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Social Science > Demography

You are looking at 1 - 7 of 7 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Flattening the Curve and the Flight of the Rich: Pandemic-Induced Shifts in US and European Housing Markets
Nina Biljanovska
and
Giovanni Dell'Ariccia
The pattern of increasing suburban house prices relative to urban centers initiated during the pandemic continues to hold across the top 30 US metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). In contrast, European countries such as Denmark, France, and the United Kingdom did not experience a similar shift in valuations. We posit and find supporting evidence that these divergent patterns partially due to differences in the characteristics of suburban areas, particularly in terms of household income and property sizes; with European suburbs being relatively poorer and characterized by smaller housing units. We show that, in the US, MSAs with suburban features more akin to those in European cities generally experienced little to no increase in suburban housing prices compared to their urban centers. Finally, our findings indicate that migration patterns of the high-income population might have partially influenced the urban-suburban revaluation in the US.
Keywords:
Property prices; House price gradient; City structure; High-income population mobility; population mobility; price gradient; housing unit; income gap; Housing prices; Income; Real estate prices; Inflation; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
What are the Economic Effects of Pandemic Containment Policies? Evidence from Sweden
Mrs. Jana Bricco
,
Florian Misch
, and
Alexandra Solovyeva
This paper examines the economic effects of policies to contain Covid-19, by extracting lessons from Sweden’s experience during the ‘Great Lockdown’. Sweden’s approach was less stringent and based more on social responsibility than legal obligations compared to European peers. First, we provide an account of Sweden’s strategy and the health outcomes. Second, drawing on a range of data sources and empirical findings, our analysis of the first Covid-19 wave indicates that a less stringent strategy can soften the economic impact initially. These benefits could be eroded subsequently, due to potentially higher infection rates and a prolonged pandemic, but in Sweden’s case, the evidence remains mixed in this regard, and it is premature to judge the outcome of Sweden’s containment strategy. In addition, the economic effects of the containment strategy also depend on social behavior, demographics and structural features of the economy, such as the degree of export orientation, reliance on global supply chains, and malleability to remote working.
Keywords:
WP; Sweden; containment; containment measure; IMF staff calculation; containment strategy
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Nordic Labor Market and Migration
Giang Ho
and
Ms. Kazuko Shirono
The large influx of migrants to Nordic countries in recent years is challenging the adoptability of Nordic labor market institutions while also adding to potential growth. This paper examines the trends, economic drivers, and labor market implications of migration to Nordic countries with a particular focus on economic migration as distinct from the recent large flows of asylum seekers. Our analysis finds that migration inflows to the Nordics are influenced by both cyclical and structural factors. Although migration helpfully dampens overheating pressures during periods of strong demand, and over the longer term will cushion the decline in labor supply from population aging, in the near-term unemployment can rise, especially among the young and lower-skilled. The analysis highlights the need to adapt Nordic labor market institutions in a manner that better facilitates the integration of migrants into employment. In particular, greater wage flexibility at the firm level and continued strong active labor market measures will help improve labor market outcomes among immigrants.
Keywords:
WP; migration flow; EU migration; migration inflow; net migration rate; Nordic countries; migration; labor market; unemployment; Nordic model; Denmark; Finland; Norway; Sweden; labor market outcome; labor market duality; migration rate; EU labor market; wage differential; labor market development; labor market experience; host country labor market; migration literature; Labor markets; Unemployment rate; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Denmark: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper for Denmark shows that a demographic shift will have several impacts on the economy. The decline in the relative size of the labor force will result in relatively fewer goods produced. This effect will be particularly strong, because a large portion of the current baby-boomers are in their peak earning years, and their retirement will have a dramatic effect on productivity and on overall production. Demark has imposed a restrictive policy requiring that immigrants prove they have a job that meets wage and working condition standards before getting a work permit.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; price inflation; labor force; labor market; GDP deflator; vanishing Phillips curve trade-off; capital stock; wage inflation; Aging; Migration; Inflation; Unemployment; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Finland: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
The Selected Issues paper on Finland underlies public finances and structural reform. The structural reforms encompassing labor and product markets as well the pension system would substantially improve the outlook for fiscal sustainability. Reductions in labor and product market inefficiencies is estimated, on the basis of a staff computable general equilibrium model, to raise output and employment significantly while reducing the price level. Additional pension reforms could further increase employment, boost economic growth, and improve public finances, as could improved expenditure efficiency, thereby creating room for further reductions in labor income taxation.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; wage; government; markup; product market; product market reform; product market rigidity; simultaneous product market; retirement age; labor market inefficiency; unemployment rate; Labor markets; Commodity markets; Employment; Aging; Labor market reforms; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Sweden: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
The Selected Issues paper analyzes tax policy trends at the local level in Sweden and assesses the effectiveness of the vertical fiscal policy coordination system. The study reviews Sweden’s local public finances from an international perspective and empirically explores various explanations for the gradual increase in local tax rates. It discusses long-term challenges for local public finances and aggregate fiscal policy coordination. The design of vertical fiscal policy coordination in other countries is described. The paper also examines the Swedish experience of work absence in a European context.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; sickness absence; absence rate; insurance system; replacement rate; cash benefit; Länder government; tax burden; income tax; Aging; Europe; Western Europe; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Regional Trade Agreements Versus Broad Liberalization: Which Path Leads to Faster Growth? Time-Series Evidence
Mr. Athanasios Vamvakidis
Should a closed economy open its trade to all countries or limit itself to participation in regional trade agreements (RTAs)? Based on time-series evidence for a data set for 1950-92, this paper estimates and compares the growth performance of countries that liberalized broadly and those that joined an RTA. The comparisons show that economies grew faster after broad liberalization, both in the short and long run, but slower after participation in an RTA. Economies also had higher investment shares after broad liberalization, but lower ones after joining an RTA. The policy implications support broad liberalization.
Keywords:
WP; trade share; RTA dummy; Years before; open economy; Economic Growth of Open Economies; RTAs lead; investment share; liberalization case; Trade policy; Trade liberalization; Population growth; Trade barriers; Logit models; Global