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Social Science > Demography

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 22 items for :

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Cover Technical Assistance Reports
United Kingdom-Montserrat-British Overseas Territory: Technical Assistance Report-Report on External Sector Statistics Mission (March 18–28, 2024)
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
and
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
A technical assistance (TA) mission on external sector statistics (ESS) was conducted for the Statistics Department of Montserrat (SDM), during March 18–28, 2024. The mission was undertaken as part of the Caribbean Regional Technical Assistance Centre (CARTAC) work program on ESS. The main purpose of this mission was to assist the SDM in extrapolating the results of the Visitor Expenditure Survey (VES) conducted by the SDM and Montserrat Tourism Division (MTD). The purpose of the VES was to enhance estimates of travel services credits recorded in the current account of the balance of payments (BOP).
Keywords:
Montserrat; balance of payments statistics; travel exports; visitor expenditure survey.; excursionist visitor; IMF's Statistics Department; travel credit; cruise visitor; visitor expenditure survey; Credit; External sector statistics; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Vanuatu: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper discusses sea-level rise impacts and adaptation in Vanuatu. Sea-level will continue to increase during this century directly caused by global warming and melting of terrestrial ice. While Vanuatu cannot control global sea-level, it can manage how it affects the country by adapting. Staff analysis estimates the cost of sea-level rise under alternative adaptation strategies: (1) no-adaptation; (2) protection; and (3) planned retreat. Such analysis can help the government to identify trade-offs between efficiency and equity, and choose according to the preferences of the population, consistent with public finance objectives. Preliminary results show that complete protection of coastal areas in Vanuatu is costly while planned retreat from the coastline is the least-cost adaptation response. However, given the mountainous nature of the islands, only small areas of the main population centers of Port Vila and Luganville are at risk of being permanently inundated even with very high sea level rise.
Keywords:
summary statistics; sea-level rise; surface temperature; adaptation in Vanuatu; Vanuatu with CIAM; Climate change; Environmental policy; Natural disasters; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Macroeconomic Effects of Large Immigration Waves
Philipp Engler
,
Ms. Margaux MacDonald
,
Mr. Roberto Piazza
, and
Galen Sher
We propose a novel approach to measure the dynamic macroeconomic effects of immigration on the destination country, combining the analysis of episodes of large immigration waves with instrumental variables techniques. We distinguish the impact of immigration shocks in OECD countries from that of refugee immigration in emerging and developing economies. In OECD, large immigration waves raise domestic output and productivity in both the short and the medium term, pointing to significant dynamic gains for the host economy. We find no evidence of negative effects on aggregate employment of the native-born population. In contrast, our analysis of large refugee flows into emerging and developing countries does not find clear evidence of macroeconomic effects on the host country, a conclusion in line with a growing body of evidence that refugee immigrants are at disadvantage compared to other type of immigrants.
Keywords:
Immigration; productivity; dynamic gains; immigration wave; immigration shock; immigration episode; OECD migration flow data; migration shock; Migration; Employment; Total factor productivity; Estimation techniques; Middle East
Cover Departmental Papers
Regional Spillovers from the Venezuelan Crisis: Migration Flows and Their Impact on Latin America and the Caribbean
Mr. Jorge A Alvarez
,
Mr. Marco Arena
,
Alain Brousseau
,
Mr. Hamid Faruqee
,
Emilio William Fernandez Corugedo
,
Mr. Jaime Guajardo
,
Gerardo Peraza
, and
Juan Yepez
As a new migration crisis is unfolding in Europe because of the war in Ukraine, the purpose of this paper is to also highlight the ongoing migration crisis in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) due to Venezuela’s economic collapse. The stock of Venezuelan migrants reached 5 million in 2019, most of which had settled in other LAC countries. Following a temporary halt during the pandemic, migration from Venezuela has resumed, with the stock of migrants reaching 6.1 million in 2021. These migration flows are expected to continue in the coming years, which can strain public services and labor markets in the recipient economies in LAC. This Departmental Paper focuses on migration spillovers from the Venezuelan economic and social crisis. It sheds light on how migration can raise GDP growth and affect fiscal and external positions in host countries. It also discusses policy options, including greater support for education and integration into the workforce, which could help migrants find jobs to match their skills and help raise growth prospects in recipient countries.
Keywords:
Migration labor market unemployment spillover effects; Migration flow; migration flow; Venezuela crisis; Migration inflow; Migration spillover; policy action; Venezuelan migrant; Migration; Labor markets; Human capital; Caribbean; Global; South America; Central America
Cover IMF Working Papers
Private Savings and COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa
Mr. Boileau Loko
,
Nelie Nembot
, and
Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro
The paper reexamines the main private savings determinants in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), followed by an analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic impact on private savings in SSA and other country groupings. Using an unbalanced panel data from 1983−2021 for 31 SSA economies, the paper finds that real per capita economic growth remains a key historical determinant of private savings in the region. In contrast with other regions, private saving rates have not increased during COVID-19 in SSA. Instead, COVID-19 deaths in our estimations are significantly associated with a decline in private savings in SSA. Robustness checks and a descriptive analysis of household surveys during the pandemic corroborate those results.
