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Social Science > Demography

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 27 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Production; Cost; Capital and Total Factor Productivity; Capacity x
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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Poland: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
2024 Selected Issues
Keywords:
D. pension inequity; convergence success; firm investment trend; B. pension projection; E. pension funds' role; pension benefit; Pension spending; Pensions; Productivity; Aging; Total factor productivity; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Philippines: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper focuses on potential growth and demographic dividend in Philippines. Output and employment in the Philippines were severely impacted by the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. While the Philippines recovered strongly after the pandemic, there is some evidence of scarring in output, and labor productivity remains below pre-pandemic trends. A comparison between the Philippines and peer countries along structural areas key to supporting higher growth can inform reform efforts to support higher growth. Strengthening anti-corruption efforts, while enhancing the legal system, regulatory quality, and improving the rule of law would support business certainty. At a structural level, the Philippines is on the cusp of a demographic transition but must close important structural gaps to take advantage of this potential dividend and boost growth. Under current policy settings, potential growth projections are estimated to be between 6.0–6.3 percent in the medium term. An upside scenario, which assumes ambitious and well-sequenced structural reforms, shows that growth could reach 7.0–7.5 percent over a longer time horizon.
Keywords:
supply and demand inflation decomposition; supply and demand food inflation decomposition; inflation volatility; inflation expectation; services inflation decomposition; supply and demand goods inflation decomposition; Inflation; Total factor productivity; Human capital; Labor productivity; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Slovak Republic: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on drivers and impacts of inflation in Slovakia. High and volatile inflation in Slovakia in recent years seems to be mainly driven by volatile food prices amplified by the larger consumer price index weight of food items. Other drivers include the large impact of imported inflation, elevated profit margins of domestic firms, and higher wage growth. High inflation could erode external competitiveness through higher unit labor costs, but there is no clear evidence of this so far. Domestically, high inflation has had uneven impacts across households and firms. Firms with the largest cost increases experienced a deterioration in their financial situation, and certain categories of households, including those with low-income levels and the elderly, are particularly vulnerable to the rising cost of living. The recent fall in inflation is projected to continue, but strong unit labor cost growth or an increase in profit margins could keep inflation elevated and undermine competitiveness.
Keywords:
price change; unit labor cost; inflation in Slovakia; B. income convergence; D. policy implication; Inflation; Productivity; Total factor productivity; Aging; Europe; Central and Eastern Europe; Baltics
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Macroeconomic Effects of Large Immigration Waves
Philipp Engler
,
Ms. Margaux MacDonald
,
Mr. Roberto Piazza
, and
Galen Sher
We propose a novel approach to measure the dynamic macroeconomic effects of immigration on the destination country, combining the analysis of episodes of large immigration waves with instrumental variables techniques. We distinguish the impact of immigration shocks in OECD countries from that of refugee immigration in emerging and developing economies. In OECD, large immigration waves raise domestic output and productivity in both the short and the medium term, pointing to significant dynamic gains for the host economy. We find no evidence of negative effects on aggregate employment of the native-born population. In contrast, our analysis of large refugee flows into emerging and developing countries does not find clear evidence of macroeconomic effects on the host country, a conclusion in line with a growing body of evidence that refugee immigrants are at disadvantage compared to other type of immigrants.
Keywords:
Immigration; productivity; dynamic gains; immigration wave; immigration shock; immigration episode; OECD migration flow data; migration shock; Migration; Employment; Total factor productivity; Estimation techniques; Middle East
Cover IMF Working Papers
Unveiling the Hidden Impact of Urban Land Rents on Total Factor Productivity
Mr. Bas B. Bakker
This paper addresses the puzzling decline of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) levels in rapidly growing economies, such as Singapore, despite advancements in technology and high GDP per capita growth. The paper proposes that TFP growth is not negative; instead, standard growth decompositions have underestimated TFP growth by overestimating the contribution of capital, failing to account for the substantial part of capital income directed to urban land rents. This leads to an overestimation of changes in capital stock's contribution to growth and thereby an underestimation of TFP growth. A revised decomposition suggests that TFP growth in economies with high land rents and rapid capital stock growth, such as Singapore, has been considerably underestimated: TFP levels have not declined but increased rapidly.
Keywords:
Total Factor Productivity; Economic Growth; Capital Stock; Land Rents; Growth Decomposition; Urban Economics; Population Density; Diminishing Returns to Scale; Technological Progress; Singapore; TFP level; re-estimating TFP; land rent; decline of total factor productivity; Capital income; Stocks; Land prices; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
China's Declining Business Dynamism
Cian Ruane
After impressive growth in the 2000s, China's productivity has more recently stagnated. We use firm-level data to analyze productivity and firm dynamism trends from 2003 to 2018. We document six facts that together show a decline in China’s business dynamism. We show that (i) the revenue share of young firms has declined, (ii) the life-cycle growth of young firms relative to older incumbents has slowed, (iii) weaker life-cycle growth can be explained by slower productivity growth and weaker investment in intangibles, (iv) younger and smaller firms are more capital constrained than their older and larger counterparts, (v) the responsiveness of capital growth to the marginal product of capital has declined, and (vi) large productivity gaps between SOEs and private firms persist. We find that business dynamism is weaker in provinces where SOEs account for a larger share of the capital stock. Our results suggest that declining private business dynamism is an important factor in explaining China's sluggish TFP growth and that SOE reform could boost productivity growth indirectly by stimulating business dynamism.
