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Social Science > Demography

You are looking at 1 - 8 of 8 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
The Macroeconomic Effects of Large Immigration Waves
Philipp Engler
,
Ms. Margaux MacDonald
,
Mr. Roberto Piazza
, and
Galen Sher
We propose a novel approach to measure the dynamic macroeconomic effects of immigration on the destination country, combining the analysis of episodes of large immigration waves with instrumental variables techniques. We distinguish the impact of immigration shocks in OECD countries from that of refugee immigration in emerging and developing economies. In OECD, large immigration waves raise domestic output and productivity in both the short and the medium term, pointing to significant dynamic gains for the host economy. We find no evidence of negative effects on aggregate employment of the native-born population. In contrast, our analysis of large refugee flows into emerging and developing countries does not find clear evidence of macroeconomic effects on the host country, a conclusion in line with a growing body of evidence that refugee immigrants are at disadvantage compared to other type of immigrants.
Keywords:
Immigration; productivity; dynamic gains; immigration wave; immigration shock; immigration episode; OECD migration flow data; migration shock; Migration; Employment; Total factor productivity; Estimation techniques; Middle East
Cover IMF Working Papers
Private Savings and COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa
Mr. Boileau Loko
,
Nelie Nembot
, and
Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro
The paper reexamines the main private savings determinants in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), followed by an analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic impact on private savings in SSA and other country groupings. Using an unbalanced panel data from 1983−2021 for 31 SSA economies, the paper finds that real per capita economic growth remains a key historical determinant of private savings in the region. In contrast with other regions, private saving rates have not increased during COVID-19 in SSA. Instead, COVID-19 deaths in our estimations are significantly associated with a decline in private savings in SSA. Robustness checks and a descriptive analysis of household surveys during the pandemic corroborate those results.
Keywords:
Private Savings; Sub-Saharan Africa; COVID-19; Economic Growth; savings determinants in SSA; pandemic impact; preventive measure; SSA economy; robustness check; Income; Estimation techniques; Middle East; North Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Reexamining the National Savings-Investment Nexus Across Time and Countries
Mr. Antonio David
,
Carlos Goncalves
, and
Alejandro M. Werner
Domestic savings and investment are positively correlated across countries and through time, as Feldstein-Horioka (FH) unveiled 40 years ago. We argue that an interpretation of this correlation based on market failures is more consistent with data patterns than alternative hypotheses. Moreover, resorting to instrumental variables techniques, we conclude that the relationship is causal: an exogenous rise in savings increases investment. This result holds in the full sample of countries and for emerging and developing economies, but there is evidence that the positive association in advanced economies is due to endogeneity bias. The core of our identification strategy relies on the idea that population age structure influences savings, but not total investment directly. Specifically, we use the share of adults in the [35-49] years of age bracket as an instrument for savings. Our estimates pass weak-instruments robust inference.
Keywords:
WP; saving; investment; investment rate; savings-investment correlation; Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle; Investment; Savings; Causality; savings rate; labor-saving technology; saving variable; Domestic savings; Capital account; Estimation techniques; Income; Global; population share affect investment
Cover IMF Working Papers
Income Inequality and Education Revisited: Persistence, Endogeneity, and Heterogeneity
Mr. David Coady
and
Allan Dizioli
This paper presents new results on the relationship between income inequality and education expansion—that is, increasing average years of schooling and reducing inequality of schooling. When dynamic panel estimation techniques are used to address issues of persistence and endogeneity, we find a large, positive, statistically significant and stable relationship between inequality of schooling and income inequality, especially in emerging and developing economies and among older age cohorts. The relationship between income inequality and average years of schooling is positive, consistent with constant or increasing returns to additional years of schooling. While this positive relationship is small and not always statistically significant, we find a statistically significant negative relationship with years of schooling of younger cohorts. Statistical tests indicate that our dynamic estimators are consistent and that our identifying instruments are valid. Policy simulations suggest that education expansion will continue to be inequality reducing. This role will diminish as countries develop, but it could be enhanced through a stronger focus on reducing inequality in the quality of education.
Keywords:
WP; inequality; income
Cover IMF Working Papers
What Matters for Financial Development and Stability?
Raja Almarzoqi
,
Samy Ben Naceur
, and
Akshay Kotak
This study aims to identify policies that influence the development of financial institutions as measured across three dimensions: depth, efficiency, and stability. Applying the concept of the financial possibility frontier, developed by Beck & Feyen (2013) and formalized by Barajas et al (2013a), we determine key policy variables affecting the gap between actual levels of development and benchmarks predicted by structural variables. Our dynamic panel estimation shows that inflation, trade openness, institutional quality, and banking crises significantly affect financial development. Our analysis also helps identify potential complementarities and trade-offs for policy makers, based on the effect of the policy variables across the different dimensions of financial development.
Keywords:
WP; d GMM; s GMM; banking sector; standard deviation; real GDP; financial development; financial stability; financial possibility frontier; difference GMM estimator; system GMM estimator; system GMM estimation; Estimation techniques; Financial sector development; Banking crises; Commercial banks; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Valuation Effects of Geographic Diversification: Evidence From U.S. Banks
Mr. Luc Laeven
,
Mr. Martin R. Goetz
, and
Mr. Ross Levine
This paper assesses the impact of the geographic diversification of bank holding company (BHC) assets across the United States on their market valuations. Using two novel identification strategies based on the dynamic process of interstate bank deregulation, we find that exogenous increases in geographic diversity reduce BHC valuations. These findings are consistent with the view that geographic diversity makes it more difficult for shareholders and creditors to monitor firm executives, allowing corporate insiders to extract larger private benefits from firms.
Keywords:
WP; BHC diversity; bank deregulation; BHC valuation; BHC assets; gravity-deregulation model; Geographic Corporate diversification; Agency problems; Economies of scope; Corporate insiders; Corporate valuation; BHC asset diversification; BHC diversification increase; Estimation techniques; Personal income; Asset valuation; Gravity models; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Kernel Density Estimation Based on Grouped Data: The Case of Poverty Assessment
Ms. Camelia Minoiu
and
Sanjay Reddy
We analyze the performance of kernel density methods applied to grouped data to estimate poverty (as applied in Sala-i-Martin, 2006, QJE). Using Monte Carlo simulations and household surveys, we find that the technique gives rise to biases in poverty estimates, the sign and magnitude of which vary with the bandwidth, the kernel, the number of datapoints, and across poverty lines. Depending on the chosen bandwidth, the $1/day poverty rate in 2000 varies by a factor of 1.8, while the $2/day headcount in 2000 varies by 287 million people. Our findings challenge the validity and robustness of poverty estimates derived through kernel density estimation on grouped data.
Keywords:
WP; poverty estimate; density estimate; kernel density estimation; headcount ratio; standard deviation
Cover IMF Working Papers
Democracy and Foreign Education
Mr. Antonio Spilimbergo
Do foreign-educated individuals play a role in promoting democracy in their home countries? Despite the large amount of private and public resources spent on foreign education, there is no systematic evidence that foreign-educated individuals foster democracy in their home countries. Using a unique panel dataset on foreign students starting from 1950, I show that, indeed, foreign-educated individuals promote democracy in their home country, but only if the foreign education is acquired in democratic countries. The results are robust to reverse causality, country-specific omitted variables, and inclusion of a variety of control variables. The results are stronger for small countries.
Keywords:
WP; host country; dependent variable; number of student