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Social Science > Demography

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 49 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Satellite-Based Census of Residential Buildings: Application for Climate Risk Assessment
Andinet Woldemichael
and
Iyke Maduako
Housing represents the largest asset and liability, in the form of mortgages, on most national balance sheet. For most households it is their largest investment, and when mortgages are required also represents the largest component of household debt. It is also directly tied to financial markets, both the mortgage market and insurance sector. Although many countries have a rich set of housing censuses and statistics, others have large data gap in this area and therefore struggle to formulate effective policies. This paper proposes an approach to construct a global census of residential buildings using opensource satellite data. Such a layer can be used to assess the extent these buildings are exposed to climate hazards and how their production and consumption, in turn, affect the climate. The approach we propose could be scaled globally, combining existing layers of building footprints, climate and socioeconomic data. It adds to the ongoing effort of compiling spatially explicit and granular climate indicators to better inform policies. As a case study, we compute selected indicators and estimate the extent of residential properties exposure to riverine flood risk for Kenya.
Keywords:
Census of buildings; Climate Exposure; Building Footprint; flood risk; property indicator; aggregate dwellings Capital Stock value; descriptive statistics of the data; flood hazard map; return period; Housing; Climate change; Stocks; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Aging Gracefully: Steering the Banking Sector through Demographic Shifts
Patrick A. Imam
and
Christian Schmieder
We analyze how aging populations might affect the stability of banking systems through changes in the balance sheets and risk preferences of banks over the period 2000-2022. While the anticipated decline in maturity transformation due to aging hints at a possible reduction in risk exposure, an older population may propel banks towards yield-seeking behaviors, offsetting the diminishing prominence of conventional lending operations. Through a comprehensive examination of advanced economies over the past two decades, our findings reveal a general enhancement in bank stability correlating with the aging of populations. However, the adaptive responses of banks to these demographic changes are potentially introducing tail risks. Given the rapid global shift towards aging societies, our analysis highlights the critical need for policymakers to be proactive and vigilant. This is particularly pertinent considering historical precedents where periods of relative stability have often been harbingers of emerging risks.
Keywords:
Aging; Demographics; Bank risk-taking; Financial Stability; IMF working paper No. 24/118; tail risk; risk preference; stability risk; solvency profile; bank assets; Commercial banks; Bank soundness; Loans; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Unveiling the Hidden Impact of Urban Land Rents on Total Factor Productivity
Mr. Bas B. Bakker
This paper addresses the puzzling decline of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) levels in rapidly growing economies, such as Singapore, despite advancements in technology and high GDP per capita growth. The paper proposes that TFP growth is not negative; instead, standard growth decompositions have underestimated TFP growth by overestimating the contribution of capital, failing to account for the substantial part of capital income directed to urban land rents. This leads to an overestimation of changes in capital stock's contribution to growth and thereby an underestimation of TFP growth. A revised decomposition suggests that TFP growth in economies with high land rents and rapid capital stock growth, such as Singapore, has been considerably underestimated: TFP levels have not declined but increased rapidly.
Keywords:
Total Factor Productivity; Economic Growth; Capital Stock; Land Rents; Growth Decomposition; Urban Economics; Population Density; Diminishing Returns to Scale; Technological Progress; Singapore; TFP level; re-estimating TFP; land rent; decline of total factor productivity; Capital income; Stocks; Land prices; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Finance Vaccine Equity: Funding for Day-Zero of the Next Pandemic
Ruchir Agarwal
and
Tristan Reed
A lack of timely financing for purchases of vaccines and other health products impeded the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on analysis of contract signature and delivery dates in COVID-19 vaccine advance purchase agreements, this paper finds that 60-75 percent of the delay in vaccine deliveries to low- and middle-income countries is attributable to their signing purchase agreements later than high-income countries, which placed them further behind in the delivery line. A pandemic Advance Commitment Facility with access to a credit line on day-zero of the next pandemic could allow low- and middle-income countries to secure orders earlier, ensuring a much faster and equitable global response than during COVD-19. The paper outlines four options for a financier to absorb some or all of the risk associated with the credit line and discusses how the credit would complement other proposals to strengthen the financing architecture for pandemic preparedness, prevention, and response.
