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Social Science > Demography

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 26 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Shifting Perceptions: Unpacking Public Support for Immigrant Workers Integration in the Labor Market
Silvia Albrizio
,
Hippolyte W. Balima
,
Bertrand Gruss
,
Eric Huang
, and
Colombe Ladreit
This paper investigates public perceptions and support for policies aimed at integrating immigrant workers into domestic labor markets. Through large-scale surveys involving 6,300 respondents from Canada, Italy, and the United Kingdom, we provide new insights into attitudes toward migrant integration policies and the impact of different information provisions on belief updating. We identify three key factors that shape policy support: pre-existing stereotypes about immigrants, awareness of labor market integration policies for migrants, and, most critically, the perceived economic and social impact of these policies. Our findings reveal that providing information about the economic effects of integrating immigrants in the labor market significantly alters perceptions and increases support for these policies. Notably, explanations of the economic mechanisms underlying these policies are more effective than simply presenting policy effects or real-life stories of integration challenges. The survey also identifies the primary barriers to policy support, with fairness considerations toward unemployed native workers emerging as the top concern. It reveals that addressing individuals’ specific concerns through tailored mitigation measures can enhance support for policies aimed at better integration migrants. Nevertheless, a significant challenge remains in overcoming mistrust in the government’s commitment and ability to effectively implement these policies and accompanying measures.
Keywords:
Labor market integration policies; Survey; Perceptions; Immigration; Online experiment; Political Economy; integration policy; shape policy support; policy effect; mitigation policy; support variable; integration migrant; Migration; Labor markets; Labor market policy; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Low for (Very) Long? A Long-Run Perspective on r* across Advanced Economies
Josef Platzer
,
Mr. Francesco Grigoli
, and
Robin Tietz
We provide a long-run perspective on neutral interest rates with new estimates for 16 advanced economies since the 1870s using the Laubach and Williams approach. Our estimates differ substantially from commonly used proxies. We find that, while cross-country heterogeneity was significant in the past, since the 1980s the decline has been common to many countries. Traditional determinants such as population aging and productivity growth are strongly correlated with the changes in neutral rates, while others like the relative price of capital and inequality exhibit weak relationships with r*. We also find that neutral rates co-vary negatively with public debt-to-GDP ratios.
Keywords:
neutral rate; old-age dependency ratio; time series; neutral interest rates; coefficient estimate; cited estimation approach; estimation procedure; Real interest rates; Capital account; Aging; Output gap; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Estimating Digital Infrastructure Investment Needs to Achieve Universal Broadband
Edward Oughton
,
Mr. David Amaglobeli
, and
Mr. Mariano Moszoro
We develop a detailed model to evaluate the necessary investment requirements to achieve affordable universal broadband. The results indicate that approximately $418 billion needs to be mobilized to connect all unconnected citizens globally (targeting 40-50 GB/Month per user with 95 percent reliability). The bulk of additional investment is for emerging market economies (73 percent) and low-income developing countries (24 percent). We also find that if the data consumption level is lowered to 10-20 GB/Month per user, the total cost decreases by up to about half, whereas raising data consumption to 80-100 GB/Month per user leads to a cost increase of roughly 90 percent relative to the baseline. Moreover, a 40 percent cost decrease occurs when varying the peak hour quality of service level from the baseline 95 percent reliability, to only 50 percent reliability. To conclude, broadband policy assessments should be explicit about the quantity of data and the reliability of service provided to users. Failure to do so will lead to inaccurate estimates and, ultimately, to poor broadband policy decisions.
Keywords:
Broadband; Digital Infrastructure; Public Investment; Sustainable Development Goals; cost decrease; investment requirement; infrastructure investment; cost sensitivity; data consumption; policy assessment; estimation metrics; cost driver; data traffic; infrastructure cost modeling; Digitalization; Infrastructure; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global; Caribbean; Central Asia and the Caucasus; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Commercial Real Estate in Crisis: Evidence from Transaction-Level Data
Mr. Adrian Alter
,
Elizabeth M. Mahoney
, and
Cristian Badarinza
During the past two decades, the commercial real estate (CRE) market has been impacted by major disruptions, including the global financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic. Using granular data from the U.S., we document how these crises have unfolded and elaborate on the role of heterogeneity and underlying shocks. Both a set of reduced-form approaches and a structural framework suggest a prominent role for demand-side local factors in the short run, along with significant shifts in preferences during crisis episodes. However, valuations become more closely linked to macro-financial factors over the long term. A one-standard deviation tightening in financial conditions is associated with a drop of about 3% in CRE prices in the following quarter, with a stronger impact on the retail sector and milder effects in states where household indebtedness is lower.
Keywords:
Non-residential Real Estate; Financial Conditions; Liquidity; Big Data; level data; CRE price; household indebtedness; CRE market; CRE transaction; COVID-19; Real estate prices; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Global; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Automatic Adjustment Mechanisms in Asian Pension Systems?
Ms. Elif C Arbatli Saxegaard
,
Mr. Csaba Feher
,
Mr. Jack J Ree
,
Ikuo Saito
, and
Mauricio Soto
Automatic adjustment mechanisms (AAMs)—rules ensuring that certain characteristics of a pension system respond to demographic, macroeconomic and financial developments, in a predetermined fashion and without the need for additional intervention—have been introduced in many OECD countries to tackle public pension schemes’ deteriorating financial sustainability. Incorporating AAMs—in particular linking retirement age to life expectancy—can be an important part of pension reforms in Asia. If implemented early, AAMs could help prevent the need for sharp adjustments in the future, increase the predictability and inter-generational equity of pension systems and enhance confidence.
