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Social Science > Demography

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Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Costa Rica: Technical Assistance Report-Universal Basic Pension: Objectives and Constraints
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
At the request of the Ministry of Finance, a mission from the International Monetary Fund visited San Jose. The purpose of the mission was to assess the proposal to a universal basic pension and to estimate its fiscal and welfare impact on the budget, on pension schemes, and on old age income poverty. Costa Rica is entering a demographic transition which will see the old age dependency ratios significantly worsen in the coming 20 years. The long-term financial sustainability of the general social security pension scheme (IVM) is a concern, despite various reforms introduced over the past three decades and the scheme’s reserves are expected to be exhausted by the mid-2030s. The government’s proposal intends to address financial sustainability, the adequacy of coverage and of benefit levels, as well as distributional equity through the introduction of a universal basic pension. The IMF team’s assessment is that the proposal is unlikely to fully meet its stated objectives. The proposal will worsen social security pension scheme’s financial sustainability and create additional financing needs. This will translate into an accelerated exhaustion of IVM reserves and, after the reserves are depleted, require significant adjustments to IVM parameters or higher government transfers. Old age income security may be more effectively addressed, with less pronounced fiscal side-effects, through improving coverage and compliance in IVM and expanding the reach of the social pension scheme. The primary instruments of achieving these goals are: (a) amending the rules undermining compliance with registration and wage reporting regulations in the contributory schemes, (b) improving coordination between tax and contribution collection agencies, (c) amending the regulations governing eligibility for noncontributory social pensions and (d) ensuring the noncontributory social pension is adequately financed.
Keywords:
resident representative; IMF executive director; IMF Proposal; Asociación Costarricense; PBU replacement; Pensions; Pension spending; Aging; Income; Central America
Cover IMF Working Papers
An Assessment of the 2019 and 2020 Pension Reforms in Mexico
Boele Bonthuis
In recent years the Mexican pension system has changed significantly. In 2019 the existing means-tested social pension was made universal – covering everyone over the age of 65 – and the benefit level increased. In 2020, the main regime of the private sector was substantially reformed, increasing contribution rates for the funded defined contribution system, lowering the minimum years of contributions needed to receive an earnings-related pension, and increasing minimum pensions. This paper tries to assess the likely outcomes of those reforms, discusses design inefficiencies of the reforms and offers policy options to improve pension system design.
Keywords:
Pension reform; funding; pay-as-you-go; labor supply incentives; design inefficiencies; pension system design; pension calculation; minimum pension; pay-as-you-go pension accrual; design inefficiency; Pension spending; Pensions; Wages; Aging; Retirement; Caribbean; Central America
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Costa Rica: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on the neutral interest rate in Costa Rica. Estimates of Costa Rica’s real natural rate of interest are between 0 and 3 percent, with a suite of semistructural and univariate methods reaffirming this conclusion at close to 1 percent. This toolkit of multiple differing methods accounts for characteristics of the Costa Rican economy and suggests current monetary policy remains restrictive. Univariate estimates for Costa Rica are between those for the United States and largest regional peers. Structural changes to the Costa Rican economy, particularly in recent years, have important implications for the movement in the neutral rate. A suite of univariate methods also reaffirms this conclusion and suggests current monetary policy remains restrictive. Estimates for Costa Rica are between the United States and largest regional peers. Replicating the univariate approach for the United States and other countries in Latin America suggests Costa Rica has a somewhat lower neutral real interest rate than the largest regional peers, Brazil and Mexico, which currently appear to have neutral rates above 2 percent but above the United States.
Keywords:
labor market characteristic; refugees in Costa rica; estimation uncertainty; neutral real interest rate; card payment fee; Real interest rates; Migration; Labor markets; Social assistance spending; Caribbean
Cover Finance & Development
Finance and Development, December 2021
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Finance and Development, December 2021
Keywords:
vaccine hesitancy; vaccination rate; pandemic preparedness; HPV vaccine; pandemic policy; COVID-19; Health care; Communicable diseases; Global; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Central America; North America
Cover Departmental Papers
Growing Pains: Is Latin America Prepared for Population Aging?
Mr. Lorenzo U Figliuoli
,
Valentina Flamini
,
Misael Galdamez
,
Frederic Lambert
,
Mike Li
,
Mr. Bogdan Lissovolik
,
Rosalind Mowatt
,
Jaume Puig
,
Mr. Alexander D Klemm
,
Mauricio Soto
,
Mr. Saji Thomas
,
Christoph Freudenberg
, and
Anna Orthofer
This paper estimates the fiscal costs of population aging in Latin America and provides policy recommendations on reforms needed to make these costs manageable. Although Latin American societies are still younger than most advanced economies, like other emerging markets the region is already in a process of population aging that is expected to accelerate in the remainder of the century. This will directly affect fiscal sustainability by putting pressure on public pension and health care systems in the region that are already more burdened than, for example, in emerging Asia, a region with a similar demographic structure. A stylized cross-country exercise, drawing on demographic projections from the United Nations and methodologies developed by the IMF to derive public spending projections, is used to quantify long-term fiscal gaps generated by population aging in 18 Latin American countries. Several aspects of current pensions and health care systems in Latin Amer-ica make the region’s long-term fiscal positions particularly vulnerable to population aging.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; present discounted value; retirement age; private sector; public spending; replacement rate; minimum wage; rate of return; contribution rate; Pension system; Pension spending; Pensions; Aging; Health care spending; Retirement; Europe; Asia and Pacific; Global; Central America; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover Finance & Development
Finance and Development, March 2017
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
This paper reports about current mainstream growth projections for the United States and the European Union over the medium term represent a marked slowdown from growth rates in the decades prior to the global financial crisis. Slower growth in Europe and the United States has mixed implications for growth prospects in developing economies. Most obviously, on the negative side, it means less demand for these countries’ exports, so models of development based on export-led growth may need to be rethought. In contrast, for Western Europe the narrative is about catch-up growth rather than the rate of cutting-edge technological progress. From the middle of the 20th century to the recent global crisis, this experience comprised three distinct phases. European medium-term growth prospects depend both on how fast productivity grows in the United States and whether catch-up growth can resume after a long hiatus. Economic historians see social capability as a key determinant of success or failure in catch-up growth.
Keywords:
FD; F&D; economy; can money; workforce benefit; productivity growth; utility price; polymer note; pension payment; prices in the shop; Productivity; Non-renewable resources; Income inequality; Aging; Global; Europe; Sub-Saharan Africa; Western Europe; East Asia
Cover Economic Growth and Integration in Central America
Economic Growth and Integration in Central America
Mr. Alfred Schipke
and
Mr. Dominique Desruelle

