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Social Science > Demography

You are looking at 1 - 4 of 4 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Forecasting and Other Model Applications x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Forecasting Social Unrest: A Machine Learning Approach
Chris Redl
and
Sandile Hlatshwayo
We produce a social unrest risk index for 125 countries covering a period of 1996 to 2020. The risk of social unrest is based on the probability of unrest in the following year derived from a machine learning model drawing on over 340 indicators covering a wide range of macro-financial, socioeconomic, development and political variables. The prediction model correctly forecasts unrest in the following year approximately two-thirds of the time. Shapley values indicate that the key drivers of the predictions include high levels of unrest, food price inflation and mobile phone penetration, which accord with previous findings in the literature.
Keywords:
Social unrest; machine learning.; machine learning model; risk index; prediction model; machine learning approach; IMF working; Machine learning; Inflation; Food prices; Global; unrest event
Cover IMF Working Papers
Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts: The Case of IMF Growth Projections
Klaus-Peter Hellwig
I regress real GDP growth rates on the IMF’s growth forecasts and find that IMF forecasts behave similarly to those generated by overfitted models, placing too much weight on observable predictors and underestimating the forces of mean reversion. I identify several such variables that explain forecasts well but are not predictors of actual growth. I show that, at long horizons, IMF forecasts are little better than a forecasting rule that uses no information other than the historical global sample average growth rate (i.e., a constant). Given the large noise component in forecasts, particularly at longer horizons, the paper calls into question the usefulness of judgment-based medium and long-run forecasts for policy analysis, including for debt sustainability assessments, and points to statistical methods to improve forecast accuracy by taking into account the risk of overfitting.
Keywords:
WP; growth projection; WEO forecast; LASSO coefficient; bootstrapped sample; shrinkage coefficient; Forecasting; GDP growth; machine learning; Personal income; Real exchange rates; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Population growth; Global; inflation dynamics; IMF growth projection; Euro area inflation dynamics; copyright page; area inflation dynamics; Income
Cover IMF Working Papers
Pension Reform in Belgium
International Monetary Fund
This paper reviews the financial implications of aging for the pension system in Belgium during 1995-2050. Our simulations indicate a strong rise in pension expenditure over the next half century, as is the case in other industrialized countries. In Belgium, the problem is particularly acute in the pension system for civil servants. The impact of amending indexation of pension benefits and their ceilings, of harmonizing pension schemes for public and private sector employees, and of increasing the mandatory retirement age is discussed. We also calculate rates of return on the participation in the Belgian pension system and present some evidence on the intergenerational impact of the different reform options.
Keywords:
WP; wage-earners pension scheme; wage bill; wage history; labor cost; wage-earners' scheme; wage growth; pensionable earnings; rate of return; wage-earners' pension scheme; pensions of wage-earner; Pension spending; Pensions; Public sector; Aging; Civil service
Cover IMF Working Papers
Effects of Long-Run Demographic Changes in a Multi-Country Model
Mr. Paul R Masson
The macroeconomic effects of population aging are explored using data for the G-7 countries and Australia. The link between changes in birth and mortality rates on the one hand, and dependency ratios on the other, is first discussed, then empirical evidence on the effects of dependency ratios on net foreign asset positions and on consumption is presented. Simulations of changes in dependency ratios are then reported, using demographic projections to the year 2025. Finally, the plausibility of the implied changes in net foreign asset positions is discussed.
Keywords:
WP; exchange rate; age structure; dependency ratio; death rate assumption; wealth ratio; consumption equation; net effect; open economy; liability ratio; Foreign assets; Aging; Consumption; Demographic change; Current account balance; Global