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Social Science > Demography

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Cover Departmental Papers
Violent Crime and Insecurity in Latin America and the Caribbean: A Macroeconomic Perspective
Paul M Bisca
,
Vu Chau
,
Paolo Dudine
,
Raphael A Espinoza
,
Jean-Marc Fournier
,
Pierre Guérin
,
Niels-Jakob H Hansen
, and
Jorge Salas
Violent crime and insecurity remain major barriers to prosperity in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). With just 8 percent of the global population, LAC accounts for a third of the world’s homicides. Building on the existing literature, this paper aims to support economic policymakers and development partners by exploring the interplay between insecurity and macroeconomic outcomes, with emphasis on the relationship between violent crime and growth, the business climate, and public finances. The analysis shows that national-level crime indicators mask huge internal disparities, and that municipalities with 10 percent higher homicide rates have lower economic activity by around 4 percent. The paper develops an innovative measure of insecurity—the share of crime-related news—and shows its association with lower industrial production. Using firm-level data, it also estimates that the direct costs of crime, for firms, are around 7 percent of annual sales, and these are much higher when gangs and drug-trafficking organizations are present. Violent crime rises with macroeconomic instability, inequality, and governance problems. Using a large cross-country panel, the analysis finds that homicides increase when a country is affected by negative growth, high inflation, or a worsening of inequality. Victimization surveys indicate that where populations are concerned with the rule of law—impunity and police corruption—only one in five victims file their case with the police. Lack of trust and crime can be mutually reinforcing. Finally, the paper documents the fiscal burden of security provision and finds that spending tends to be inelastic to crime and that spending efficiency could be improved. The paper concludes with policy lessons and areas for additional collaboration between national authorities, international partners, and key stakeholders. These focus on data collection and analysis, economic policies that may address the root causes and manifestations of crime, strengthening rule of law institutions, and intensifying regional exchanges on security and public finance issues.
Keywords:
Crime; organized crime; homicides; homicide dates; costs of crime; macroeconomic stability; growth; drivers of crime; crime impunity; private sector development; violent crime; crime indicator; development in Latin America and the Caribbean; Public order and safety spending; Drug trafficking; Caribbean; Central America; South America; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
Regional Spillovers from the Venezuelan Crisis: Migration Flows and Their Impact on Latin America and the Caribbean
Mr. Jorge A Alvarez
,
Mr. Marco Arena
,
Alain Brousseau
,
Mr. Hamid Faruqee
,
Emilio William Fernandez Corugedo
,
Mr. Jaime Guajardo
,
Gerardo Peraza
, and
Juan Yepez
As a new migration crisis is unfolding in Europe because of the war in Ukraine, the purpose of this paper is to also highlight the ongoing migration crisis in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) due to Venezuela’s economic collapse. The stock of Venezuelan migrants reached 5 million in 2019, most of which had settled in other LAC countries. Following a temporary halt during the pandemic, migration from Venezuela has resumed, with the stock of migrants reaching 6.1 million in 2021. These migration flows are expected to continue in the coming years, which can strain public services and labor markets in the recipient economies in LAC. This Departmental Paper focuses on migration spillovers from the Venezuelan economic and social crisis. It sheds light on how migration can raise GDP growth and affect fiscal and external positions in host countries. It also discusses policy options, including greater support for education and integration into the workforce, which could help migrants find jobs to match their skills and help raise growth prospects in recipient countries.
Keywords:
Migration labor market unemployment spillover effects; Migration flow; migration flow; Venezuela crisis; Migration inflow; Migration spillover; policy action; Venezuelan migrant; Migration; Labor markets; Human capital; Caribbean; Global; South America; Central America
Cover Departmental Papers
Growing Pains: Is Latin America Prepared for Population Aging?
Mr. Lorenzo U Figliuoli
,
Valentina Flamini
,
Misael Galdamez
,
Frederic Lambert
,
Mike Li
,
Mr. Bogdan Lissovolik
,
Rosalind Mowatt
,
Jaume Puig
,
Mr. Alexander D Klemm
,
Mauricio Soto
,
Mr. Saji Thomas
,
Christoph Freudenberg
, and
Anna Orthofer
This paper estimates the fiscal costs of population aging in Latin America and provides policy recommendations on reforms needed to make these costs manageable. Although Latin American societies are still younger than most advanced economies, like other emerging markets the region is already in a process of population aging that is expected to accelerate in the remainder of the century. This will directly affect fiscal sustainability by putting pressure on public pension and health care systems in the region that are already more burdened than, for example, in emerging Asia, a region with a similar demographic structure. A stylized cross-country exercise, drawing on demographic projections from the United Nations and methodologies developed by the IMF to derive public spending projections, is used to quantify long-term fiscal gaps generated by population aging in 18 Latin American countries. Several aspects of current pensions and health care systems in Latin Amer-ica make the region’s long-term fiscal positions particularly vulnerable to population aging.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; present discounted value; retirement age; private sector; public spending; replacement rate; minimum wage; rate of return; contribution rate; Pension system; Pension spending; Pensions; Aging; Health care spending; Retirement; Europe; Asia and Pacific; Global; Central America; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Demographic Changes in Latin America: The Good, the Bad and …
Mr. Santiago Acosta Ormaechea
,
Marco A Espinosa-Vega
, and
Diego Wachs
The paper develops a simple, integrated methodology to project public pension cash flows and healthcare spending over the long term. We illustrate its features by applying it to the LAC5 (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico), where public spending pressures are expected to increase significantly over 2015-50 due to demographic trends and rising healthcare costs. We simulate alternative pension reforms, including the transition from a defined benefit to a defined contribution pension system and the fiscal burden of a minimum guaranteed pension under the latter. We also analyze public healthcare outlays in the LAC5, which is likewise expected to increase significantly over 2015-50 due to aging and the so-called excess cost growth factor of healthcare services, showing that curbing the evolution of the latter (e.g., through enhanced competition in the healthcare sector) could aid in containing spending pressures. Despite its simplicity, the methodology yields projections that compare well with other approaches. It therefore provides a good benchmark for assessing alternative reform scenarios, particularly in data-constrained countries.
