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Social Science > Demography

You are looking at 1 - 9 of 9 items for :

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Cover Selected Issues Papers
The Bulgarian Pension System: Caught Between Adequacy and Sustainability: Bulgaria
Jean-Jacques Hallaert
During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bulgarian authorities increased pensions substantially to support pensioners’ living standards and aggregate demand. These increases have become permanent and improved the adequacy of pensions. However, not matched by revenue measures, they have widened the deficit of the pension system. Reforms that increase the incentives to contribute to the pension system and thus revenue would improve the financial sustainability of the pension system and reduce fiscal risks.
Keywords:
Bulgaria; Pension; Pension Adequacy; Financial Sustainability; Fiscal Risk from Pensions; pension entitlement; pension level; entitlements in social insurance; IMF staff calculation; Pension spending; Pensions; Aging; Pension system sustainability; Tax allowances; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bulgaria: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on the Bulgarian pension system. The paper provides an overview of the pension system and describes measures taken in the last decade to increase its financial sustainability. It highlights how the measures taken during and after the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic structurally affect the financial sustainability of the pension system. The paper also shows that the recent measures compound the long-term pressure related to an aging population. It also details policies that could contain the projected increase in pension spending. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bulgarian authorities increased pensions substantially to support pensioners’ living standards and aggregate demand. These increases have become permanent and improved the adequacy of pensions. However, not matched by revenue measures, they have widened the deficit of the pension system. Reforms that increase the incentives to contribute to the pension system and thus revenue would improve the financial sustainability of the pension system and reduce fiscal risks.
Keywords:
GVC Integration; IMF staff calculation; return on assets; GVC participation; EU country; current ratio; Pension spending; Pensions; Aging; Exports; Public enterprises; Global; Europe
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Labor Force Participation in Romania
Florian Misch
and
Mr. Alexander Pitt
Labor force particiaption (LFP) in Romania is—at 66.8 percent in 2022—significantly lower than the EU average, especially among women and less educated people. With a declining working-age population, rasing LFP could yield signifcant benefits including by boosting long-term growth, mitigating the fiscal impact of an ageing society, and reducing inequality. Key policies to boost LFP include provision of affordabel high-quality childcare, and improving education standards.
Keywords:
Labor force participation; gender gap; demographics; IMF staff calculation; copyright page; rase LFP; policy implication; EU LFP level; Romania's LFP gender gap; Women; Aging; Western Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Romania: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the reasons for Romania’s low labor force participation (LFP), and outlines policy options to raise it. It provides an overview over Romania’s demographic challenges, analyzes LFP across demographic groups, and identifies possible causes. The paper also outlines policy options that could help raise LFP of specific population groups and presents simple simulations of the impact on overall LFP and potential gross domestic product if LFP of particular groups were to increase. Boosting Romania’s low LFP opens opportunities to mitigate the impact of an ageing society and to support Romania’s convergence to Western European peers. Higher LFP could also help mitigate the fiscal impact of an ageing society. The reasons for the Romania’s underperformance in education are difficult to pinpoint, but public education expenditure is by far the lowest in the EU. Moreover, raising education spending would constitute a significant investment and would need to be coupled with targeted reforms in the education system.
Keywords:
IMF staff calculation; energy mix; C. climate policy; policy pathway; EU LFP level; Romania team; Greenhouse gas emissions; Renewable energy; Women; Global; Western Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bulgaria: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bulgaria
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Bulgarian economy is performing well. Growth has been on an upward trend and is estimated to reach 3.8 percent in 2017 and 2018, driven by strong exports, easier financial conditions, and growing confidence. The current account remained in surplus in 2017, despite rapid wage growth. The economy shows signs of a closing output gap. Headline inflation turned positive in 2017 and inflationary pressure is rising. Fiscal outcomes have been stronger than budgeted in recent years, reflecting mainly revenue overperformance and under-execution of capital spending. The main challenge is to translate this recent recovery into sustained and inclusive growth and convergence with other European Union countries.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Bulgaria; government; GDP; finances; public goods; EU average; Bulgarian authorities; BNB legislation; per capita income; Wages; Income; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bulgaria: Selected Issues Paper
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper highlights Bulgaria’s state-owned enterprises (SOEs) sector and to assess its performance in a regional perspective. A detailed and rich firm-level dataset of state-owned and private firms was compiled for this note to compare key performance indicators of SOEs to private firms in the same sector and to similar firms in Croatia and Romania for a regional comparison. In some network industries, such as energy, SOEs are heavily loss-making. Large amounts of debt have been piled up notably in the energy and transport sectors which, to the extent that it is classified outside the general government accounts, can pose significant risk to public finances in the form of contingent liabilities if the SOEs run into financial difficulties. SOE profitability and resource allocation efficiency largely lag private firms in the same sectors, even when isolating SOEs engaged in competitive market activities and hence classified outside of general government. Coupled with comparably poor output quality, these challenges have the potential to impair competitiveness and productivity across the economy.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; bond yield; firm; Bulgaria; ECB policy rate; Bulgaria yield regression; currency bond yield; interbank market rate; insolvency process; ECB policy action; interest rate; Solvency; Aging; Public enterprises; Bond yields; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bosnia and Herzegovina: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
Threats to external stability in the pre-crisis period have now been reduced substantially and foreign non-debt creating flows have declined, sufficient to support external stability. The global economic downturn has raised challenges for evaluating the countries’ fiscal stance and fiscal policy focus should be lowering support to debt sustainability, private sector development, and the currency board stability. The two entity pension funds have been under increasing financial pressures. Putting the public pension systems on a sound footing will encompass a number of complementary steps.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; pension; current account; FBIH Army Civil Commanders; pension system; RS pension strategy; dependency ratio; voucher-privatized enterprise; labor market; disaggregated CAB; Pension spending; Pensions; Current account deficits; Global; Europe; Eastern Europe
Cover Labor Market Performance in Transition
Labor Market Performance in Transition
The Experience of Central and Eastern European Countries
Mr. Philippe Egoume Bossogo
,
Mr. Jerald A Schiff
,
Ms. Miho Ihara
,
Mr. Tetsuya Konuki
, and
Ms. Kornelia Krajnyak