Keywords:
WP; benefit indexation; replacement ratio; applying Introducing AAMs; price indexation; AAM adjustment; pension system; state-of-the-world Introducing AAMs; Pension System Reform; Automatic Adjustment Mechanisms; price inflation; Pension spending; Pensions; Retirement; Aging; Asia and Pacific
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
The Fiscal Consequences of Shrinking Populations
Mr. Benedict J. Clements
,
Mr. Kamil Dybczak
,
Vitor Gaspar
,
Mr. Sanjeev Gupta
, and
Mauricio Soto
This Staff Discussion Note looks at the stark fiscal challenges posed by the decline and aging of populations between now and 2100. It finds that without reforms, pensions and health spending would rise to 25 percent of GDP by end-century in more developed countries (and 16 percent of GDP in less developed countries), with potentially dire fiscal consequences. Given the uncertainty underlying the population projections and associated large fiscal risks, a multi-pronged approach will be required. This could include entitlement reform—starting now but at a gradual pace; policies that affect demographics and labor markets; and better tax systems and more efficient public expenditure.
Keywords:
SDN; dependency ratio; ratio; spending; Aging; Demographics; Public Debt; Pension Spending; Health Spending; Population Growth; health care; old-age dependency ratio; age-related spending; labor market; present discounted value; Health care spending; Migration; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Shock from Graying: Is the Demographic Shift Weakening Monetary Policy Effectiveness
Patrick A. Imam
Abstract Empirical evidence is mounting that, in advanced economies, changes in monetary policy have a more benign impact on the economy—given better anchored inflation expectations and inflation being less responsive to variation in unemployment—compared to the past. We examine another aspect that could explain this empirical finding, namely the demographic shift to an older society. The paper first clarifies potential transmission channels that could explain why monetary policy effectiveness may moderate in graying societies. It then uses Bayesian estimation techniques for the U.S., Canada, Japan, U.K., and Germany to confirm a weakening of monetary policy effectiveness over time with regards to unemployment and inflation. After proving the existence of a panel co-integration relationship between ageing and a weakening of monetary policy, the study uses dynamic panel OLS techniques to attribute this weakening of monetary policy effectiveness to demographic changes. The paper concludes with policy implications.
Keywords:
WP; interest rate; central bank; financial crisis; monetary policy effectiveness; Demographic shift; monetary transmission mechanism; life-cycle model; monetary policy shock; monetary policy change; effectiveness of monetary policy; inflation expectation; Inflation; Aging; Unemployment; Credit; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Productivity or Employment: Is It a Choice?
Ms. Andrea De Michelis
,
Mr. Marcello M. Estevão
, and
Ms. Beth Anne Wilson
Traditionally, shocks to total factor productivity (TFP) are considered exogenous and the employment response depends on their effect on aggregate demand. We raise the possibility that in response to labor supply shocks firms adjust efficiency, rendering TFP endogenous to firms’ production decisions. We present robust cross-country evidence of a strong negative correlation between growth in TFP and labor inputs over the medium to long run. In addition, when using instruments to capture changes in hours worked that are independent of TFP shocks, we find that cross-country increases in labor input cause reductions in TFP growth. These results have important policy implications, including that low productivity growth in some countries may partly be a side effect of strong labor market performance. By the same token, countries facing a declining workforce, say, because of aging, may see accelerating TFP as firms find better ways of employing workers.
Keywords:
WP; TFP growth; hours growth; hour; total factor productivity; employment performance; technology choices; TFP measure; TFP growth to exogenous movement; labor input growth; growth of TFP; increase immigration; Labor productivity; Productivity; Population growth; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Education Attainment in Public Administration Around the World: Evidence from a New Dataset
Mr. Rabah Arezki
,
Mr. Herbert Lui
,
Mr. Marc G Quintyn
, and
Mr. Frederik G Toscani
The paper provides a detailed description of a novel dataset on education attainment in public administrations covering the period 1981-2011 for 178 countries. The dataset uses information extracted from CVs for over 130,000 mid to senior level officials from mainly central banks and ministries of economy and finance. Our main finding is that there is little heterogeneity across regions when considering a non quality-adjusted measure of education attainment in public administrations. Adjusting our measure for quality, using a country wide academic ranking, reveals important cross-regional heterogeneity differing from that of standard measures of education attainment for the general population. The dataset also allows us to uncover important patterns in public administrations' education attainment along gender and seniority across regions. We further use the dataset to explore a few applications which provide some evidence of (i) the importance of salary incentives in attracting highly educated staff and (ii) a positive association between education attainment in public administrations and government effectiveness (e.g. higher tax revenue mobilization, limiting corruption, better public finance management and private market support).
Keywords:
WP; education attainment; authority; administration; Public Administration; State Capacity; government effectiveness; training activity; government discipline; Fiscal governance; Civil service; Public sector; Central and Eastern Europe; Central Asia; East Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Israel: Selected Issues Paper
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues Paper states that Israel’s growth performance is impressive, with real GDP growing at a faster pace than many other OECD countries. The secular Jewish population enjoys a high level of living standards, whereas most Arab and Haredi people are poor, with poverty incidence reaching 60 percent for both groups. Low employment in Arab and Haredi communities is mainly accounted for by the low employment rate of Arab women and Haredi men.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; bank; central bank; inflation targeting; inflation; employment rate; graduation rate; OECD average; defense investment; Haredim men; bank publication; monetary policy; Employment rate; Financial sector stability; Global