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Europe > Slovenia, Republic of

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  • Type: Journal Issue x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Cross-Country Linkages in Europe: A Global VAR Analysis
Ms. Yan M Sun
,
Mr. Frigyes F Heinz
, and
Giang Ho
This paper uses the Global VAR (GVAR) model proposed by Pesaran et al. (2004) to study cross-country linkages among euro area countries, other advanced European countries (including the Nordics, the UK, etc.), and the Central, Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) countries. An innovative feature of the paper is the use of combined trade and financial weights (based on BIS reporting banks’ external position data) to capture the very close trade and financial ties of the CESEE countries with the advanced Europe countries. The results show strong co-movements in output growth and interest rates but weaker linkages bewteen inflation and real credit growth within Europe. While the euro area is the dominant source of economic influences, there are also interesting subregional linkages, e.g. between the Nordic and the Baltic countries, and a small but notable impact of CESEE countries on the rest of the Europe.
Keywords:
WP; CESEE country; real GDP; Nordic country; country VAR; country sample; Spillover; Global VAR; regional model; macro-financial linkages; emerging Europe; VAR model; ith economy; growth rate; Credit; Vector autoregression; Inflation; Long term interest rates; Production growth; Baltics; Europe; Western Europe; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Monetary Policy in Croatia
Mr. Leo Bonato
and
Mr. Andreas Billmeier
Exchange rate targeting is considered the best policy option in dollarized economies when wages and prices are indexed to the exchange rate. Croatia is a highly dollarized economy, but empirical investigation conducted in this paper shows that exchange rate pass-through has been low after stabilization. This finding, which is robust to different methodologies (VAR, cointegration), would suggest that dollarization is mostly limited to financial assets and therefore that strict exchange rate targeting may not necessarily be the best option. However, policy implications are unclear due to the endogeneity of the pass-through to the policy regime.
Keywords:
WP; retail price index; Croatia; pass-through; VAR; inflation; distribution chain; cointegration; price level; exchange rate movement; time series; exchange rate appreciation; HWWA commodity price index; exchange rate shock; DM exchange rate; Exchange rates; Price indexes; Exchange rate adjustments; Vector autoregression