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Social Science > Demography

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 28 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
How Widespread is FDI Fragmentation?
Joanne Tan
This paper examines the extent to which FDI has fragmented across countries, the ways it has done so, using a modified gravity approach. The paper finds that FDI fragmentation is, for now, not a widespread phenomenon. Instead, fragmentation is circumscribed in two ways. First, the paper finds that geo-economic fragmentation has occurred only for certain industries that likely have strategic value, including computer manufacturing, information and communications, transport, as well as professional, scientific and technical services. Secondly, fragmentation appears to be more pronounced for outward FDI from the US, notably in a shift of US FDI from China to advanced Europe and the rest of Asia. This shift appears to be driven by both the intensive and extensive margin. Fragmentation is also more pronounced for immediate rather than ultimate FDI, with evidence of ultimate parent companies aligning the geopolitical mix of their intermediaries more closely to that of their final FDI host destinations. Overall, the results suggest that fragmentation, where found, may be a response to targeted policies that have placed curbs on certain types of FDI on national security grounds, rather than an indiscriminate breakup of investment links between non-ally countries.
Keywords:
Fragmentation; Foreign Direct Investment; FDI fragmentation; host destination; FDI from the US; FDI from China; FDI host destination; Exchange rates; Manufacturing; Trade agreements; Europe; Asia and Pacific; Global; Western Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Joint Effect of Emigration and Remittances on Economic Growth and Labor Force Participation in Latin America and the Caribbean
Alina Carare
,
Alejandro Fiorito Baratas
,
Jessie Kilembe
,
Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov
, and
Wenzhang Zhang
We provide a consistent empirical framework to estimate the net joint effect of emigration and remittances on the migrants’ countries of origin key economic variables (GDP growth and labor force participation), while addressing the endogeneity concerns using novel “shift-share” instrumental variables in the spirit of Anelli and others (2023). Understanding this joint impact is crucial for the Latin America and the Caribbean region that has seen a continuous growth in remittances over the past decades, due to steady emigration, and where remittances represent the largest capital inflows for many countries now. Focusing on the past two decades (1999-2019), this study finds that on average emigration has a negative and statistically significant impact on contemporaneous economic growth and change in labor force participation in the countries of origin across LAC, while remittances partially mitigate this adverse impact—especially on economic growth—resulting in a small negative net joint effect. There are significant differences across subregions for all estimates, with the largest negative effects observed in the Caribbean. In addition, the negative impact of emigration and remittances on the change in labor participation is small, but for the youngest cohort (15-24) is twice as large as for the overall labor force participation. The results are robust to various specifications, variables, and measurements of emigration and remittances.
Keywords:
Emigration; Remittances; Labor Force Participation; Economic Growth; Latin America; emigration flow; emigration rate; remittances in Lac; estimates of emigration; remittances on the migrants' countries of origin; Migration; Income; Caribbean; Central America; South America
Cover IMF Working Papers
Low for (Very) Long? A Long-Run Perspective on r* across Advanced Economies
Josef Platzer
,
Mr. Francesco Grigoli
, and
Robin Tietz
We provide a long-run perspective on neutral interest rates with new estimates for 16 advanced economies since the 1870s using the Laubach and Williams approach. Our estimates differ substantially from commonly used proxies. We find that, while cross-country heterogeneity was significant in the past, since the 1980s the decline has been common to many countries. Traditional determinants such as population aging and productivity growth are strongly correlated with the changes in neutral rates, while others like the relative price of capital and inequality exhibit weak relationships with r*. We also find that neutral rates co-vary negatively with public debt-to-GDP ratios.
Keywords:
neutral rate; old-age dependency ratio; time series; neutral interest rates; coefficient estimate; cited estimation approach; estimation procedure; Real interest rates; Capital account; Aging; Output gap; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Romania: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
assessment of the size; Consumer Goods import; Policy recommendation; regional disparity; policy recommendation; Current account; Current account deficits; Current account balance; External balance assessment (EBA); Western Europe; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
What Explains Remittance Fees? Panel Evidence
Thorsten Beck
,
Mathilde Janfils
, and
Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
This paper uses data across 365 corridors to document time and country variation in remittance fees and explore factors predicting variation in remittance fees. We document a general reduction in such fees over the past decade although the goal of fees below 3 percent has not been met yet in many corridors. We identify both cost- and risk-based constraints and market structure as barriers to lower remittance fees. Higher transaction costs as result of a more rural population in the sending country and lower scale are associated with higher remittance fees. However, lower risks due to the stability of fixed exchange rates and Internet rather than cash payment are associated with lower remittance fees. Finally, remittance corridors dominated by banks and few players are characterized by higher fees.
Keywords:
Remittances; migration; access to financial services; remittance fee; remittance cost; remittance corridor; A. remittance; panel evidence; Exchange rate arrangements; Capital controls; Plurilateral trade; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Reexamining the National Savings-Investment Nexus Across Time and Countries
Mr. Antonio David
,
Carlos Goncalves
, and
Alejandro M. Werner
Domestic savings and investment are positively correlated across countries and through time, as Feldstein-Horioka (FH) unveiled 40 years ago. We argue that an interpretation of this correlation based on market failures is more consistent with data patterns than alternative hypotheses. Moreover, resorting to instrumental variables techniques, we conclude that the relationship is causal: an exogenous rise in savings increases investment. This result holds in the full sample of countries and for emerging and developing economies, but there is evidence that the positive association in advanced economies is due to endogeneity bias. The core of our identification strategy relies on the idea that population age structure influences savings, but not total investment directly. Specifically, we use the share of adults in the [35-49] years of age bracket as an instrument for savings. Our estimates pass weak-instruments robust inference.
Keywords:
WP; saving; investment; investment rate; savings-investment correlation; Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle; Investment; Savings; Causality; savings rate; labor-saving technology; saving variable; Domestic savings; Capital account; Estimation techniques; Income; Global; population share affect investment
Cover IMF Working Papers
Demographics, Old-Age Transfers and the Current Account
Mai Dao
and
Callum Jones
Building on the evolving literature on the topic, this paper reviews the relationship between demographics and long-run capital flows in both theory and in the data. For this purpose, we develop a two region overlapping generations model where countries differ in their population growth and mortality risk. Besides exploring the implications of demographics for saving and the current account over the long-run, we also study how these might be affected by differences in the coverage and sustainability of old-age transfer schemes. The model predicts that population structure and life expectancy (which affects the need to save to meet old age consumption) affect current account levels, and that while countries with more generous unfunded transfer schemes tend to have lower saving and more capital inflows over the long-run, this effect may be dampened by natural limits (on taxation) of these schemes. The key predictions of the model are generally supported by a rich panel dataset.
Keywords:
WP; dependency ratio; open economy; OLG framework; transfer scheme; welfare perspective; Demographics; Current Account Flows; Pensions; External Imbalances; ratio observation; demographics affect aggregate saving; country Fe; life expectancy country; pay-as-you-go Old-age transfer system; lifecycle model; country open economy model; Aging; Current account; Capital flows; Global
Cover External Sector Report, July 2018
External Sector Report, July 2018
Tackling Global Imbalances amid Rising Trade Tensions
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

