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Social Science > Demography

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 335 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • IMF Working Papers x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Prometheus Unbound: What Makes Fintech Grow?
Serhan Cevik
The rise of financial technologies—fintech—could have transformative effects on the financial landscape, expanding the reach of services beyond the confines of geography and creating new competitive sources of finance for households and firms. But what makes fintech grow? Why do some countries have more financial innovation than others? In this paper, I use a comprehensive dataset to investigate the emergence and spread of fintech in a diverse panel of 98 countries over the period 2012–2020. This empirical analysis helps ascertain economic, demographic, technological and institutional factors that enable the development of fintech. The magnitude and statistical significance of these factors vary according to the type of fintech instrument and the level of economic development (advanced economies vs. developing countries). Finally, these findings reveal that policies and structural reforms can help promote financial innovation and cultivate fintech ventures—particularly by strengthening technological and institutional infrastructures and reducing cybersecurity threats.
Keywords:
Fintech; financial innovation; technological change; cybersecurity threat; fintech venture; copyright page; government stability foster fintech growth; fintech transaction; Digital financial services; Financial sector development; Population growth; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Government Debt and Growth: The Role of R&D
Can Sever
Economic growth in the advanced economies (AEs) has been slowing down since the early 2000s, while government debt ratios have been rising. The recent surge in debt at the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic has further intensified concerns about these phenomena. This paper aims to offer insight into the high-debt low-growth environment in AEs by exploring a causal link from government debt to future growth, specifically through the impact of debt on R&D activities. Using data from manufacturing industries since the 1980s, it shows that (i) government debt leads to a decline in growth, particularly in R&D-intensive industries; (ii) the differential effect of government debt on these industries is persistent; and (iii) more developed or open financial systems tend to mitigate this negative impact. These findings contribute to our understanding of the relationship between government debt and growth in AEs, given the role of technological progress and innovation in economic growth.
Keywords:
Government debt; fiscal policy; economic growth; R&D; innovation; financial development; economic growth in the advanced economies; R&D activity; impact of debt; debt level; affect tax dynamics; Financial sector development; Manufacturing; Productivity; Aging; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Social Security Reforms, Retirement and Sectoral Decisions
Bruno R. Delalibera
,
Pedro Cavalcanti Ferreira
, and
Rafael Machado Parente
In many countries, the regulations governing pension systems, hiring procedures, and job contracts differ between the public and private sectors. Public sector employees tend to have longer tenures and higher wages compared to workers in the private sector. As such, social security reforms can affect both retirement decisions and sectoral choices. We study the effects of social security reforms on retirement and sectoral behavior in an economy with multiple pension systems. We develop a general equilibrium life-cycle model with heterogeneous agents, three sectors - private formal, private informal and public - and endogenous retirement. We quantitatively assess the long-run effects of reforms being discussed and implemented around the world. Among them, we study the unification of pension systems and increasing the minimum retirement age. We calibrate our model to Brazil, where several of the retirement conditions resemble those of other countries. We find that these reforms lower the likelihood of individuals to apply to a public job and increase the profile of savings over the life cycle. In the long run, these reforms lead to higher output and capital, reduced informality, and average welfare gains. They also drastically reduce the social security deficit.
Keywords:
Social security reform; Public employment; Public deficit; Informality; reform experiment; retirement condition; social security deficit; retirement decision; Retirement; Aging; Public sector; East Asia; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Labor Market Decisions of Older Workers in Ageing Economies: Evidence from Spain and the UK
Rodrigo Barrela
,
Pragyan Deb
,
Gloria Li
, and
Carlo Pizzinelli
Faced with fiscal pressures and labor shortages from ageing populations, Advanced Economies need to ease obstacles to longer working lives. In this paper, we discuss recent developments in employment and activity of workers aged 55 and above in Spain and the UK—two countries that differ widely on historical and recent employment rate patterns as well as institutional settings. We then explore themes related to their labor market decisions, including flows into and out of the labor force, health, working arrangements, and unemployment benefits systems. The differences and commonalities between the two countries highlight the diversity of obstacles to longer working lives and the need for policies to act upon all of them. Policy priorities include addressing worsening health, improving accessibility for older workers with physical limitations, providing incentives to return to employment for the long-term unemployed, and greater flexibility in hours and working arrangments for those who have family caring duties or want to gradually transition out of work.