Keywords:
China; total factor productivity; growth; business dynamism.; business dynamism; life-cycle growth; SOE reform; China's productivity; dynamism trend; Productivity; Public enterprises; Total factor productivity; Capital productivity; Aging
Cover Departmental Papers
Demographic Headwinds in Central and Eastern Europe
Cristina Batog
,
Ernesto Crivelli
,
Ms. Anna Ilyina
,
Zoltan Jakab
,
Mr. Jaewoo Lee
,
Anvar Musayev
,
Iva Petrova
,
Mr. Alasdair Scott
,
Ms. Anna Shabunina
,
Andreas Tudyka
,
Xin Cindy Xu
, and
Ruifeng Zhang
The populations of Central and Eastern European (CESEE) countries—with the exception of Turkey—are expected to decrease significantly over the next 30 years, driven by low or negative net birth rates and outward migration. These changes will have significant implications for growth, living standards and fiscal sustainability.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; CESEE country; labor market; public spending; current account; workforce aging; labor force; retirement age; IMF staff calculation; CESEE economy; CESEE workforce; baseline labor force scenario; EU country; per capita income; CESEE population; physical capital; workforce cohort; Aging; Labor force; Total factor productivity; Western Europe; Europe; Eastern Europe; Baltics; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
E-commerce as a Potential New Engine for Growth in Asia
Mr. Tidiane Kinda
The use of e-commerce around the world has accelerated in recent years, with Asia, led by China, spearheading the rise. Using cross-country enterprise survey data, this paper shows that firms engaged in e-commerce have higher productivity and generate a larger share of their revenues from exports than other firms. This is particularly true in Asia, where firms have 30 percent higher productivity and generate about 50 percent more of their revenues from exports. The results presented in this paper are robust to the use of instrumental variables, which highlight possible larger effects of e-commerce on Asian productivity and exports when essential elements are in place for its effective use, such as reliable electricity, telecommunication, and transport infrastructure. Despite the rapid growth of e-commerce in recent years, gaps persist in digital infrastructure and legislation, preventing many Asian countries from fully reaping the potential benefits of e-commerce.
Keywords:
WP; e-commerce firm; World Bank enterprises survey; firm performance; way firm; affiliate company; e-commerce; productivity; exports; World Bank enterprises Surveys; TFP of firm; Total factor productivity; Human capital; Asia and Pacific; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Transport Infrastructure, City Productivity Growth and Sectoral Reallocation: Evidence from China
Yang Yang
This paper examines the impact of highway expansion on aggregate productivity growth and sectoral reallocation between cities in China. To do so, I construct a unique dataset of bilateral transportation costs between Chinese cities, digitized highway network maps, and firm-level census. I first derive and estimate a market access measure that summarizes all direct and indirect impact of trade costs on city productivity. I then construct an instrumental variable to examine the causal impact of highways on economic outcomes and the underlying channels. The results suggest that highways promoted aggregate productivity growth by facilitating firm entry, exit and reallocation. I also find evidence that the national highway system led to a sectoral reallocation between cities in China.
Keywords:
WP; market access; dependent variable; transportation cost; Transport infrastructure; trade; highway; productivity; China; firm TFP; logistics company; census data; production efficiency; Transportation; Total factor productivity; Infrastructure; Global; City productivity growth; evidence from China; sectoral reallocation; C. firm Productivity; Manufacturing
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Poland: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper highlights the fact that to address the challenge of declining working age population, policies should not only aim to support fertility, but also to increase labor force participation rate, to improve labor allocation across sectors and to encourage net immigration. However, with some recent measures going in the opposite direction, even such mitigating policies may not fully offset the demographic headwinds. Poland faces profound demographic changes. The decline of fertility rate and growing life expectancy, mostly driven by longevity of older cohorts, will significantly change the demographic landscape. Demographics may soon pose a barrier for growth. The historical expansion of working age population appears to have been only partly utilized to boost potential growth, with increased unemployment and declined labor force participation rates dampening potential gains. Net migration was also a drag on the labor supply in the past, but this has changed recently. In addition to a steady outflow of permanent migrants, there was a sharp pickup in temporary migration after EU accession.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Poland; TFP growth; firm; investment; growth slowdown; OECD average; retirement age; output gap estimate; reform scenario; Total factor productivity; Labor force participation; Aging; Infrastructure; Private investment; Global; Europe; Eastern Europe