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Social Science > Demography

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  • Type: Journal Issue x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Demographics and the Natural Rate of Interest in Japan
Mr. Fei Han
Japan’s aging and shrinking population could lower the natural rate of interest and, together with low inflation expectations, challenge the Bank of Japan’s efforts to reflate the economy. This paper uses a semi-structural model to estimate the impact of demographics on the natural rate in Japan. We find that demographic change has a significantly negative impact on the natural rate by lowering trend potential growth. We also find that the negative impact has been increasing over time amid stronger demographic headwinds. These findings highlight the importance of boosting potential growth to offset the negative demographic impact and lift the natural rate in Japan.
Keywords:
WP; rate of interest; real interest rate; Demographic change; natural rate of interest; monetary policy; Japan; natural rate; interest rate gap; baseline estimate; core inflation; inflation expectation; Real interest rates; Population growth; Return on investment; Potential output; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Growth Empirics Under Model Uncertainty: Is Africa Different?
Mr. Charalambos G Tsangarides
This paper attempts to identify robust patterns of cross-country growth behavior in the world as a whole and Africa. It employs a novel methodology that incorporates a dynamic panel estimator, and Bayesian Model Averaging to explicitly account for model uncertainty. The findings indicate that: (i) in addition to initial conditions, various economic factors such as higher investment, lower inflation, lower government consumption, better fiscal stance, improved political environment, exogenous terms-of-trade shocks, and fixed geographical factors are robustly correlated with growth; (ii) what is good for growth around the world is, in principle, also good for growth in Africa; and (iii) political and institutional variables are particularly important in explaining African growth.
Keywords:
WP; Economic growth; growth regressions; Bayesian model averaging; dynamic panel estimation; physical capital; Africa sample; repayment ability; growth determinant; land market; panel data systems GMM estimator; civil war; country's authorities; Income; Government consumption; Debt service; Population growth; Africa