines in potential output growth and lower expected lifetime income resources. Forward-looking policies are needed to improve the quality and ensure long-term sustainability.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; euro; Longer-run inflation expectation; ECB's inflation objective; core inflation; headline inflation; equity price; inflation objective; ECB's target; Inflation; Labor markets; Structural reforms; Aging; Global; Europe