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Social Science > Demography

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 123 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • China, People's Republic of x
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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
People’s Republic of China—Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: 2024 Article IV Consultation Discussions-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Hong Kong SAR’s economy is on a path of gradual but uneven recovery following a protracted period of shocks. While the unemployment rate has declined to historical lows, employment loss has been sizable and domestic demand has remained weak amid tight financial conditions and property market downturn, both locally and in Mainland China. The territory’s integration with Mainland China, including in the context of the Greater Bay Area (GBA) initiative, has significantly increased in recent years, but rising regional competition has put pressure on some of its traditional growth engines, prompting the authorities to pursue new sources of growth, including from innovative, technology-driven sectors.
Keywords:
consultation discussion; exchange regime; surveillance topic; rate of HK; surveillance effort; Housing; Housing prices; Climate finance; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
How Widespread is FDI Fragmentation?
Joanne Tan
This paper examines the extent to which FDI has fragmented across countries, the ways it has done so, using a modified gravity approach. The paper finds that FDI fragmentation is, for now, not a widespread phenomenon. Instead, fragmentation is circumscribed in two ways. First, the paper finds that geo-economic fragmentation has occurred only for certain industries that likely have strategic value, including computer manufacturing, information and communications, transport, as well as professional, scientific and technical services. Secondly, fragmentation appears to be more pronounced for outward FDI from the US, notably in a shift of US FDI from China to advanced Europe and the rest of Asia. This shift appears to be driven by both the intensive and extensive margin. Fragmentation is also more pronounced for immediate rather than ultimate FDI, with evidence of ultimate parent companies aligning the geopolitical mix of their intermediaries more closely to that of their final FDI host destinations. Overall, the results suggest that fragmentation, where found, may be a response to targeted policies that have placed curbs on certain types of FDI on national security grounds, rather than an indiscriminate breakup of investment links between non-ally countries.
Keywords:
Fragmentation; Foreign Direct Investment; FDI fragmentation; host destination; FDI from the US; FDI from China; FDI host destination; Exchange rates; Manufacturing; Trade agreements; Europe; Asia and Pacific; Global; Western Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bulgaria: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on the Bulgarian pension system. The paper provides an overview of the pension system and describes measures taken in the last decade to increase its financial sustainability. It highlights how the measures taken during and after the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic structurally affect the financial sustainability of the pension system. The paper also shows that the recent measures compound the long-term pressure related to an aging population. It also details policies that could contain the projected increase in pension spending. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bulgarian authorities increased pensions substantially to support pensioners’ living standards and aggregate demand. These increases have become permanent and improved the adequacy of pensions. However, not matched by revenue measures, they have widened the deficit of the pension system. Reforms that increase the incentives to contribute to the pension system and thus revenue would improve the financial sustainability of the pension system and reduce fiscal risks.
Keywords:
GVC Integration; IMF staff calculation; return on assets; GVC participation; EU country; current ratio; Pension spending; Pensions; Aging; Exports; Public enterprises; Global; Europe
Cover Finance & Development
Finance and Development, June 2023
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
In this issue, we focus on the forces disrupting the established international trade order, such as Russia’s war on Ukraine and geopolitical fragmentation. We also look at how global trade is being reshaped by technology and policy priorities, such as climate change and equality.
Keywords:
commonwealth member; trade openness; policy choice; trade volume; commonwealth nation; Aging; Exports; Export restrictions; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Why Some Don’t Belong—The Distributional Effects of Natural Disasters
Mrs. Nina Budina
,
Lixue Chen
, and
Laura Nowzohour
When and how do natural disasters worsen within-country income inequality? We highlight the channels through which natural disasters may have distributional effects and empirically analyze when and which type of disasters affect inequality in advanced economies (AEs) and in emerging and developing economies (EMDEs). We find that in AEs inequality increases after severe disasters. We also find that inequality increases if severe disasters are associated with growth slowdowns or there are multiple disasters in a year in AEs and in EMDEs. Descriptive evidence for the US also suggests that adverse labor market effects of disasters are likely to fall on vulnerable groups.
