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Europe > Slovenia, Republic of

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Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Republic of Slovenia: Technical Assistance Report-Public Investment Management Assessment
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Slovenia’s public investment management institutions, as assessed by the PIMA, perform well overall relative to European peers. Availability of funding for public investment, fiscal targets and rules, maintenance funding and monitoring of public assets are areas of strength. Key areas for improvement are appraisal and selection of projects, procurement, and portfolio management and oversight. The near-term challenge will be to address bottlenecks in the execution of capital projects. Over the medium to longer term, tighter fiscal constraints will raise the premium for stronger appraisal and selection processes.
Keywords:
Public investment management assessment; PIMA; Infrastructure governance; project appraisal; medium-term fiscal planning; Republic of Slovenia.; State secretary; IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department; D. investment implementation; management institution; C. investment allocation; Public investment spending; Budget planning and preparation; Infrastructure; Fiscal risks; Capital spending; Eastern Europe; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Slovenia: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Slovenia
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation highlights that Slovenia’s economy recovered well from the pandemic, only to be hit by spillovers from the war in Ukraine, followed by severe flooding in 2023. After a strong recovery in 2021, growth slowed in 2022 because of adverse energy price spillovers from the war in Ukraine and supply chain disruptions. Growth is expected to accelerate, driven by a recovery in domestic demand. Inflation is projected to continue to decline. The outlook remains subject to high uncertainty, with risks stemming from an intensification of regional conflicts, renewed commodity price volatility, and lower trading partners’ demand on the external side and labor shortages and broader capacity constraints on the domestic side. Severe weather events also remain a risk. Given underlying increase in core public spending in recent years, age-related spending pressures, and relatively high public debt, sustained fiscal consolidation and fiscal reforms, including in taxation, the pension, public wage and health systems, are needed to underpin long-term public debt sustainability. Deeper structural reforms would help boost growth and foster income convergence. Longer-term limits on employment growth call for reforms enhancing productivity growth, including improving regulatory quality, building human capital, and deepening the financial sector.
Keywords:
renewed commodity price volatility; money market rate; government finance statistic yearbook; expenditure category; emergency flood relief legislation; Natural disasters; Labor markets; Europe; Global; Middle East
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Croatia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper examines the competitiveness of Croatia’s goods exports and predicts its goods export diversification potential. The paper also discusses the goods export competitiveness using Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) with cross-country comparison and uses a machine-learning approach to worldwide product-level data to forecast Croatia’s goods export portfolio. Croatia has demonstrated goods export competitiveness beyond the tourism sector. Over the past few decades, its share of exports of goods with comparative advantage has exhibited a positive correlation with Croatia’s real income growth, while negatively correlated with its growth volatility. However, Croatia's export structure indicates its relatively modest status in medium- and high-technology goods compared to other Eurozone countries. A machine-learning-based analysis suggests that Croatia has potential in exporting a higher share of manufacturing goods in its export portfolio, especially technology-intensive ones. Raising productivity is important for Croatia to unleash the capacity for a higher and more resilient growth.
Keywords:
goods export competitiveness; goods export diversification; goods export comparative advantage; goods export structure; Croatia's GHG emission; Greenhouse gas emissions; Climate change; Carbon tax; Natural disasters; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Slovenia: Technical Assistance Report-Revenue Administration Gap Analysis Program—Corporate Income Tax Gap
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This paper discusses the estimates of tax gaps for corporate income tax (CIT) for nonfinancial corporations in Slovenia by applying the methodology of the IMF’s Revenue Administration – Gap Analysis Program (RA-GAP). The RA-GAP methodology for CIT gap is based on a top-down approach, which estimates the potential tax base and liability from macroeconomic data. The top-down estimation of the CIT gap provides an initial evaluation of the level and change in taxpayers’ compliance; however, further work in some areas is needed to improve the application of the methodology and reliability of results. Assessed CIT for nonfinancial corporations dropped from 2011 to 2012 then rose until 2020; potential CIT roughly followed the same pattern. The estimates for the assessment gap for nonfinancial corporations indicate there may have been an increase in 2012, and then a decline back to the 2011 levels. Under either method, the bulk of the assessment gap appears to be in the manufacturing sector.
Keywords:
CIT productivity; CIT liability; Ra-gap CIT gap methodology; gap estimate; IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department; CIT-efficiency ratio; CIT compliance gap; CIT gap analysis; Corporate income tax; Tax gap; Business enterprises; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Slovenia: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2022 Article IV Consultation discusses that Slovenia recovered quickly from the pandemic, with gross domestic product increasing by more than 8 percent in 2021, largely driven by exports and private consumption. Strong economic performance has continued into 2022, but growth slowed significantly in the third quarter as spillovers from the war in Ukraine and rising prices weighed on economic activity. Slovenia recovered quickly from the pandemic but Russia’s war in Ukraine is posing new challenges, especially the negative terms of trade shock. A center-left government took office in June, with a broad social and green reform agenda. Growth is expected to slow as external demand declines, higher prices hurt consumption, and supply constraints persist. Inflation will likely remain elevated. The economic outlook is uncertain, with significant downside risks stemming from the escalation of the war, further supply disruptions, the tight labor market, and high inflation. Policies should focus on providing targeted support to those affected by high commodity prices, while maintaining prudent fiscal and macroprudential stances, and on the continuation of structural reforms.
Keywords:
money market rate; government finance statistic yearbook; rising prices; mitigation measure; green transition; expenditure category; Energy prices; Inflation; Labor markets; Fiscal stance; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Romania: Technical Assistance Report on Improving Revenues from the Recurrent Property Tax
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This paper highlights Romania’s Technical Assistance report on improving revenues from the recurrent property tax. The current area-based property tax system in Romania is inefficient, producing revenue below its potential, while the taxable value determination is inequitable and complex. The best guiding principle for the property tax reform is to remind taxpayers that a property tax is in the first instance a benefit tax. Comprehensive property tax reform is complex, requiring both political and technical coordination, informed by realistic timelines. In respect of a recurrent property tax, there are two broad approaches to determine a taxable amount. The first approach—value-based assessment—utilizes methods and techniques that rely on market transactions to inform the value of property. It is generally agreed amongst experts that where it is possible to use the market-value approach in practice, since it provides the better, more buoyant, and more equitable tax base. A value-based assessment tends to better differentiate the tax burden between low-income and high-income households—accounting better for ability-to-pay or vertical equity.
Keywords:
property tax reform; real property; VALUE-BASED property tax; tax rate; property tax exemption; property tax system; property tax basis; Property tax; Land tax; Real estate prices; Asset valuation; Africa; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Slovenia: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Slovenia
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The pandemic is inflicting much suffering, which has been met with swift, substantial, and well-coordinated policy responses. The anti-crisis measures have helped preserve jobs, provide liquidity to companies and income support to the vulnerable groups. They averted a larger decline in output and kept unemployment under control. After contracting by 5.5 percent in 2020, real GDP is projected to grow by 3.9 percent in 2021 and 4.5 percent in 2022, as vaccinations help achieve herd immunity. However, risks to the outlook are large and tilted to the downside, given the epidemiological situation.
Keywords:
savings-investment gap; Policy discussion; money market rate; government finance statistic yearbook; liquidity position; COVID-19; Loans; Nonperforming loans; Government finance statistics; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Fiscal Multiplier of European Structural Investment Funds: Aggregate and Sectoral Effects with an Application to Slovenia
Mr. Raphael A Espinoza
In this paper, we estimate the aggregate and sectoral fiscal multipliers of EU Structural Investment (ESI) Funds and of public investment at the EU level. We complement these results with a specific application to the case of Slovenia. We first analyze aggregate data and find large and significant multipliers and strong crowding-in of private investment. Our main findings show that positive shocks to ESI Funds are followed by an increase in output that ranges from 1.2 percent on impact, to 1.8 percent after 1 year, and by an increase in private investment between 0.7 and 0.8 percent of GDP. We address country heterogeneity by dividing countries according to key characteristics that have been known to affect multipliers. In particular, we find higher multipliers in a group of CEE countries that are important recipients of European funds and are characterized by fixed exchange rate regimes and sound public investment governance (e.g. Croatia and Slovenia). We also complement the aggregate analysis by estimating the effect of different types of public investment and the effect of public investment on different sectors of the economy.
Keywords:
aggregate multiplier; sectoral multiplier; aggregate analysis; public investment; impact multiplier; Public investment spending; Private investment; Public employment; Manufacturing; Employment; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Slovenia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper argues that revenue-neutral tax rebalancing would help Slovenia address long-term fiscal and growth challenges. The present tax-benefit system is supportive of distributional fairness in Slovenia; however, it is argued that tax reform can help bring stronger employment and productivity growth and enhanced resilience to the challenges of population ageing. The paper lays out the case for tax reform in view of long-run fiscal and growth challenges and it also reviews the current tax system and its weaknesses in comparison with international best practices. The paper also sets out tax reform options and uses a model simulation to illustrate the medium- to long-term fiscal and growth impact. The analysis on the tax rebalancing impact suggests that it can permanently and significantly increase potential output in Slovenia. The simulations indicate that a revenue-neutral tax rebalancing has positive fiscal and growth benefits over time.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; revenue; property tax; rate; VAT; tax; VAT rate; capital gain; PIT rate structure; property tax regime; tax-to-GDP ratio; Consumption taxes; Personal income tax; Value-added tax; Income tax systems; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Slovenia: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Slovenia
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Article IV Consultation highlights that the continued structural reforms are key to ensure long-term prosperity, while strengthening the economy’s resilience to shocks. Effective implementation of the recently enacted reforms of vocational training, apprenticeship, and adult education would help address skill shortages, support employment of younger and older people, and boost productivity growth. Macro-financial legacy issues remain in bank and corporate balance sheets, including small and medium enterprises’ nonperforming loans. Structural challenges persist with low productivity growth, skills shortages, high tax wedge, heavy regulatory system, and extensive presence of state-owned enterprises. Policies should focus on fiscal and structural reforms to rebuild fiscal buffers and increase productivity. Slovenia’s external position in 2018 is assessed as substantially stronger than suggested by fundamentals and desirable policies; however the current account is expected to revert toward its norm in the medium term. Continued structural reforms are key to ensure long-term prosperity, while strengthening the economy’s resilience to shocks. Effective implementation of the recently enacted reforms of vocational training, apprenticeship, and adult education would help address skill shortages, support employment of younger and older people, and boost productivity growth.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; appraisal; item; supplementary information; update of the Draft Budget Plan; government finance statistic yearbook; outturn data; near-term growth prospect; growth-enhancing tax; Fiscal stance; Wages; Global; Europe