Middle East and Central Asia > Somalia

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International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Economic activity has picked up in recent months, supported by a rebound in agriculture, though still affected by the lingering effects of two years of drought and recent severe flooding. The security situation remains challenging, with the government scaling up its military actions against the Al-Shabab terrorist group, amid the planned withdrawal of the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) by end-December 2024. Despite these significant challenges, the authorities remain committed to the reform effort, leveraging the benefits of the HIPC Completion Point achieved in December 2023.
Sidra Rehman and Laura Jaramillo
Do weather shocks worsen conflict around the world? To answer this question, this paper uses an innovative dataset created by using georeferencing to match weather and conflict data at the subregional level on a monthly frequency across 168 countries over 2013 to 2022.The empirical results show that higher temperature exacerbate conflict where it already exists. Estimations indicate that, in a high emissions scenario and all else equal, by 2060 conflict deaths as a share of the population for a median country facing conflict could increase by 12.3 percent due to rising temperatures. These findings underscore the importance of integrating climate resilience into peace and security efforts and designing climate adaptation policies that support conflict prevention and resolution.
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept., International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department, and International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
This paper provides an update of the adequacy of the resources of the Fund’s Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT) and the debt relief trusts. Demand for PRGT loans continued to exceed earlier projections. Total PRGT credit outstanding reached SDR 18.3 billion at end-2023, or three times the pre-pandemic average. PRGT fundraising targets under the 2021 two-stage funding strategy to support LICs during the pandemic and beyond were met. Work is underway to implement the pledges. Ensuring PRGT long-term sustainability is a priority, and balancing a level of PRGT lending that meets the demand from eligible countries while ensuring the long-term sustainability of the Trust will be taken up in the ongoing PRGT Review. The Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust (CCRT) remains severely underfunded, after providing debt relief to the IMF’s poorest and most vulnerable members during 2020–22. The Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative is nearly complete. Somalia reached its Completion Point under the HIPC Initiative in December 2023, while Sudan’s prospects for reaching its HIPC Completion Point remain uncertain owing to domestic developments.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
A technical assistance (TA) mission was conducted by the statistics department of the IMF in May 2023 to assist the Somalia National Bureau of Statistics (SNBS) with updating the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Preliminary consumer basket was created during the mission with expanded coverage, and the higher aggregate weights were calculated using the updated classification of individual consumption by purpose (COICOP 2018). Somali Integrated Household Budget Survey (SIHBS) 2022 was used as a main source for calculating preliminary CPI weights. The index compilation methodology was reviewed and recommendations for improvements were provided.