Keywords:
labor market effect; distributional effect; inequality effect; effects of disaster; projections estimate; Natural disasters; Income inequality; Income distribution; Labor markets; Sub-Saharan Africa; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Measuring Quarterly Economic Growth from Outer Space
Robert C. M. Beyer
,
Yingyao Hu
, and
Jiaxiong Yao
This paper presents a novel framework to estimate the elasticity between nighttime lights and quarterly economic activity. The relationship is identified by accounting for varying degrees of measurement errors in nighttime light data across countries. The estimated elasticity is 1.55 for emerging markets and developing economies, ranging from 1.36 to 1.81 across country groups and robust to different model specifications. The paper uses a light-adjusted measure of quarterly economic activity to show that higher levels of development, statistical capacity, and voice and accountability are associated with more precise national accounts data. The elasticity allows quantification of subnational economic impacts. During the COVID-19 pandemic, regions with higher levels of development and population density experienced larger declines in economic activity.
Keywords:
Nighttime lights; economic measurement; quarterly GDP; national accounts; COVID-19.; GDP growth; Summary statistics; light growth; growth measure; GDP measure; COVID-19; GDP measurement; Vector autoregression; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
China's Declining Business Dynamism
Cian Ruane
After impressive growth in the 2000s, China's productivity has more recently stagnated. We use firm-level data to analyze productivity and firm dynamism trends from 2003 to 2018. We document six facts that together show a decline in China’s business dynamism. We show that (i) the revenue share of young firms has declined, (ii) the life-cycle growth of young firms relative to older incumbents has slowed, (iii) weaker life-cycle growth can be explained by slower productivity growth and weaker investment in intangibles, (iv) younger and smaller firms are more capital constrained than their older and larger counterparts, (v) the responsiveness of capital growth to the marginal product of capital has declined, and (vi) large productivity gaps between SOEs and private firms persist. We find that business dynamism is weaker in provinces where SOEs account for a larger share of the capital stock. Our results suggest that declining private business dynamism is an important factor in explaining China's sluggish TFP growth and that SOE reform could boost productivity growth indirectly by stimulating business dynamism.
Keywords:
China; total factor productivity; growth; business dynamism.; business dynamism; life-cycle growth; SOE reform; China's productivity; dynamism trend; Productivity; Public enterprises; Total factor productivity; Capital productivity; Aging
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Spending Challenge of Achieving the SDGs in South Asia: Lessons from India
Ms. Mercedes Garcia-Escribano
,
Ms. Tewodaj Mogues
,
Marian Moszoro
, and
Mauricio Soto
South Asia has experienced significant progress in improving human and physical capital over the past few decades. Within the region, India has become a global economic powerhouse with enormous development potential ahead. To foster human and economic development, India has shown a strong commitment to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) Agenda. This paper focuses on the medium-term development challenges that South Asia, and in particular India, faces to ensure substantial progress along the SDGs by 2030. We estimate the additional spending needed in critical areas of human capital (health and education) and physical capital (water and sanitation, electricity, and roads). We document progress on these five sectors for India relative to other South Asian countries and discuss implications for policy and reform.
Keywords:
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs); Human Capital; Infrastructure; India; spending estimation; health outcome; spending challenge; physical capital; SDG sector; Sustainable Development Goals (SDG); Electricity; South Asia
Cover Finance & Development
Finance and Development, December 2021
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Finance and Development, December 2021
Keywords:
vaccine hesitancy; vaccination rate; pandemic preparedness; HPV vaccine; pandemic policy; COVID-19; Health care; Communicable diseases; Global; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Central America; North America
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, October 2021, Asia and Pacific
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2021, Asia and Pacific
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Abstract

Fall 2021 Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific--Navigating Waves of New Variants: Pandemic Resurgence Slows the Recovery

Keywords:
vaccine rollout; GVC trade; vaccine deployment; pandemic cycle; trade openness; COVID-19; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Trade barriers; Asia and Pacific; Global; Pacific Islands; North America