Keywords:
WP; inflation rate; defined contribution; DC system; replacement rate; DB system; pension system; public pension spending; public healthcare spending; aging; pension system reforms; contribution rate; cash flow; Pension spending; Pensions; Retirement; Western Hemisphere
Cover IMF Working Papers
Poverty in a Wealthy Economy: The Case of Nigeria
Sudharshan Canagarajah
and
Mr. Saji Thomas
This paper describes the nature and evolution of poverty in Nigeria between 1985 and 1992. It highlights the potential wealth of the Nigerian economy and examines how the economic policies pursued in the 1980s and 1990s impacted economic growth and welfare. The headcount measure of poverty in Nigeria declined from 43 percent to 34 percent between 1985 and 1992. Decomposing the factors causing the reduction in poverty shows that the overall decline of 9 percentage point was the net result of a 14 percentage point decline owing to the growth factor and a 5 percentage point increase owing to the income distribution factor. The paper proposes that promoting broad-based growth and targeted interventions in health, education, and infrastructure need to be central strategies in the fight against poverty in Nigeria.
Keywords:
WP; economic growth; per capita income; terms of trade; poverty incidence; standard of living; Poverty; Income distribution; Targeting; Nigeria; oil wealth; export income; poverty level; poverty line income; FGT poverty measure; profile of Nigeria; gap index; poverty incidence in Nigeria; poverty profile of Nigeria; Poverty reduction; Personal income; Africa; Asia and Pacific; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Fiscal Effects of the 1993 Colombian Pension Reform
Sergio Clavijo
This study examines the fiscal impact of the pension reform adopted in Colombia in 1993, which established a fully funded, privately administered pension system alongside the existing pay-as-you-go state scheme. The reform increased the contribution rate and reduced the benefits of the state scheme. However, the fiscal cost of the reform was high, estimated at 1.5 to 2.3 percent of GDP annually over the next three decades. This reflects concessions made to special groups of public servants, the delay in making effective the new retirement conditions, and the minimum pension guarantee. A new generation of pension reforms needs to be adopted.
Keywords:
WP; GDP; pension liability; ISS scheme; Pension Funds; Social Security; Latin America; oil worker; ISS liability; government sector worker system; liabilities correspond; PAYG Systems; Pension spending; Pensions; Pension reform; Public sector; Aging; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Military Expenditure: Econometric Testing of Economic and Political Influences
Mr. Daniel P. Hewitt
Econometric results from an analysis of the determinants of military expenditure in 125 countries during 1972-88 are presented. The dependent variable is the ratio of military expenditure to GDP; included among the explanatory variables are economic and financial indicators, political variables summarizing the form of government, and demographic and geographic features of nations. The results strongly confirm the importance of these variables in explaining cross-country differences in levels of military expenditure.
Keywords:
WP; central government; military expenditure; concentration ratio; form of government variable; government consumption expenditure; government finance statistics yearbook; country category; government management; government budget identity; expenditure in proportion to GDP; Gov't consumption ratio; government consumption expenditure in proportion to GDP; consumption expenditure; government management of the economy; Defense spending; Central government spending; Budget planning and preparation; Middle East
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, December 1986
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
This paper describes the World Bank’s mission in a changing world. Conditionality of the Bank is different in several ways as it operates over a longer timeframe and relates to the more comfortable issues of economic growth rather than financial stabilization. The longer timeframes of the Bank’s programs require reaching agreement with borrowing countries on the desirability of maintaining the course that’s being advocated for an extended period. Many developing countries are unduly sensitive about the possibility that they may have to exercise their sovereignty more forcefully in the future.
Keywords:
FD; F&D; country; supplier; lending; price; savings rate; technology supplier; adjustment programs retard growth; terms of SDR; medium-staple price; supplier control; Aging; Private savings; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global; Asia and Pacific; Europe
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, December 1973
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
This paper reviews the population policy in developed countries. The paper highlights that despite the weakness of population concerns in most developed countries compared with less-developed countries, most of the former have taken certain actions that affect, or are thought to affect, demographic events. These actions include such measures as appointing official commissions to study the country’s demographic situation and advise the government what to do; providing birth control services as part of the public health system; and so on. This paper also summarizes the conclusions drawn by Dr. Berelson from the 25 country reports.
Keywords:
FD; F&D; birth rate; World bank loan; country; decline assumption; credit from Ida; bank group activity; loan from the bank; Population growth; Exports; Currencies; Western Europe; Africa; Global; Asia and Pacific; North America