Abstract

How to entrench hard-won gains, increase resilience to shocks, and improve growth performance to reduce poverty? As Central America moves forward in regaining macroeconomic stability, these are the challenges. This study analyzes Central America’s real, fiscal, monetary, and financial sector policies at the regional level, starting with a review of growth performance and the macroeconomic implications of remittances. It then looks at the sustainability of pension systems, financial system development, sovereign debt vulnerabilities, and ways to sustain progress in reducing inflation by strengthening the credibility of central banks.

Keywords:
OP; country; debt; government; Central America-Panama; debt structure; Central America-Chile; Central America-Dominican Republic; retirement age; productivity-enhancing reform; foreign currency debt; productivity performance; Pension spending; Pensions; Aging; Inflation; Central America; South America; Western Hemisphere; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Military Expenditure: Econometric Testing of Economic and Political Influences
Mr. Daniel P. Hewitt
Econometric results from an analysis of the determinants of military expenditure in 125 countries during 1972-88 are presented. The dependent variable is the ratio of military expenditure to GDP; included among the explanatory variables are economic and financial indicators, political variables summarizing the form of government, and demographic and geographic features of nations. The results strongly confirm the importance of these variables in explaining cross-country differences in levels of military expenditure.
Keywords:
WP; central government; military expenditure; concentration ratio; form of government variable; government consumption expenditure; government finance statistics yearbook; country category; government management; government budget identity; expenditure in proportion to GDP; Gov't consumption ratio; government consumption expenditure in proportion to GDP; consumption expenditure; government management of the economy; Defense spending; Central government spending; Budget planning and preparation; Middle East
Cover International Comparisons of Government Expenditure
International Comparisons of Government Expenditure
Mr. Peter S. Heller
and
Mr. Alan A. Tait

Abstract

Many studies on International tax compaisons have been undertaken since the early 1970s. While controversial, such studies have facilitated more subtle comparisons of a country's tax performance than would be afforded by focusing on its simple tax ratio.

Keywords:
OP; government expenditure; country; vis-à-vis subsidy; IED goods; expenditure category; expenditure indices; comparison index; Capital spending; Personal income; Current spending; Middle East; Africa; North Africa; Europe