Abstract

More than a decade after the start of the transition process, unemployment rates remain in the double digits in a number of Central and Eastern European countries. That unemployment rates have failed to decline, even in countries experiencing good growth, is puzzling. In this paper the authors examine three interrelated questions: How has the transition from central planning to market economies affected labor market performance? How have labor market institutions and policies influenced developments? Why have regional differences in unemployment persisted? The authors take an eclectic methodological approach: construction of a new data set and a simple analytical model; econometric estimation; and case studies. They find that faster-performing countries have better unemployment records; that labor market policies have some, but not dominant, influence over labor market outcomes; that policies not typically viewed as labor market policies can nevertheless significantly affect labor markets; and that market processes cannot be relied on to eliminate regional differences in unemployment.

Keywords:
OP; economy; labor market performance; high-unemployment region; low-unemployment region; employment growth; labor market outcome; Labor markets; Unemployment; Unemployment rate; Employment; Baltics; Eastern Europe; Europe; Western Europe; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
How Far Is Eastern Europe from Brussels?
Ms. Ratna Sahay
,
Mr. Carlos A. Végh Gramont
, and
Mr. Stanley Fischer
The current destination of Central and Eastern European countries—explicitly for some, implicitly for all—is Brussels. The concept of the distance from Brussels is multi-dimensional. One simple measure, not without theoretical and empirical justification, is physical distance. This paper’s focus, however, lies more in the distances in time and economic space. The paper first compares income gaps between Central and Eastern European and European Union (EU) countries, then evaluates recent economic performance in Central and Eastern Europe in light of EU standards. Finally; addresses the question of how long it will take the Central and Eastern European countries to close the income gap with EU countries.
Keywords:
WP; CEE country; country; transition; convergence; CEE transition country; CEE countries to the EU; countries of CEE; transition countries in Central and Eastern Europe; Personal income; Government consumption; Fiscal stance; Inflation; Population growth; Western Europe; Central and Eastern Europe; income gap; gaps between CEE; estimating income; Income; Eastern Europe