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Social Science > Demography

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Cover Regional Economic Outlook, October 2021, Sub-Saharan Africa
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2021, Sub-Saharan Africa
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

The world remains in the grip of the COVID-19 pandemic and a seemingly accelerating pace of climate change, both of which underscore the need for increased global cooperation and dialogue. Solutions to these global problems must involve all countries and all regions, especially sub-Saharan Africa, with the world’s least vaccinated population, most promising renewable energy potential, and critical ecosystems. Sub-Saharan Africa’s economy is set to expand by 3.7 percent in 2021 and 3.8 percent in 2022. This follows the sharp contraction in 2020 and is much welcome, but still represents the slowest recovery relative to other regions. In particular, the economic outlook points to divergences at three levels: between sub-Saharan Africa and other regions, within sub-Saharan Africa, and within countries. These divergences reflect the region’s slower vaccines rollout, more limited fiscal space, and regional disparities in resilience. The outlook remains extremely uncertain, and risks are tilted to the downside. In particular, the recovery depends on the path of the global pandemic and the regional vaccination effort, food price inflation, and is also vulnerable to disruptions in global activity and financial markets. Looking ahead, sub-Saharan Africa’s potential remains undiminished. The region is at a critical juncture to implement bold transformative reforms to capitalize on this potential.

Keywords:
Sub-Saharan Africa; regional outlook; vaccination; COVID-19; COVAX; monetary policy; public debt; tax revenues; climate change; headline inflation; food price inflation; IMF staff calculation; vaccination rate lag; food inflation; international community; countries in sub-Saharan Africa; WAEMU member country; sub-Saharan Africa remain; distribution infrastructure; food inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa; exports to the EU; IMF export diversification index; Inflation; Climate change; Global; Africa; West Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Digital Connectivity in sub-Saharan Africa: A Comparative Perspective
Mr. Emre Alper
and
Michal Miktus
Higher digital connectivity is expected to bring opportunities to leapfrog development in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Experience within the region demonstrates that if there is an adequate digital infrastructure and a supportive business environment, new forms of business spring up and create jobs for the educated as well as the less educated. The paper first confirms the global digital divide through the unsupervised machine learning clustering K-means algorithm. Next, it derives a composite digital connectivity index, in the spirit of De Muro-Mazziotta-Pareto, for about 190 economies. Descriptive analysis shows that majority of SSA countries lag in digital connectivity, specifically in infrastructure, internet usage, and knowledge. Finally, using fractional logit regressions we document that better business enabling and regulatory environment, financial access, and urbanization are associated with higher digital connectivity.
Keywords:
WP; digital connectivity; EDAI SSA distribution; account ownership; ICT indicators database; SSA countries lag; Digitalization; unsupervised machine learning; fractional logit model; connectivity index; SSA economy; Information technology in revenue administration; Infrastructure; Machine learning; Income; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa
Cover Spillover Notes
Sub-Saharan African Migration: Patterns and Spillovers
Mr. Jesus R Gonzalez-Garcia
,
Mr. Ermal Hitaj
,
Mr. Montfort Mlachila
,
Arina Viseth
, and
Mustafa Yenice
Amid rapid population growth, migration in sub-Saharan Africa has been increasing briskly over the last 20 years. Up to the 1990s, the stock of migrants—citizens of one country living in another country—was dominated by intraregional migration, but over the last 15 years, migration outside the region has picked up sharply. In the coming decades, sub-Saharan African migration will be shaped by an ongoing demographic transition involving an enlargement of the working-age population, and migration outside the region, in particular to advanced economies, is set to continue expanding. This note explores the main drivers of sub-Saharan African migration, focusing on migration outside the region, as this has greater global spillovers. It finds that the economic impact of migration for the region occurs mainly through two channels. First, the migration of young and educated workers—brain drain—takes a toll as human capital is already scarce in the region, although some recent studies suggest that migration may have also a positive effect—brain gain. Second, remittances represent an important source of foreign exchange and income in a number of sub-Saharan African countries, contribute to the alleviation of poverty, and help smooth business cycles.
Keywords:
SN; Sub-Saharan Africa; country; SSA migration; remittance; migration rate; emigration prospect; refugee migration; migration trend; SSA migrant; migration pattern; Migration; Remittances; Population growth; Demographic change; Europe; Africa; Middle East
Cover IMF Working Papers
Africa Rising: Harnessing the Demographic Dividend
Mr. Paulo Drummond
,
Mr. Vimal V Thakoor
, and
Shu Yu
Africa will account for 80 percent of the projected 4 billion increase in the global population by 2100. The accompanying increase in its working age population creates a window of opportunity, which if properly harnessed, can translate into higher growth and yield a demographic dividend. We quantify the potential demographic dividend based on the experience of other regions. The dividend will vary across countries, depending on such factors as the initial working age population as well as the speed and magnitude of demographic transition. It will be critical to ensure that the right supportive policies, including those fostering human capital accumulation and job creation, are in place to translate this opportunity into concrete economic growth.
Keywords:
WP; age population; real GDP; Demographic Dividend; Economic Growth; Sub-Saharan Africa; Panel Estimates; age share; share matter; GDP growth; working age share; estimation result; Aging; Labor force participation; Demographic change; Africa; Asia and Pacific; North America; Northern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Cape Verde: Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy Paper – II
International Monetary Fund
This paper focuses on Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy Paper–II (GPRSP II) for Cape Verde. The GPRSP II is formulated with reference to five major strategic aims concerning good governance, human capital, competitiveness, infrastructure building, and social cohesion. In identifying and pursuing these aims, the country seeks to improve its performance with respect to the established objectives and targets. The central objective of poverty reduction rests primarily upon structural policies linked to the promotion of inclusive economic growth, complemented by redistributive policies that are socially compensatory and focused on groups with high vulnerability.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; private sector; economic policy; vocational training; civil society; human resources; job creation; fiscal policy; economic development; information system; Job training; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Cape Verde: Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper: First Annual Progress Report
International Monetary Fund
This report summarizes the First Annual Progress Report on the Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy (PRGS) program. It assesses the status of the strategy implementation and monitoring mechanism, and emphasizes the need to face enormous development challenges and curb poverty and unemployment. It reviews the agenda of structural reforms and also lists the sectoral achievements toward the five strategic aims. It provides a brief description of the monitoring and evaluation mechanisms for implementation in some sectors.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; process; information system; public finance; government administration; e-government action plans; management system; financial support; Food security; Budget planning and preparation; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Cape Verde: Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper Preparation Status Report
International Monetary Fund
This paper focuses on Cape Verde’s Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (DECRP). The Strategy of Growth and Poverty Reduction is an integral part of a strategic planning process. The institutional framework for the implementation of the DECRP is based on the existing administrative structures, incorporating such functional restructuring operations as are deemed appropriate. The final version of the DECRP will reflect enhanced coordination and a focus on policy consistency for those issues addressed in the preliminary version alongside other matters not dealt with in sufficient detail.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; DECRP; government; policy; poverty profile; DECRP preparation process; reduction poverty; Policy measure; reduction poverty in Equity; equity implications of poverty; Poverty reduction strategy; Poverty reduction