Keywords:
Private Savings; Sub-Saharan Africa; COVID-19; Economic Growth; savings determinants in SSA; pandemic impact; preventive measure; SSA economy; robustness check; Income; Estimation techniques; Middle East; North Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Measuring Quarterly Economic Growth from Outer Space
Robert C. M. Beyer
,
Yingyao Hu
, and
Jiaxiong Yao
This paper presents a novel framework to estimate the elasticity between nighttime lights and quarterly economic activity. The relationship is identified by accounting for varying degrees of measurement errors in nighttime light data across countries. The estimated elasticity is 1.55 for emerging markets and developing economies, ranging from 1.36 to 1.81 across country groups and robust to different model specifications. The paper uses a light-adjusted measure of quarterly economic activity to show that higher levels of development, statistical capacity, and voice and accountability are associated with more precise national accounts data. The elasticity allows quantification of subnational economic impacts. During the COVID-19 pandemic, regions with higher levels of development and population density experienced larger declines in economic activity.
Keywords:
Nighttime lights; economic measurement; quarterly GDP; national accounts; COVID-19.; GDP growth; Summary statistics; light growth; growth measure; GDP measure; COVID-19; GDP measurement; Vector autoregression; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Effects of COVID-19 Vaccines on Economic Activity
Mr. Pragyan Deb
,
Davide Furceri
,
Daniel Jimenez
,
Siddharth Kothari
,
Mr. Jonathan David Ostry
, and
Nour Tawk
This paper empirically examines the economic effects of COVID-19 vaccine rollouts using a cross-country daily database of vaccinations and high frequency indicators of economic activity—nitrogen dioxide (NO2) emissions, carbon monoxide (CO) emissions, and Google mobility indices—for a sample of 46 countries over the period December 16, 2020 to June 20, 2021. Using surprises in vaccines administered, we find that an unexpected increase in vaccination per capita is associated with a significant increase in economic activity. We also find evidence for non-linear effects of vaccines, with the marginal economic benefits being larger when vaccination rates are higher. Country-specific conditions play an important role, with lower economic gains if strict containment measures are in place or if the country is experiencing a severe outbreak. Finally, the results provide evidence of spillovers across borders, highlighting the importance of equitable access to vaccines across nations.
Keywords:
COVID-19; pandemics; vaccinations; containment measures.; vaccine rollout; vaccination rate; copyright Page; vaccine surprise; containment measure; COVID-19; Global
Cover Policy Papers
2021 Comprehensive Surveillance Review— Background Paper on The Surveillance Priority Ensuring Economic Sustainability
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Ensuring economic sustainability is key to achieving the IMF’s surveillance mandate of maintaining present and prospective balance of payments and domestic stability, assuring orderly exchange arrangements, and promoting a stable system of exchange rates. A good understanding of issues related to economic sustainability is thus essential for the IMF to provide effective surveillance and policy advice, while it requires a broad perspective and a long time horizon. With respect to the IMF’s surveillance mandate, the principle of macro-criticality, which guides the IMF’s engagement with its members, is sufficiently flexible and broad, allowing the IMF to cover issues related to economic sustainability. At the same time, given the wide range of issues that are related to economic sustainability, IMF surveillance needs to be selective and focused, with the choice of issues made on a case-by-case basis, considering country circumstances. It also needs to leverage the expertise of other institutions when necessary. The IMF and other institutions have advanced work to enhance analytical frameworks and indicators related to economic sustainability, and this should continue.
Keywords:
IMF surveillance; surveillance mandate; transparency policy; IMF's engagement; policy advice; Income inequality; Climate change; Income; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
COVID-19 and Emerging Markets: An Epidemiological Model with International Production Networks and Capital Flows
Cem Cakmakli
,
Selva Demiralp
,
Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan
,
Sevcan Yesiltas
, and
Muhammed A. Yildirim
We quantify the macroeconomic effects of COVID-19 for a small open economy by calibrating a SIR-multi-sector-macro model. We measure sectoral supply shocks utilizing teleworking and physical job proximity, and demand shocks with credit card purchases. Both shocks are also affected from changing infection rates under different lockdown scenarios. Being an open economy amplifies the economic costs through two main channels. First, the demand shock has domestic and external components. Second, the initial shock is magnified due to domestic and international input-output linkages.
Keywords:
WP; stimulus package; open economy; inflation rate; COVID-19; Debt Monetisation; External Finance; SIR; Input-Output Tables; Emerging Markets; economic cost; monetary policy; foreign currency; debt monetization; supply and demand; total output; utility function; swap line; Demand elasticity; Global; closed economy; Unconventional monetary policies
Cover IMF Working Papers
Reexamining the National Savings-Investment Nexus Across Time and Countries
Mr. Antonio David
,
Carlos Goncalves
, and
Alejandro M. Werner
Domestic savings and investment are positively correlated across countries and through time, as Feldstein-Horioka (FH) unveiled 40 years ago. We argue that an interpretation of this correlation based on market failures is more consistent with data patterns than alternative hypotheses. Moreover, resorting to instrumental variables techniques, we conclude that the relationship is causal: an exogenous rise in savings increases investment. This result holds in the full sample of countries and for emerging and developing economies, but there is evidence that the positive association in advanced economies is due to endogeneity bias. The core of our identification strategy relies on the idea that population age structure influences savings, but not total investment directly. Specifically, we use the share of adults in the [35-49] years of age bracket as an instrument for savings. Our estimates pass weak-instruments robust inference.
Keywords:
WP; saving; investment; investment rate; savings-investment correlation; Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle; Investment; Savings; Causality; savings rate; labor-saving technology; saving variable; Domestic savings; Capital account; Estimation techniques; Income; Global; population share affect investment