Keywords:
Ageing; Older Workers; Retirement; Labor Force Participation; policy priority; labor market decision; IMF working paper 2025/30; older worker; job search; early retirement; Aging; Labor markets
Cover IMF Working Papers
Understanding Agricultural Output in Mozambique: Using remote sensing to initiate a discussion on development
Kelsee Bratley
and
Alexis Meyer-Cirkel
This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the agricultural land coverage in Mozambique by harnessing advanced remote sensing technologies and draws on successful agricultural development examples to propose strategic pathways for Mozambique. The study leverages Sentinel-2 satellite imagery coupled with a machine learning algorithm to accurately map and assess the country's agricultural land, revealing that agriculture accounts for only 12 percent of Mozambique's land area. By examining the agricultural transformation or “green revolution” that some countries have experienced, it is possible to distill regularities and necessary conditions, which can then be compared to the state-of-affairs in Mozambique. This study not only offers a model of how emerging technologies like remote sensing can inform agricultural state of affairs, it also provides important insights into which concrete bottlenecks are likely to be holding back Mozambique’s agricultural development.
Keywords:
Mozambique; agricultural development; remote sensing; greenrevolution; poverty alleviation; remote sensing technology; satellite imagery; accuracy assessment; agricultural land usage; area estimation; Agricultural sector; Agricultural commodities; Agricultural production; Food security; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Drivers and Effects of Residence and Citizenship by Investment
Sofronis Clerides
,
Maria Delgado Coelho
,
Alexander D Klemm
, and
Christos Kotsogiannis
This paper discusses under what circumstances residence and citizenship by investment (RBI or CBI) schemes could be used by individuals engaging in tax avoidance or evasion. It describes the market for CBI and RBI and how features of the offered programs might reveal the underlying motivations of governments offering them. The paper then presents empirical evidence on the conditions under which such schemes are offered. Finally, the paper estimates the impact of such schemes on investment, house prices, and public revenues.
Keywords:
Residence by Investment; Citizenship by Investment; Tax Evasion.; house price growth; CRBI scheme; investment requirement; CRBI program; CRBI data; CBI program; Housing prices; Personal income tax; Tax evasion; Inflation; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Shifting Perceptions: Unpacking Public Support for Immigrant Workers Integration in the Labor Market
Silvia Albrizio
,
Hippolyte W. Balima
,
Bertrand Gruss
,
Eric Huang
, and
Colombe Ladreit
This paper investigates public perceptions and support for policies aimed at integrating immigrant workers into domestic labor markets. Through large-scale surveys involving 6,300 respondents from Canada, Italy, and the United Kingdom, we provide new insights into attitudes toward migrant integration policies and the impact of different information provisions on belief updating. We identify three key factors that shape policy support: pre-existing stereotypes about immigrants, awareness of labor market integration policies for migrants, and, most critically, the perceived economic and social impact of these policies. Our findings reveal that providing information about the economic effects of integrating immigrants in the labor market significantly alters perceptions and increases support for these policies. Notably, explanations of the economic mechanisms underlying these policies are more effective than simply presenting policy effects or real-life stories of integration challenges. The survey also identifies the primary barriers to policy support, with fairness considerations toward unemployed native workers emerging as the top concern. It reveals that addressing individuals’ specific concerns through tailored mitigation measures can enhance support for policies aimed at better integration migrants. Nevertheless, a significant challenge remains in overcoming mistrust in the government’s commitment and ability to effectively implement these policies and accompanying measures.