The External Sector Report presents a methodologically consistent assessment of the exchange rates, current accounts, reserves, capital flows, and external balance sheets of the world’s largest economies. The 2018 edition includes an analytical assessment of how trade costs and related policy barriers drive excess global imbalances.

Keywords:
ESR; deficit; surplus; policy; deficit side; external; REER gap; assessed current account gap; trade cost; policy recommendation; Current account; Real effective exchange rates; External balance assessment (EBA); Current account balance; Global; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Singapore: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This paper outlines that the banking sector remains healthy, backed by high capital, liquidity, provisioning and profitability ratios. Sector-wide nonperforming loans (NPLs) have increased slightly (to 2 percent in 2017:Q1), due largely to stresses in the Oil and Gas (O&G) services sector. Banks have responded by increasing provisions (using forward-looking measures of impairment) and restructuring their loans. Overall, the banking sector is well-positioned to withstand shocks. Capital and liquidity positions are sufficiently strong and well above regulatory requirements. Capital and liquidity positions of the local banking groups remain strong. Liquidity coverage ratios (LCR) of all three major banks remained high and rose in 2016:Q4, remaining well above the regulatory limits. The turnaround in bank’s profitability (especially the strong performance in 2017:Q1) is attributed to two factors: an acceleration in credit growth and increases in fee income from wealth management services. Local banks have been a key factor behind the wealth management sector’s growth and its main beneficiary.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Singapore; private sector; bank; private saving; saving rate; wealth management; property market stability; housing affordability; Private savings; Income; Capital flows; Aging; Macroprudential policy instruments; Global; Asia and Pacific; North America; Australia and New Zealand
Cover IMF Working Papers
Migration and Remittances in Latin America and the Caribbean: Engines of Growth and Macroeconomic Stabilizers?
Ms. Kimberly Beaton
,
Ms. Svetlana Cerovic
,
Misael Galdamez
,
Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov
,
Franz Loyola
,
Zsoka Koczan
,
Mr. Bogdan Lissovolik
,
Mr. Jan Kees Martijn
,
Ms. Yulia Ustyugova
, and
Joyce Wong
Outward migration has been an important phenomenon for countries in Latin American and the Caribbean (LAC), particularly those in Central America and the Caribbean. This paper examines recent trends in outward migration from and remittances to LAC, as well as their costs and benefits. For the home country, the negative impact from emigration on labor resources and productivity seems to outweigh growth gains from remittances, notably for the Caribbean. However, given emigration, remittance flows play key financing and stabilizing roles in Central America and the Caribbean. They facilitate private consumption smoothing, support financial sector stability and fiscal revenues, and help reduce poverty and inequality, without strong evidence for harmful competitiveness effects through shifts in the real exchange rate.
Keywords:
WP; remittance inflow; economic migration; cost of remittance; remittance flow; remittances emigrant; International Migration; Remittances; Latin America; Caribbean; GDP ratio; remittances-recipient country; remittance sender; remittance transaction; remittance corridor; Gini coefficient; Migration; Income; Consumption; South America; Central America; Global