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Europe > Slovenia, Republic of

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Euro Area Policies: 2024 Annual Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Member Countries
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation explains that the euro area is recovering gradually, with a modest acceleration of growth projected for 2024, gathering further speed in 2025. Increasing real wages together with some drawdown of household savings are contributing to consumption, while the projected easing of financing conditions is supporting a recovery in investment. A modest pickup in growth is projected for 2024, strengthening further in 2025. This primarily reflects expected stronger consumption on the back of rising real wages and higher investment supported by easing financing conditions. Inflation is projected to return to target in the second half of 2025. The economy is confronting important new challenges, layered on existing ones. Beyond returning inflation to target and ensuring credible fiscal consolidation in high-debt countries, the euro area must urgently focus on enhancing innovation and productivity. Higher growth is essential for creating policy space to tackle the fiscal challenges of aging, the green transition, energy security, and defense.
Keywords:
EU institution; EU industrial; headline inflation; EU climate; two-sided inflation risk; Inflation; Labor markets; Fiscal consolidation; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Slovenia: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Slovenia
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation highlights that Slovenia’s economy recovered well from the pandemic, only to be hit by spillovers from the war in Ukraine, followed by severe flooding in 2023. After a strong recovery in 2021, growth slowed in 2022 because of adverse energy price spillovers from the war in Ukraine and supply chain disruptions. Growth is expected to accelerate, driven by a recovery in domestic demand. Inflation is projected to continue to decline. The outlook remains subject to high uncertainty, with risks stemming from an intensification of regional conflicts, renewed commodity price volatility, and lower trading partners’ demand on the external side and labor shortages and broader capacity constraints on the domestic side. Severe weather events also remain a risk. Given underlying increase in core public spending in recent years, age-related spending pressures, and relatively high public debt, sustained fiscal consolidation and fiscal reforms, including in taxation, the pension, public wage and health systems, are needed to underpin long-term public debt sustainability. Deeper structural reforms would help boost growth and foster income convergence. Longer-term limits on employment growth call for reforms enhancing productivity growth, including improving regulatory quality, building human capital, and deepening the financial sector.
Keywords:
renewed commodity price volatility; money market rate; government finance statistic yearbook; expenditure category; emergency flood relief legislation; Natural disasters; Labor markets; Europe; Global; Middle East
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Croatia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper examines the competitiveness of Croatia’s goods exports and predicts its goods export diversification potential. The paper also discusses the goods export competitiveness using Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) with cross-country comparison and uses a machine-learning approach to worldwide product-level data to forecast Croatia’s goods export portfolio. Croatia has demonstrated goods export competitiveness beyond the tourism sector. Over the past few decades, its share of exports of goods with comparative advantage has exhibited a positive correlation with Croatia’s real income growth, while negatively correlated with its growth volatility. However, Croatia's export structure indicates its relatively modest status in medium- and high-technology goods compared to other Eurozone countries. A machine-learning-based analysis suggests that Croatia has potential in exporting a higher share of manufacturing goods in its export portfolio, especially technology-intensive ones. Raising productivity is important for Croatia to unleash the capacity for a higher and more resilient growth.
Keywords:
goods export competitiveness; goods export diversification; goods export comparative advantage; goods export structure; Croatia's GHG emission; Greenhouse gas emissions; Climate change; Carbon tax; Natural disasters; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Calibrating Macroprudential Policies in Europe Amid Rising Housing Market Vulnerability
Ms. Laura Valderrama
Housing market developments are in the spotlight in Europe. Over-stretched valuations amid tightening financial conditions and a cost-of-living crisis have increased risks of a sustained downturn and exposed challenging trade-offs for macroprudential policy between ensuring financial system resilience and smoothing the macro-financial cycle. Against this backdrop, this paper provides detailed considerations regarding how to (re)set macroprudential policy tools in response to housing-related systemic risk in Europe, providing design solutions to avoid unintended consequences during a tightening phase, and navigating the trade-offs between managing the build-up of vulnerabilities and the macro-financial cycle in a downturn. It also proposes a novel framework to measure the effectiveness of tools and avoid overlaps by quantifying the risks addressed by different macroprudential instruments. Finally, it introduces a taxonomy allowing to assess a country’s macroprudential stance and whether adjustments to current policy settings are warranted—such as the relaxation of capital-based tools and possibly some borrower-based measures in the event of a more severe downturn.