Keywords:
Labor market integration policies; Survey; Perceptions; Immigration; Online experiment; Political Economy; integration policy; shape policy support; policy effect; mitigation policy; support variable; integration migrant; Migration; Labor markets; Labor market policy; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Parametric Pension Reform Options in Korea
Daniel Baksa
,
Boele Bonthuis
,
Si Guo
, and
Zsuzsa Munkacsi
Population aging in Korea will pose substantial challenges to the financial sustainability of its public pension system. Under current policies and plausible assumptions, public pension spending can increase by as much as 4 percent of GDP during 2020-70, while contribution revenue will largely stay constant. This expected rise in public pension spending mainly reflects the increase in the old-age dependency ratio (and therefore the number of pension recipients), the deceleration in GDP growth in response to demographic changes, and, to a lesser extent, the maturing of the National Pension Scheme. Three pension policies are considered to stabilize the public debt- to-GDP ratio: a retirement age increase, higher social security contributions, and a lower pension replacement rate, and a combination of all three. The adjustments need to be large to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio if each policy lever is used in isolation. A combination of smaller adjustments of multiple parameters yields better results.
Keywords:
Aging; pensions; overlapping generations model; parametric pension reform option; policy lever; to-GDP ratio; pension policy; replacement rate; Pension spending; Retirement; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Migration into the EU: Stocktaking of Recent Developments and Macroeconomic Implications
Francesca Caselli
,
Huidan Huidan Lin
,
Frederik G Toscani
, and
Jiaxiong Yao
Against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, immigration into the European Union (EU) reached a historical high in 2022 and stayed significantly above pre-pandemic levels in 2023. The recent migration has helped accommodate strong labor demand, with around two-thirds of jobs created between 2019 and 2023 filled by non-EU citizens, while unemployment of EU citizens remained at historical lows. Ukrainian refugees also appear to have been absorbed into the labor market faster than previous waves of refugees in many countries. The stronger-than-expected net migration over 2020-23 into the euro area (of around 2 million workers) is estimated to push up potential output by around 0.5 percent by 2030—slightly less than half the euro area’s annual potential GDP growth at that time—even if immigrants are assumed to be 20 percent less productive than natives. This highlights the important role immigration can play in attenuating the effects of the Europe’s challenging demographic outlook. On the flipside, the large inflow had initial fiscal costs and likely led to some congestion of local public services such as schooling. Policy efforts should thus seek to continue to integrate migrants into the labor force while making sure that the supply of public services and amenities (including at the local level) keeps up with the population increase.
Keywords:
Migration; Labor Markets; European Union; migration perception; net migration; integration policy; EU citizen; migration development; Labor shortages; Aging; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Navigating Minefields and Headwinds: National Security, Demographic Shifts, Climate Change and Fiscal Policy in Lithuania
Serhan Cevik
Lithuania’s immediate fiscal challenges are national security and higher costs of borrowing, but fiscal prospects are further exacerbated by long-term pressures stemming from climate change and a shrinking and aging population. The country has experienced a rapidly decreasing population—from 3.7 million in 1991 to 2.8 million in 2023—and its old-age dependency ratio is consequently expected to increase from 33 percent in 2023 to 53.4 percent by 2050. The resulting long-term spending pressures are projected to amount to as much as 11.2 percent of GDP, which is about 30 percent of the current level of spending. Debt sustainability concerns would not allow financing additional spending with more debt. Hence, a comprehensive strategy will help address these long-term fiscal challenges, including tax policy changes to raise additional revenue while primarily reducing expenditure needs through pension and healthcare reforms.
Keywords:
Military spending; interest rates; climate change; demographics; pension; healthcare; tax policy; fiscal sustainability; Lithuania; debt sustainability concern; dependency ratio; headwinds national security; spending pressure; old-age dependency ratio; Aging; Pension spending; Global; Europe