Keywords:
COVID-19; pandemics; systemic risks; economic crisis; pandemic advance commitment facility; financing vaccine equity; working paper series; health product; delivery data; Lines of credit; Global; emergency financing facility; pandemic bond; prevention, preparedness, and response; pandemic preparedness partnership; purchase contract date; signing purchase agreements; next pandemic
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Vietnam: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the impact of environment and climate change on Vietnam’s economic growth. Vietnam’s economy and population are expected to be increasingly affected by climate change. In addition, the country’s growth model—which permitted quick reduction of poverty—has been unsustainably relying on mining and natural resources. The level of air, land and water pollution has also increased in the country. Well aware of the critical challenges faced by the country, the government has undertaken numerous initiatives and programs to adapt the economy to climate change risks and transform the growth model to support an environmental-friendly economy, but significant challenges remain.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Vietnam; climate change financing; credit misallocation; A. climate change; IMF staff calculation; climate change risk; Nonperforming loans; Credit; Climate change; Aging; Europe; Mekong; Central and Eastern Europe; Global; Southeast Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bulgaria: Selected Issues Paper
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper highlights Bulgaria’s state-owned enterprises (SOEs) sector and to assess its performance in a regional perspective. A detailed and rich firm-level dataset of state-owned and private firms was compiled for this note to compare key performance indicators of SOEs to private firms in the same sector and to similar firms in Croatia and Romania for a regional comparison. In some network industries, such as energy, SOEs are heavily loss-making. Large amounts of debt have been piled up notably in the energy and transport sectors which, to the extent that it is classified outside the general government accounts, can pose significant risk to public finances in the form of contingent liabilities if the SOEs run into financial difficulties. SOE profitability and resource allocation efficiency largely lag private firms in the same sectors, even when isolating SOEs engaged in competitive market activities and hence classified outside of general government. Coupled with comparably poor output quality, these challenges have the potential to impair competitiveness and productivity across the economy.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; bond yield; firm; Bulgaria; ECB policy rate; Bulgaria yield regression; currency bond yield; interbank market rate; insolvency process; ECB policy action; interest rate; Solvency; Aging; Public enterprises; Bond yields; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Singapore: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Singapore
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that Singapore’s economy continues to perform well despite being hit by a combination of cyclical and structural factors, originating both at home and abroad. Growth moderated from 3.3 percent in 2014 to 2 percent in 2015, and it was 2.2 percent in the first half of 2016. Unemployment has remained low, but net employment generation slowed rapidly in 2015, and headline inflation has stayed below zero since late 2014. Growth is projected to moderate slightly to 1.7 percent in 2016 as the full impact of the global shocks experienced in 2015 is felt, and is expected to recover to 2.2 percent in 2017.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; core inflation; Singapore; Singapore dollar; headline inflation; Singapore economy; Core CPI inflation; bond issuance; currency speculation; monetary policy easing; mas core inflation; Inflation; Loans; Aging; Global; IMF's transparency policy; Private investment
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This paper discusses selected issues related to the economy of Thailand. The economy of Thailand is largely dependent on China. A 1 percent decline in China’s GDP lowers Thailand’s output by about 0.2 percent. Population aging is another major issue in Thailand. This Association of Southeast Asian Nations country will face the dual challenge of increasing the coverage of the social security system and ensuring its long-term sustainability. Thailand’s financial sector has expanded rapidly over the last decade, and important changes in its structure have taken place. While corporate debt has remained broadly stable, household debt has increased to one of the highest levels among emerging markets, raising concerns about household debt overhang.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Thailand; China; GDP; Other Asean-5 Countries; household debt; China shock; dependency ratio; public health expenditure; wage cap; employees of state enterprises; Pensions; Pension spending; Aging; Exports; Commercial banks; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bangladesh: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This paper discusses three main issues: bank lending rates, impact of climate change on the economy of Bangladesh, and financial inclusion in Bangladesh. According to international standards, average bank lending rates and interest rate spreads in Bangladesh are not high. Various prudent policies have been implemented to bring interest rates down further. Bangladesh is considered among the top countries in the world for vulnerability to climate change, because of its geographical location and topography. The Bangladesh government has taken a number of initiatives to expand financial inclusion in the country. Financial inclusion helps increase the incomes of financially marginalized members of a society.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Bangladesh; rate; IMF staff calculation; lending; bank; Bangladesh climate change strategy; microcredit program; FI indicator; FI policy; climate change impact; Climate change; Deposit rates; Credit; Loans; Nonperforming loans; South Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Malta: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Malta’s economy is growing strongly. Real GDP growth has been one of the highest in the euro area since the beginning of the crisis, supported by vibrant domestic demand, large infrastructure projects, and a stable banking sector. Unemployment is at historical lows, and labor participation is increasing. The current account remains in surplus, and the external position is broadly in line with fundamentals. Growth is expected to remain solid in 2016–17, driven initially by domestic demand and later by a gradual recovery of external demand. Inflation is projected to pick up gradually owing to the positive output gap and higher imported inflation on account of the weaker exchange rate.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; financing; bank; Malta; SDDS preparation; IMF staff estimate; upside risk; consultation discussion; Malta's economy; growth financing; summary trade statistics; financial market; volume estimate; Nonperforming loans; Labor markets; Income; Aging; Global