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Europe > Slovenia, Republic of

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Cover IMF Working Papers
The Re-Emerging Privilege of Euro Area Membership
Mr. Johannes Wiegand
When the euro was introduced in 1998, one objective was to create an alternative global reserve currency that would grant benefits to euro area countries similar to the U.S. dollar’s “exorbitant privliege”: i.e., a boost to the perceived quality of euro denominated assets that would increase demand for such assets and reduce euro area members’ funding costs. This paper uses risk perceptions as revelaed in investor surveys to extract a measure of privilege asscociated with euro membership, and traces its evolution over time. It finds that in the 2000s, euro area assets benefited indeed from a significant perceptions premium. While this premium disappeared in the wake of the euro crisis, it has recently returned, although at a reduced size. The paper also produces time-varying estimates of the weights that investors place on macro-economic fundmentals in their assessments of country risk. It finds that the weights of public debt, the current account and real growth increased considerably during the euro crisis, and that these shifts have remained in place even after the immediate financial stress subsided.
Keywords:
WP; euro; area membership; euro area; euro crisis; exorbitant privlege; investor perceptions; time dummy; investor perception; governance framework; Euro premium; euro adoption; area privilege; membership premium; Credit ratings; Unemployment rate; Currencies; Exchange rate arrangements; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Assessing Competitiveness Using Industry Unit Labor Costs: An Application to Slovakia
International Monetary Fund
Conceptual ambiguities and statistical weaknesses hamper the assessment of external competitiveness. The term competitiveness, while applied extensively, is often imprecisely defined, which can result in analytical errors and mistaken policy advice. Furthermore, aggregate statistical measures of competitiveness in terms of exchange rate misalignment can be biased. To address these issues, this paper makes two contributions. First, it clarifies the external competitiveness concept, highlighting the dichotomy between productivity-driven long-run growth and short-run deviations from the underlying growth trajectory, which can be related to exchange rate misalignment. Second, it develops a disaggregated statistical approach for examining competitiveness based on unit labor costs at the three digit industry level in a group of comparable countries. The case of Slovakia is used to illustrate these concepts, but the analytical insights have general application.
Keywords:
WP; Slovakia; cost; export share; competitiveness; unit labor cost; exchange rate; price level; paper estimates unit labor cost norm; disaggregated ULC; ULC dev.; industry unit labor cost; ULC relative; Competition; Exchange rates; Productivity; Global competitiveness; Export performance; Global
Cover Policy Papers
2011 Triennial Surveillance Review - External Report on Interviews with Country Authorities
International Monetary Fund
Report prepared by Jack Boorman, Former Director of the Policy Development and Review Department and Teresa Ter-Minassian, former Director of the Fiscal Affairs Department at the IMF: This report summarizes the views of a representative sample of country authorities on IMF surveillance.
Keywords:
PP; Teresa Ter-Minassian; body; Fund; authority; G20 industrial nations; a number of country representative; a number of authority; fund staff; member government; country category; fund advice; country representative; countries' authorities; policy challenge; government's decision; Early warning systems; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Financial sector; Exchange rates; Exchange rate policy; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Borrowing Agreement with the Bank of Slovenia
International Monetary Fund
In light of the multilateral effort to ensure the adequacy of the financial resources available to the International Monetary Fund (the “Fund”), and with a view to supporting the Fund’s ability to provide timely and effective balance of payments assistance to its members, the Bank of Slovenia agrees to lend to the Fund an SDR-denominated amount up to the equivalent of EUR 280 million, on the terms and conditions set out in this paper.
Keywords:
PP; fund; agreement; amount; SDR; fund member; indebtedness to the Bank of Slovenia; fund's indebtedness; Interest payments; Freely usable currencies; Exchange rate arrangements
Cover IMF Working Papers
Sustainable Real Exchange Rates in the New Eu Member States: What Did the Great Recession Change?
Ms. Katerina Smídková
,
Jan Babecky
, and
Mr. Ales Bulir
The Great Recession affected export and import patterns in our sample countries, and these changes, coupled with a more volatile external environment, have profound impact on our estimates of real exchange rate misalignments and projections of sustainable real exchange rates. We find that real misalignments in several countries with pegged exchange rates and excessive external liabilities widened relative to earlier estimates. While countries with balanced net trade positions are expected to continue to experience appreciation during 2010-2014, several currencies are likely to require real depreciation to maintain sustainable net external debt. Our estimates point to somewhat larger disequilibria than those of IMF country teams, however, any estimates of equilibrium exchange rates are subject to sizable uncertainty.
Keywords:
WP; country-specific FDI elasticity; FDI inflow; Foreign direct investment; new EU member states; sustainable exchange rates; debt target; SRER estimate; IMF team; FDI elasticity; SRER projection; computed SRER interval; elasticity of export; nontradable-sector FDI; Real exchange rates; Trade balance; Exports; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bosnia and Herzegovina: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper for Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) reports that GDP per capita in BiH is similar to that in neighboring Balkan countries. BiH risks are falling behind rather than catching up with other transition economies in terms of its economic development. This could delay the process of convergence to and integration with the European Union, including its ambitions to eventually adopt the euro. Accelerated structural reforms and macroeconomic stability remain key to achieving higher and sustained growth rates.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; current account; Bosnia-Herzegovina; export; exchange rate; export growth; inflation performance; BiH's inflation figure; BiH risk; rising prices; growth dynamics; CA gap; BIH's inflation; Inflation; Exports; Real exchange rates; Export performance; Consumer price indexes; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Capital Account Liberalization, Capital Flow Patterns, and Policy Responses in the EU's New Member States
Ms. Zsofia Arvai
This paper discusses the experience of the EU's eight new member countries (EU8) between 1995 and 2003 when the bulk of capital account liberalization took place, focusing on interest-rate-sensitive portfolio flows and financial flows. It takes stock of the lessons from capital flow patterns to draw policy conclusions. There were two distinct groups in terms of the speed of capital account liberalization: rapid liberalizers and cautious liberalizers. The speed of disinflation and the level of public debt were major determinants of the size of interest-rate-sensitive portfolio inflows. Monetary and exchange rate policies were the main instruments used to react to large interest-sensitive inflows, whereas fiscal tightening was seldom used as a direct reaction to inflows.
Keywords:
WP; monetary policy; portfolio inflow; interest rate differential; central bank; debt management; EU accession; capital flows; capital account liberalization; transition country; transmission mechanism; liberalization strategy; candidate country; country authorities' agenda; EU candidate country; market share; country's liberalization strategy; government securities market; Central European country; Capital account; Capital inflows; Baltics
Cover Euro Adoption in Central and Eastern Europe
Euro Adoption in Central and Eastern Europe
Opportunities and Challenges
Susan M Schadler

