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Social Science > Demography

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 366 items for :

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  • IMF Staff Country Reports x
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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
El Salvador: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
copyright page; No. 25/68; legal tender status; valuation profits; dollar-Bitcoin conversion; Financial inclusion; Currencies; Digital financial services; Central America; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Korea: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper examines the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) in Korea. As a leading innovator and semiconductor producer, Korea is highly exposed to AI. Korea is widely recognized as a leading technology innovator and consistently ranks high on various global innovation indexes. AI usage is rising in Korean firms, notably among large, young, and tech-related firms. Empirical analysis confirms the significant role of firm size, age, and complementary assets in driving AI adoption. AI exposure tends to be higher for high-income groups, but potential gains from AI also increase with income. AI adoption leads to significant output and productivity gains, especially in Scenario 3 featuring both high labor complementarity and high overall productivity. Active and ongoing policy efforts are being made to promote AI adoption while managing potential risks. High labor market duality poses significant challenges for workers to switch jobs, especially for elderly groups. The authorities have taken proactive steps to advance AI development and adoption, expand the AI talent pool, and establish regulations to manage associated risks.
Keywords:
Korea export share; profitability regression; AI adoption; E. AI preparedness; AI usage; Exports; Productivity; Trade tensions; Competition; Global; North America
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
People’s Republic of China—Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: 2024 Article IV Consultation Discussions-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR)’s economy is on a path of gradual but uneven recovery following three years of recession since 2019. The removal of coronavirus disease (COVID)-related restrictions in early 2023 resulted in a strong rebound in domestic demand and inbound tourism in 2023H1, and decline in unemployment rate to historical lows. The outlook is subject to high uncertainty, with the balance of risks tilted to the downside. Key downside risks include a sharper-than-expected slowdown in Mainland China due to escalation of trade tensions or a deeper and more protracted adjustment in the property market. Tighter-for-longer monetary policy in the United States, rising geoeconomic fragmentation pressures, and increased regional competition could also weigh on growth. Continued efforts are needed to address long-term challenges posed by climate change. In order to mitigate the risk of falling short of emissions reduction targets, the authorities should prioritize regional collaboration with Mainland China to develop zero-carbon energy and improve energy efficiency in aging and poorly maintained buildings.
Keywords:
consultation discussion; exchange regime; surveillance topic; rate of HK; surveillance effort; Housing; Housing prices; Climate finance; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
People’s Republic of China—Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper focuses on the fiscal implications of population aging for Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR). Hong Kong SAR’s significant demographic pressures will create fiscal challenges for the authorities. Fiscal expenditure pressures from population aging have already been rising rapidly for over a decade and are expected to increase significantly in coming years, even without factoring in the cost of needed improvements to the social security system. Needed improvements to the social security system would further increase fiscal costs. An aging population is also going to adversely affect the economy’s potential output growth and fiscal revenue, with the effect larger in a scenario where the working age population shrinks. Revenue-boosting tax reforms and other fiscal measures will be needed to provide a stable funding base for Hong Kong SAR’s high-quality development into the medium term. Tax reforms should be designed to take into account the impact on the business environment, including from tax competitiveness vis-a-vis other financial centers.
Keywords:
C. Hong Kong SAR; D. Policy discussion; C. Policy implication; D. mainland Chinese firm; debt-servicing capacity; Climate change; Greenhouse gas emissions; Aging; Climate finance; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Malta: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
2024 Selected Issues
Keywords:
gender income gap; labor market exposure; AI Preparedness; AI technology; use of artificial intelligence; Gender inequality; Women; Income inequality; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Poland: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes various factors that show potential growth in Poland. Poland has achieved substantial economic convergence within the EU. Labor productivity growth was robust until the disruptions from coronavirus disease. Poland’s economic convergence within the EU is expected to continue albeit at a slower pace. Using a production function approach, IMF now estimates that Poland’s potential growth to remain solid, but gradually decline, reaching 2.7 percent by 2029. Moving forward, the labor supply is expected to comprise a substantial drag on potential output. Policies should focus on deepening capital, facilitating resource reallocation, supporting labor supply, and enhancing innovation capacity. Strengthening vocational training and skill-matching could improve skills and allocative efficiency. Raising labor force participation among older cohorts should be complemented by enhancing adult learning. Poland has closed on Europe’s productivity frontier in most sectors. In order to sustain growth, it will need to transition from technology adoption. Government incentives and the financial system should be geared toward creating a conducive environment for R&D and other innovation activities, including by promoting private equity and venture capital.
