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Social Science > Demography

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Social Security Reforms, Retirement and Sectoral Decisions
Bruno R. Delalibera
,
Pedro Cavalcanti Ferreira
, and
Rafael Machado Parente
In many countries, the regulations governing pension systems, hiring procedures, and job contracts differ between the public and private sectors. Public sector employees tend to have longer tenures and higher wages compared to workers in the private sector. As such, social security reforms can affect both retirement decisions and sectoral choices. We study the effects of social security reforms on retirement and sectoral behavior in an economy with multiple pension systems. We develop a general equilibrium life-cycle model with heterogeneous agents, three sectors - private formal, private informal and public - and endogenous retirement. We quantitatively assess the long-run effects of reforms being discussed and implemented around the world. Among them, we study the unification of pension systems and increasing the minimum retirement age. We calibrate our model to Brazil, where several of the retirement conditions resemble those of other countries. We find that these reforms lower the likelihood of individuals to apply to a public job and increase the profile of savings over the life cycle. In the long run, these reforms lead to higher output and capital, reduced informality, and average welfare gains. They also drastically reduce the social security deficit.
Keywords:
Social security reform; Public employment; Public deficit; Informality; reform experiment; retirement condition; social security deficit; retirement decision; Retirement; Aging; Public sector; East Asia; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Understanding Agricultural Output in Mozambique: Using remote sensing to initiate a discussion on development
Kelsee Bratley
and
Alexis Meyer-Cirkel
This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the agricultural land coverage in Mozambique by harnessing advanced remote sensing technologies and draws on successful agricultural development examples to propose strategic pathways for Mozambique. The study leverages Sentinel-2 satellite imagery coupled with a machine learning algorithm to accurately map and assess the country's agricultural land, revealing that agriculture accounts for only 12 percent of Mozambique's land area. By examining the agricultural transformation or “green revolution” that some countries have experienced, it is possible to distill regularities and necessary conditions, which can then be compared to the state-of-affairs in Mozambique. This study not only offers a model of how emerging technologies like remote sensing can inform agricultural state of affairs, it also provides important insights into which concrete bottlenecks are likely to be holding back Mozambique’s agricultural development.
Keywords:
Mozambique; agricultural development; remote sensing; greenrevolution; poverty alleviation; remote sensing technology; satellite imagery; accuracy assessment; agricultural land usage; area estimation; Agricultural sector; Agricultural commodities; Agricultural production; Food security; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Estimating Digital Infrastructure Investment Needs to Achieve Universal Broadband
Edward Oughton
,
Mr. David Amaglobeli
, and
Mr. Mariano Moszoro
We develop a detailed model to evaluate the necessary investment requirements to achieve affordable universal broadband. The results indicate that approximately $418 billion needs to be mobilized to connect all unconnected citizens globally (targeting 40-50 GB/Month per user with 95 percent reliability). The bulk of additional investment is for emerging market economies (73 percent) and low-income developing countries (24 percent). We also find that if the data consumption level is lowered to 10-20 GB/Month per user, the total cost decreases by up to about half, whereas raising data consumption to 80-100 GB/Month per user leads to a cost increase of roughly 90 percent relative to the baseline. Moreover, a 40 percent cost decrease occurs when varying the peak hour quality of service level from the baseline 95 percent reliability, to only 50 percent reliability. To conclude, broadband policy assessments should be explicit about the quantity of data and the reliability of service provided to users. Failure to do so will lead to inaccurate estimates and, ultimately, to poor broadband policy decisions.
Keywords:
Broadband; Digital Infrastructure; Public Investment; Sustainable Development Goals; cost decrease; investment requirement; infrastructure investment; cost sensitivity; data consumption; policy assessment; estimation metrics; cost driver; data traffic; infrastructure cost modeling; Digitalization; Infrastructure; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global; Caribbean; Central Asia and the Caucasus; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Brazil: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
recession response; COVID lockdown stringency; title page; baseline vaccination projection; vaccination path; CA adjustment; Economic recession; COVID-19; Private savings; Exports; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
When Do Politicians Appeal Broadly? The Economic Consequences of Electoral Rules in Brazil
Moya Chin
Electoral rules determine how voters' preferences are aggregated and translated into political representation, and their design can lead to the election of representatives who represent broader or narrower constituencies. Relying on a regression discontinuity design, I contrast single- and two-round elections in Brazilian municipal races. Two-round elections use two rounds of voting to elect a winner, ensuring that the eventual winner obtains at least 50% of the vote. Theoretically, this can provide incentives for candidates to secure a broader base of support. Consistent with this, I show that in two-round elections, candidates represent a more geographically diverse group of voters, public schools have more resources, and there is less variation in resources across public schools. Effects appear to be driven by strategic responses of candidates, rather than differential entry into races. These results suggest that two-round elections can lead candidates to secure broader bases of support and to distribute public goods more broadly.
Keywords:
Electoral institutions; voting theory; political responsiveness; political favoritism; education resources; candidate maximization problem; two-round election; voter threshold; appendix C. theory appendix; concentration of voter; swingable voter; Infrastructure; Income; Budget planning and preparation
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Pandemic Forecasting Framework: An Application of Risk Analysis
Allan Dizioli
,
Daniel Rivera Greenwood
, and
Aneta Radzikowski
This paper introduces a simple, frequently and easily updated, close to the data epidemiological model that has been used for near-term forecast and policy analysis. We provide several practical examples of how the model has been used. We explain the epidemic development in the UK, the USA and Brazil through the model lens. Moreover, we show how our model would have predicted that a super infectious variant, such as the delta, would spread and argue that current vaccination levels in many countries are not enough to curb other waves of infections in the future. Finally, we briefly discuss the importance of how to model re-infections in epidemiological models.
Keywords:
COVID-19; epidemiology modelling; vaccines impact; virus variants and testing; vaccine hesitancy; vaccination data; Google mobility; virus variant; vaccination assumption; COVID-19; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Aging; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Generational Aspects of Inclusive Growth
Mr. Benedicte Baduel
,
Asel Isakova
, and
Anna Ter-Martirosyan
Sharing economic benefits equitably across all segments of society includes addressing the specific challenges of different generations. At present, youth and elderly are particularly vulnerable to poverty relative to adults in their middle years. Broad-based policies should aim to foster youth integration into the labor market and ensure adequate income and health care support for the elderly. Turning to the intergenerational dimension, everyone should have the same chances in life, regardless of their family background. Policies that promote social mobility include improving access to high-quality care and education starting from a very early age, supporting lifelong learning, effective social protection schemes, and investing in infrastructure and other services to reduce spatial segregation.
Keywords:
inequality; inclusive growth; youth employment; elderly poverty; intergenerational mobility; WP; social mobility; youth labor market outcome; growth indexation; life satisfaction; wage inequality; income composition; labor market prospects; education mobility; elderly people; absolute poverty; Labor markets; Aging; Income; Global; Africa; Middle East
Cover IMF Working Papers
Electricity Consumption and Temperature: Evidence from Satellite Data
Jiaxiong Yao
Past studies on the relationship between electricity consumption and temperature have primarily focused on individual countries. Many regions are understudied as a result of data constraint. This paper studies the relationship on a global scale, overcoming the data constraint by using grid-level night light and temperature data. Mostly generated by electricity and recorded by satellites, night light has a strong linear relationship with electricity consumption and is correlated with both its extensive and intensive margins. Using night light as a proxy for electricity consumption at the grid level, we find: (1) there is a U-shaped relationship between electricity consumption and temperature; (2) the critical point of temperature for minimum electricity consumption is around 14.6°C for the world and it is higher in urban and more industrial areas; and (3) the impact of temperature on electricity consumption is persistent. Sub-Saharan African countries, while facing a large electricity deficit already, are particularly vulnerable to climate change: a 1°C increase in temperature is estimated to increase their electricity demand by 6.7% on average.
Keywords:
Electricity consumption; temperature; night light; climate change.; WP; electricity access; electricity demand; term E
Cover IMF Working Papers
Doing More with Less: How Can Brazil Foster Development While Pursuing Fiscal Consolidation?
Valentina Flamini
and
Mauricio Soto
Following a benchmarking exercise, we estimate the spending required to reach satisfactory progress in the Sustainable Development Goals in the health, education, and infrastructure sectors in Brazil. We find that there is room for savings in education (up to 1.5 percentage point of GDP) and health (up to 2.5 percentage points of GDP) without compromising the quality of services but additional investments for over 3 percent of GDP per year are needed to close large infrastructure gaps in roads, water, and electricity by 2030. Brazil can do more with less, but increasing efficiency of public spending will require substantial reforms.
Keywords:
WP; spending; cost; infrastructure gap; generation capacity; SDGs; development; fiscal policy; public spending; Brazil; pf GDP; Health expenditure distribution; spending ceiling; GDP Capita; Infrastructure SDG cost; GDP loss; cost estimate; Brazil's GDP; infrastructure quality; spending floor; Infrastructure; Health care spending; South America
Cover IMF Working Papers
Who Creates New Firms When Local Opportunities Arise?
Shai Bernstein
,
Emanuele Colonnelli
,
Mr. Davide Malacrino
, and
Tim McQuade
New firm formation is a critical driver of job creation, and an important contributor to the responsiveness of the economy to aggregate shocks. In this paper we examine the characteristics of the individuals who become entrepreneurs when local opportunities arise due to an increase in local demand. We identify local demand shocks by linking fluctuations in global commodity prices to municipality level agricultural endowments in Brazil. We find that the firm creation response is almost entirely driven by young and skilled individuals, as measured by their level of experience, education, and past occupations involving creativity, problem-solving and managerial roles. In contrast, we find no such response within the same municipalities among skilled, yet older individuals, highlighting the importance of lifecycle considerations. These responsive individuals are younger and more skilled than the average entrepreneur in the population. The entrepreneurial response of young individuals is larger in municipalities with better access to finance, and in municipalities with more skilled human capital. These results highlight how the characteristics of the local population can have a significant impact on the entrepreneurial responsiveness of the economy.
Keywords:
Entrepreneurship; Firms; Financial Development; Commodities; creation response; experience distribution; heterogeneous firm; firm entry response; firm creation rate; marginal revenue; created firm; time series; fertility rate; Self-employment; Labor force; Employment; Global