Keywords:
Housing markets; household vulnerability; income distribution; economic cycle; financial stability; macroprudential policy.; Macroprudential policy; housing market vulnerability; Policy tool; calibrating Macroprudential policies in Europe amide; Macroprudential Policy stance framework; Countercyclical capital buffers; Mortgages; Housing prices; Credit; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Romania: Technical Assistance Report on Improving Revenues from the Recurrent Property Tax
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This paper highlights Romania’s Technical Assistance report on improving revenues from the recurrent property tax. The current area-based property tax system in Romania is inefficient, producing revenue below its potential, while the taxable value determination is inequitable and complex. The best guiding principle for the property tax reform is to remind taxpayers that a property tax is in the first instance a benefit tax. Comprehensive property tax reform is complex, requiring both political and technical coordination, informed by realistic timelines. In respect of a recurrent property tax, there are two broad approaches to determine a taxable amount. The first approach—value-based assessment—utilizes methods and techniques that rely on market transactions to inform the value of property. It is generally agreed amongst experts that where it is possible to use the market-value approach in practice, since it provides the better, more buoyant, and more equitable tax base. A value-based assessment tends to better differentiate the tax burden between low-income and high-income households—accounting better for ability-to-pay or vertical equity.
Keywords:
property tax reform; real property; VALUE-BASED property tax; tax rate; property tax exemption; property tax system; property tax basis; Property tax; Land tax; Real estate prices; Asset valuation; Africa; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Are Climate Change Policies Politically Costly?
Davide Furceri
,
Michael Ganslmeier
, and
Mr. Jonathan David Ostry
Are policies designed to avert climate change (Climate Change Policies, or CCPs) politically costly? Using data on governmental popular support and the OECD’s Environmental Stringency Index, we find that CCPs are not necessarily politically costly: policy design matters. First, only market-based CCPs (such as emission taxes) generate negative effects on popular support. Second, the effects are muted in countries where non-green (dirty) energy is a relatively small input into production. Third, political costs are not significant when CCPs are implemented during periods of low oil prices, generous social insurance and low inequality.
Keywords:
EPS change; policy design; Policy implication; popular support; baseline model; Climate change; Climate policy; Fuel prices; Environmental policy; Natural disasters; Global
Cover Finance & Development
Finance and Development, March 2017
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
This paper reports about current mainstream growth projections for the United States and the European Union over the medium term represent a marked slowdown from growth rates in the decades prior to the global financial crisis. Slower growth in Europe and the United States has mixed implications for growth prospects in developing economies. Most obviously, on the negative side, it means less demand for these countries’ exports, so models of development based on export-led growth may need to be rethought. In contrast, for Western Europe the narrative is about catch-up growth rather than the rate of cutting-edge technological progress. From the middle of the 20th century to the recent global crisis, this experience comprised three distinct phases. European medium-term growth prospects depend both on how fast productivity grows in the United States and whether catch-up growth can resume after a long hiatus. Economic historians see social capability as a key determinant of success or failure in catch-up growth.
Keywords:
FD; F&D; economy; can money; workforce benefit; productivity growth; utility price; polymer note; pension payment; prices in the shop; Productivity; Non-renewable resources; Income inequality; Aging; Global; Europe; Sub-Saharan Africa; Western Europe; East Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Slovenia: Financial System Stability Assessment
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
and
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The Slovenian financial system has been hard hit by the crisis. Banks remained highly vulnerable to continued credit deterioration and refinancing risks. Strengthening of financial condition of banks should be the short-term priority. The financial restructuring should be followed by privatization of state-controlled banks. The supervision of financial institutions should be complemented with a macroprudential overview geared toward overall stability of the financial system. The crisis preparedness and management framework should be improved, and risks to systemic financial stability should be identified.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; bank lending; resolution tool kit; bridge bank; bank borrowing; bank equity; bank resolution tool kit; banking system; state-controlled bank; bank assets; capital market; bank downgrade; bank subsidiary; bank-restructuring transaction; Commercial banks; Stress testing; Loans; Insurance companies; Real estate prices; Global