Keywords:
D. pension inequity; convergence success; firm investment trend; B. pension projection; E. pension funds' role; pension benefit; Pension spending; Pensions; Productivity; Aging; Total factor productivity; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Poland: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Poland
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that the Polish economy is recovering, driven by a rebound in domestic demand. Private consumption growth is being driven by rising nominal and real wages, and lower inflation; still, inflation remains well above target against a tight labor market. The outlook is positive, supported by the absorption of Next Generation EU (NGEU) funds, with growth expected to accelerate further in 2025–2026. Absent surprises, inflation should peak before mid-2025, and then moderate to slightly above the upper end of the central bank’s target range by end-2025. Medium-term growth is expected to moderate as the impact of NGEU funds absorption unwinds. Nevertheless, there is substantial uncertainty with risks tilted to the downside for growth and upside for inflation. The overarching objective is to balance the mix of monetary and fiscal policy and preserve debt sustainability, while strengthening the economy to face longer term challenges. Growth engines that delivered past success in convergence to EU income levels are threatened by diminishing cost-competitiveness, population aging, limited capital deepening, and the climate transition, on top of a subdued growth outlook in the main trading partners.
Keywords:
currency of Poland; IMF staff calculation; consultation cycle; holdings of SDR; Policy recommendation; Inflation; Credit; Labor markets; Aging; Europe; Central and Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Philippines: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper focuses on potential growth and demographic dividend in Philippines. Output and employment in the Philippines were severely impacted by the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. While the Philippines recovered strongly after the pandemic, there is some evidence of scarring in output, and labor productivity remains below pre-pandemic trends. A comparison between the Philippines and peer countries along structural areas key to supporting higher growth can inform reform efforts to support higher growth. Strengthening anti-corruption efforts, while enhancing the legal system, regulatory quality, and improving the rule of law would support business certainty. At a structural level, the Philippines is on the cusp of a demographic transition but must close important structural gaps to take advantage of this potential dividend and boost growth. Under current policy settings, potential growth projections are estimated to be between 6.0–6.3 percent in the medium term. An upside scenario, which assumes ambitious and well-sequenced structural reforms, shows that growth could reach 7.0–7.5 percent over a longer time horizon.
Keywords:
supply and demand inflation decomposition; supply and demand food inflation decomposition; inflation volatility; inflation expectation; services inflation decomposition; supply and demand goods inflation decomposition; Inflation; Total factor productivity; Human capital; Labor productivity; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Benin: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper presents stylized facts on Benin’s ongoing economic transformation, and analyzes the country’s new eco-system. A recent IMF paper explores conditions under which the country’s industrial policy could meet its intended goals while avoiding unintended economic distortions down the road. While economic diversification is found to be associated with higher economic growth, evidence on the causal impact of industrial policies is hard to establish. While empirical evidence suggests that Benin’s reliance on traditional sectors, notably the Port of Cotonou, is moderating, economic diversification remains limited. The government embarked on industrial policy with the transformation of local commodities as main engine, including via the launching of a Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in 2020. It is recommending that the authorities should pursue efforts to ensure transparency in the selection of SEZ-related incentives. Intra-regional trade integration holds significant potential for Benin and could support economic diversification. Ongoing post-electoral policy shifts in Nigeria and formalization underway of economic ties between both nations, if permanent, would curb rent-seeking in Benin.
Keywords:
demographics dividend; B. addressing Internet accessibility; infrastructure investment; Beninese government; completion rate; Digitalization; Exports; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; West Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Sierra Leone: Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper highlights Sierra Leone’s Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy. The Government of Sierra Leone (GoSL) has launched a new Medium-Term National Development Plan (MTNDP). Crucial lessons have been learned in the implementation of the previous plan 2019-2023 that are important for the current acceleration and transformative plan to deliver a resilient and robust economy for Sierra Leone by 2030. Accordingly, five national goals for 2030 have been identified to accelerate efforts toward achieving the country’s vision of becoming an inclusive and green middle-income country by 2039. One of the goals is to create 500,000 jobs for the youth (with at least a 30% representation of women), including skilled and unskilled, long term, as well as seasonal jobs across all sectors by 2030 (directly related to Big 5.3). While the agriculture industry experienced modest growth, its reliance on the domestic market has impeded the ability to expand agricultural exports.
Keywords:
government ministry; Medium-Term National Development Plan; government of Sierra Leone; Sierra Leone economy; Development secretary Mr. Peter Sam-Kpakra; Public sector; Global; Africa; West Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa