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Social Science > Demography

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Costa Rica: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
labor market characteristic; refugees in Costa rica; estimation uncertainty; neutral real interest rate; card payment fee; Real interest rates; Migration; Labor markets; Social assistance spending; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Flattening the Curve and the Flight of the Rich: Pandemic-Induced Shifts in US and European Housing Markets
Nina Biljanovska and Giovanni Dell'Ariccia
The pattern of increasing suburban house prices relative to urban centers initiated during the pandemic continues to hold across the top 30 US metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). In contrast, European countries such as Denmark, France, and the United Kingdom did not experience a similar shift in valuations. We posit and find supporting evidence that these divergent patterns partially due to differences in the characteristics of suburban areas, particularly in terms of household income and property sizes; with European suburbs being relatively poorer and characterized by smaller housing units. We show that, in the US, MSAs with suburban features more akin to those in European cities generally experienced little to no increase in suburban housing prices compared to their urban centers. Finally, our findings indicate that migration patterns of the high-income population might have partially influenced the urban-suburban revaluation in the US.
Keywords:
Property prices; House price gradient; City structure; High-income population mobility; population mobility; price gradient; housing unit; income gap; Housing prices; Income; Real estate prices; Inflation; Europe
Cover Selected Issues Papers
The Fiscal Cost of Aging in Belgium: Pensions and Healthcare
Mr. Jean-Jacques Hallaert
Belgium faces a fiscal consolidation challenge at a time when the fiscal cost of aging—primarily related to pension and health outlays—is mounting. Pension spending will increase relatively fast unless a combination of measures related to pension generosity and retirement eligibility are put in place. Potential efficiency gains are large in the health sector and could absorb part of the fiscal and reorganization costs related to an aging population.
Keywords:
Belgium; Aging; Fiscal cost of aging; Pensions; Healthcare; reorganization cost; cost of aging; cost pressure; fiscal cost; healthcare cost; Pension spending; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Macroeconomic Effects of Large Immigration Waves
Philipp Engler, Ms. Margaux MacDonald, Mr. Roberto Piazza, and Galen Sher
We propose a novel approach to measure the dynamic macroeconomic effects of immigration on the destination country, combining the analysis of episodes of large immigration waves with instrumental variables techniques. We distinguish the impact of immigration shocks in OECD countries from that of refugee immigration in emerging and developing economies. In OECD, large immigration waves raise domestic output and productivity in both the short and the medium term, pointing to significant dynamic gains for the host economy. We find no evidence of negative effects on aggregate employment of the native-born population. In contrast, our analysis of large refugee flows into emerging and developing countries does not find clear evidence of macroeconomic effects on the host country, a conclusion in line with a growing body of evidence that refugee immigrants are at disadvantage compared to other type of immigrants.
Keywords:
Immigration; productivity; dynamic gains; immigration wave; immigration shock; immigration episode; OECD migration flow data; migration shock; Migration; Employment; Total factor productivity; Estimation techniques; Middle East
Cover IMF How To Notes
How to Assess Spending Needs of the Sustainable Development Goals: The Third Edition of the IMF SDG Costing Tool
Piergiorgio M Carapella, Ms. Tewodaj Mogues, Julieth C Pico-Mejia, and Mauricio Soto
This note provides a technical overview and description of the 3rd edition of the IMF SDG costing tool that estimates the additional spending needs to achieve a strong performance in selected SDGs for human capital development (health and education) and physical capital development (infrastructure), in particular, water and sanitation, electricity, and roads. The 3rd edition includes data and methodological updates to, but generally remains faithful to the original approach described in, Gaspar et al. (2019). Globally, additional spending needed to achieve a strong performance in the selected SDGs in 2030 amounts to US$3.0 trillion (3.4 percent of 2030 world GDP). Estimated at 16.1 percent of 2030 LIDC GDP, the average additional SDG cost of this income group is significantly higher than in EMEs, who face additional spending amounting to 4.8 percentage points of their GDP in 2030. In contrast to EMEs and LIDCs, the additional cost for AEs is low, under 0.2 percent of their 2030 GDP.
Keywords:
SDGs; Sustainable Development Goals; expenditure; spending needs; cost; health; education; water; sanitation; electricity; roads; SDG spending; edition SDG; desk estimate; costing tool; Sustainable Development Goals (SDG); Health care spending; Infrastructure; Global; Caribbean; Central Asia and the Caucasus; Middle East; North Africa
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Labor Force Participation in Romania
Florian Misch and Mr. Alexander Pitt
Labor force particiaption (LFP) in Romania is—at 66.8 percent in 2022—significantly lower than the EU average, especially among women and less educated people. With a declining working-age population, rasing LFP could yield signifcant benefits including by boosting long-term growth, mitigating the fiscal impact of an ageing society, and reducing inequality. Key policies to boost LFP include provision of affordabel high-quality childcare, and improving education standards.
Keywords:
Labor force participation; gender gap; demographics; IMF staff calculation; copyright page; rase LFP; policy implication; EU LFP level; Romania's LFP gender gap; Women; Aging; Western Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Cote d'Ivoire: Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The implementation of the 2012-2015 and 2016-2020 National Plans of Development Plan (NDP) allowed the country to make significant progress and consolidate economic growth, despite a global context marked by trade tensions, a drop in commodity prices and the COVID-19 pandemic.
Keywords:
Ivorian government; government plan; Ivorian authority; government's Social Program; medium-term development strategy; social action; Climate change; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Belgium: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
state government expenditure; health efficiency frontier; cost of aging; major spending category; healthcare expenditure; Aging; Pension spending; Pensions; Fiscal consolidation; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Romania: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
IMF staff calculation; energy mix; C. climate policy; policy pathway; EU LFP level; Romania team; Greenhouse gas emissions; Renewable energy; Women; Global; Western Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Climate and Cross-Border Migration
Paula Beltran and Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov
Our work is positioned at the intersection of migration and climate change—two key forces shaping the economic outlook of many countries. The analysis explores: (i) the relative importance of origincountry vs destination-country factors in explaining migration patterns; (ii) importance of climate disasters as driver of cross-border migration; and (iii) the importance of climate-driven migration on the overall impact of climate on macroeconomic outcomes. It arrives at the following main findings. First, both origin-country and destination-country contribute to explaining migration outflows from EMDEs, although only the global shocks seem important for advanced economies. Second, climate disasters are important for explaining the origincountry migration shocks in LICs and EMDEs, are especially relevant for smaller countries, and lead to migration of both genders, albeit relatively more for males out of LICs. Third, important portion of climate’s overall impact on economic outcomes—especially agricultural GDP, remittances, and inequality—is captured via climate-driven migration. Finally, higher investment in climate-resilient infrastructure can reduce the impact of climate on cross-border migration, and thereby, result in potentially important economic gains.
Keywords:
International Migration; Climate; Climate Disasters; climate disaster; migration outflow; origin-country migration shock; migration pattern; climate-driven migration; Migration; Natural disasters; Climate change; Global