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International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on drivers and impacts of inflation in Slovakia. High and volatile inflation in Slovakia in recent years seems to be mainly driven by volatile food prices amplified by the larger consumer price index weight of food items. Other drivers include the large impact of imported inflation, elevated profit margins of domestic firms, and higher wage growth. High inflation could erode external competitiveness through higher unit labor costs, but there is no clear evidence of this so far. Domestically, high inflation has had uneven impacts across households and firms. Firms with the largest cost increases experienced a deterioration in their financial situation, and certain categories of households, including those with low-income levels and the elderly, are particularly vulnerable to the rising cost of living. The recent fall in inflation is projected to continue, but strong unit labor cost growth or an increase in profit margins could keep inflation elevated and undermine competitiveness.
Ninghui Li
and
Thomas Pihl Gade
High emigration rates are a challenge in the Western Balkans. High emigration rates might lead to inadequate skilled labor and affect firm creation, capital formation, and economic convergence. The 2021 North Macedonia census reveals that more than 12.4% of North Macedonians live abroad. To assess the consequences, we estimate the impact of emigration on the number of firms and capital formation. Business dynamics can affect emigration reversely. To alleviate the endogeneity bias, we use a shift-share instrument with the historical diaspora networks and destination countries’ GDP growth rate as a source of exogenous variations. Our results show that (1) In the short run, a 1 percentage point increase in the emigration rate leads to a 2.91% decrease in the number of firms in the area of origin; (2) The long-run effects of emigration on the number of firms are less negative than the short-run impacts; (3) Emigration mainly reduces the number of micro and small firms; (4) Emigration affects the number of firms and capital formation more in the industrial sector than the other sectors, through the skilled labor shortage channel. This paper contributes to the literature on emigration and provides implications and policy considerations for developing countries, where high emigration rates are prevalent.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
This paper reports about current mainstream growth projections for the United States and the European Union over the medium term represent a marked slowdown from growth rates in the decades prior to the global financial crisis. Slower growth in Europe and the United States has mixed implications for growth prospects in developing economies. Most obviously, on the negative side, it means less demand for these countries’ exports, so models of development based on export-led growth may need to be rethought. In contrast, for Western Europe the narrative is about catch-up growth rather than the rate of cutting-edge technological progress. From the middle of the 20th century to the recent global crisis, this experience comprised three distinct phases. European medium-term growth prospects depend both on how fast productivity grows in the United States and whether catch-up growth can resume after a long hiatus. Economic historians see social capability as a key determinant of success or failure in catch-up growth.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper examines social spending reform and fiscal savings in Slovenia. Rising expenditure has been at the root of Slovenia’s fiscal deterioration since the onset of the crisis. The paper explores reform options to reduce Slovenia’s social spending over the medium and long term. It discusses key features of the pension system, and analyzes the evolution of pension spending in the absence of reforms. The paper also examines the health and education spending and provides a framework to assess their efficiency relative to other countries.
International Monetary Fund
This paper provides a background on the key policy challenges for Slovenia in the euro zone. Then, it assesses the discretionary scope to adjust spending and proposes initial steps to enhance budget flexibility so that fiscal adjustment can be targeted on relatively inefficient spending. This study also discusses the long-term fiscal sustainability position of Slovenia using a generational accounting framework. A simulation of retirement incentives suggests that the pension system will encourage individuals to retire earlier than the statutory full pensionable age. These incentives are stronger for low-income earners.
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

Voici plusieurs décennies que la nécessité d'une stratégie moderne de lutte contre le blanchiment de capitaux a été largement admise au niveau international. Le fait de priver les éléments criminels du produit de leurs crimes a été considéré de plus en plus comme un outil important pour lutter contre le trafic de stupéfiants et, plus récemment, comme un élément essentiel de la lutte contre le crime organisé, la corruption et le financement du terrorisme, ainsi que de la préservation de l'intégrité des marchés de capitaux. Les toutes premières cellules de renseignements financiers (CRF) ont été créées au début des années 90 en réponse à la nécessité pour les pays de disposer d'un organisme central pour la réception l'analyse et la diffusion d'informations financières en vue de lutter contre le blanchiment de capitaux. Au cours de la période qui a suivi, le nombre de CRF a continué d'augmenter : on en comptait 84 en 2003. Ce manuel répond aux besoins d'informations sur les CRF. Les informations fournies incluent le cas échéant des renvois aux normes pertinentes du GAFI.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

A partir de la última década, se comenzó a reconocer a nivel internacional la necesidad de adoptar una estrategia moderna para la prevención del lavado de activos. Privar a los criminales del producto de su actividad delictiva se está convirtiendo, en forma creciente, en un instrumento importante para combatir el comercio ilegítimo de estupefacientes y, más recientemente, en un elemento esencial de la lucha contra la delincuencia organizada, la corrupción y el financiamiento del terrorismo, y una forma de mantener la integridad de los mercados financieros. Las primeras unidades de inteligencia financiera (UIF) se crearon a comienzos de los años noventa como respuesta a la necesidad de los países de contar con un organismo central para recibir, analizar y divulgar información financiera con el fin de combatir el lavado de dinero. En el período subsiguiente, la cantidad de unidades de inteligencia financiera siguió aumentando hasta llegar a 84 en 2003. Este manual constituye una respuesta a la necesidad de información sobre las unidades de inteligencia financiera. En los casos pertinentes, se hace referencia a las normas correspondientes del Grupo de Acción Financiera Internacional (GAFI).

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

Over the past decade and beyond, the need for a modern anti-money-laundering strategy has become widely accepted internationally. Depriving criminal elements of the proceeds of their crimes has increasingly been seen as an important tool to combat drug trafficking and, more recently, as a critical element in fighting organized crime, corruption, and the financing of terrorism, and maintaining the integrity of financial markets. The first few financial intelligence units (FIUs) were established in the early 1990s in response to the need for countries to have a central agency to receive, analyze, and disseminate financial information to combat money laundering. Over the ensuing period, the number of FIUs has continued to increase, reaching 84 in 2003. This handbook responds to the need for information on FIUs. It provides references to the appropriate Financial ActionTask Force (FATF) standards wherever appropriate.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

Over the past decade and beyond, the need for a modern anti-money-laundering strategy has become widely accepted internationally. Depriving criminal elements of the proceeds of their crimes has increasingly been seen as an important tool to combat drug trafficking and, more recently, as a critical element in fighting organized crime, corruption, and the financing of terrorism, and maintaining the integrity of financial markets. The first few financial intelligence units (FIUs) were established in the early 1990s in response to the need for countries to have a central agency to receive, analyze, and disseminate financial information to combat money laundering. Over the ensuing period, the number of FIUs has continued to increase, reaching 84 in 2003. This handbook responds to the need for information on FIUs. It provides references to the appropriate Financial ActionTask Force (FATF) standards wherever appropriate.

International Monetary Fund
Poverty risk is most marked for children, displaced persons and returnees, unemployed, and people with low education. Basic goals of the macroeconomic framework of the mid-term development strategy of Bosnia and Herzegovina are to reduce the overall public expenditures, lower the public debt, and to bring the current account deficit to a sustainable level through fiscal consolidation. The strategy is to attract more foreign investment, create conditions for a more efficient privatization process, and to ensure new cycles of donor assistance.