Abstract

Eight central and eastern European countries--the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovak Republic, and Slovenia--officially joined the European Union (EU) in May 2004. This auspicious milestone marked the beginning of the next major step for these countries in their move toward full integration with the EU-adoption of the euro. Seeking to consider the opportunities and challenges of euro adoption, the papers in this volume--by a noted group of country officials, academics, representatives of international institutions, and market participants-offer insight on the various dimensions of euro adoption in these eight new EU members--how they should prepare, whether an early move is optimal, and what pitfalls may occur along the way.

Keywords:
SEM; euro; exchange rate; country; CEE country; ERM II; EMU economy; acceding country; ECB paper; Exchange rates; Inflation; Exchange rate arrangements; Monetary unions; Exchange rate stability; Central and Eastern Europe; Europe; Baltics; Western Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Romania: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper for Romania reports that the practice of nonpayment and arrears accumulation has been widespread in Romania. Managers of enterprises that remain in the pipeline for privatization for long periods of time have little incentive to reduce arrears. The state contributed to growth of arrears by accepting nonmonetary tax and utility payments, using tax offsets in procurement, and tolerating payment arrears. These practices have been prevalent at all levels of state and local government, as well as state utility companies.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; interest rate; rate; producer price inflation; interest rate pass-through; market rate; utility company arrears; impulse response; inflation expectation; B. inflation dynamics; Slovak coefficient; Inflation; Central bank policy rate; Arrears; Producer prices; Exchange rates; Africa; Central and Eastern Europe; Baltics
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Slovenia: Staff Report for the 2004 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund
This 2004 Article IV Consultation highlights that domestic demand in Slovenia rebounded strongly in 2003 after three anemic years. All components of domestic demand strengthened appreciably, fueled by declines in interest rates and the associated pickup in bank credit to the private sector. Progress with disinflation was better than expected. Year-over-year inflation declined from 7.2 percent at end-2002 to 3.5 percent in March 2004. IMF staff analysis suggests that the widening of the output gap associated with the economic slowdown was the dominant driving force behind disinflation in 2003.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; monetary policy; demand; inflation projection; Maastricht inflation criterion; wage drift; fiscal policy; disinflation record; exchange rate objective; Inflation; Wages; Exchange rates; Disinflation; Europe