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Europe > Slovenia, Republic of

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 17 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Emigration, Business Dynamics, and Firm Heterogeneity in North Macedonia
Ninghui Li
and
Thomas Pihl Gade
High emigration rates are a challenge in the Western Balkans. High emigration rates might lead to inadequate skilled labor and affect firm creation, capital formation, and economic convergence. The 2021 North Macedonia census reveals that more than 12.4% of North Macedonians live abroad. To assess the consequences, we estimate the impact of emigration on the number of firms and capital formation. Business dynamics can affect emigration reversely. To alleviate the endogeneity bias, we use a shift-share instrument with the historical diaspora networks and destination countries’ GDP growth rate as a source of exogenous variations. Our results show that (1) In the short run, a 1 percentage point increase in the emigration rate leads to a 2.91% decrease in the number of firms in the area of origin; (2) The long-run effects of emigration on the number of firms are less negative than the short-run impacts; (3) Emigration mainly reduces the number of micro and small firms; (4) Emigration affects the number of firms and capital formation more in the industrial sector than the other sectors, through the skilled labor shortage channel. This paper contributes to the literature on emigration and provides implications and policy considerations for developing countries, where high emigration rates are prevalent.
Keywords:
Emigration; Labor market; Firm dynamics; Capital formation; North Macedonia; Panel data.; emigration rate; business dynamics; firm Heterogeneity; emigration challenge; emigration effect; Migration; Unemployment rate; Industrial sector; Labor markets; Labor shortages; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Firm Leverage and Boom-Bust Cycles
Can Sever
This paper explores the dynamic relationship between firm debt and real outcomes using data from 24 European economies over the period of 2000-2018. Based on macro data, it shows that a rise in credit to firms is associated with an increase in employment growth in the short-term, but employment growth declines in the medium-term. This pattern remains similar, even when the changes in credit to households are accounted for. Next, using data from a large sample of firms, it shows that firm leverage buildups predict similar boom-bust growth cycles in firm employment: Firms with a larger increase in leverage experience a boost in employment growth in the short-term, but employment growth decreases in the medium-term. Relatedly, the volatility of employment growth increases in the aftermath of firm leverage buildups. Finally, this paper provides suggestive evidence on the role of a financial channel in the relationship between firm leverage buildups and employment growth. The results show that a rise in firm leverage is associated with a persistently higher debt service ratio, pointing the drag on finances. Consistently, boom-bust growth cycles in the aftermath of firm leverage buildups are not limited to employment growth, but are also pronounced for investment. Moreover, the medium-term decline in firm employment growth as predicted by leverage buildups becomes even larger if aggregate financial conditions tighten. The findings are in favor of “lean against the wind” approach in policy making.
Keywords:
Firm leverage; firm debt; household debt; leverage cycles; employment; investment; boom-bust cycles; ORBIS; leverage buildup; employment growth; leverage cycle; growth cycle; cycles in the aftermath; Business cycles; Credit; Consumer credit; Credit booms; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Calibrating Macroprudential Policies in Europe Amid Rising Housing Market Vulnerability
Ms. Laura Valderrama
Housing market developments are in the spotlight in Europe. Over-stretched valuations amid tightening financial conditions and a cost-of-living crisis have increased risks of a sustained downturn and exposed challenging trade-offs for macroprudential policy between ensuring financial system resilience and smoothing the macro-financial cycle. Against this backdrop, this paper provides detailed considerations regarding how to (re)set macroprudential policy tools in response to housing-related systemic risk in Europe, providing design solutions to avoid unintended consequences during a tightening phase, and navigating the trade-offs between managing the build-up of vulnerabilities and the macro-financial cycle in a downturn. It also proposes a novel framework to measure the effectiveness of tools and avoid overlaps by quantifying the risks addressed by different macroprudential instruments. Finally, it introduces a taxonomy allowing to assess a country’s macroprudential stance and whether adjustments to current policy settings are warranted—such as the relaxation of capital-based tools and possibly some borrower-based measures in the event of a more severe downturn.
Keywords:
Housing markets; household vulnerability; income distribution; economic cycle; financial stability; macroprudential policy.; Macroprudential policy; housing market vulnerability; Policy tool; calibrating Macroprudential policies in Europe amide; Macroprudential Policy stance framework; Countercyclical capital buffers; Mortgages; Housing prices; Credit; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Slovenia: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2022 Article IV Consultation discusses that Slovenia recovered quickly from the pandemic, with gross domestic product increasing by more than 8 percent in 2021, largely driven by exports and private consumption. Strong economic performance has continued into 2022, but growth slowed significantly in the third quarter as spillovers from the war in Ukraine and rising prices weighed on economic activity. Slovenia recovered quickly from the pandemic but Russia’s war in Ukraine is posing new challenges, especially the negative terms of trade shock. A center-left government took office in June, with a broad social and green reform agenda. Growth is expected to slow as external demand declines, higher prices hurt consumption, and supply constraints persist. Inflation will likely remain elevated. The economic outlook is uncertain, with significant downside risks stemming from the escalation of the war, further supply disruptions, the tight labor market, and high inflation. Policies should focus on providing targeted support to those affected by high commodity prices, while maintaining prudent fiscal and macroprudential stances, and on the continuation of structural reforms.
Keywords:
money market rate; government finance statistic yearbook; rising prices; mitigation measure; green transition; expenditure category; Energy prices; Inflation; Labor markets; Fiscal stance; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Determinants and Effects of Countries’ External Capital Structure: A Firm-Level Analysis
Uroš Herman
and
Tobias Krahnke
In this paper, we investigate whether a firm’s composition of foreign liabilities matters for their resilience during economic turmoil and examine which characteristics determine a firm’s foreign capital structure. Using firm-level data, we corroborate previous findings from the (international) macroeconomic literature that the composition of foreign liabilities matters for a country’s susceptibility to external shocks. We find that firms with a positive equity share in their foreign liabilities were less affected by the global financial crisis and also less likely to default in the aftermath of the crisis. In addition, we show that larger, more open, and more productive firms tend to have a higher equity share in total foreign liabilities.
Keywords:
External Liabilities; Foreign Direct Investment; Firm-level data; Financial Crisis; equity share; firm's composition; firm-level data; sales growth; standard deviation; Foreign liabilities; Foreign corporations; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Foreign direct investment; Corporate sector; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Usability of Bank Capital Buffers: The Role of Market Expectations
José Abad
Following the COVID shock, supervisors encouraged banks to use capital buffers to support the recovery. However, banks have been reluctant to do so. Provided the market expects a bank to rebuild its buffers, any draw-down will open up a capital shortfall that will weigh on its share price. Therefore, a bank will only decide to use its buffers if the value creation from a larger loan book offsets the costs associated with a capital shortfall. Using market expectations, we calibrate a framework for assessing the usability of buffers. Our results suggest that the cases in which the use of buffers make economic sense are rare in practice.
Keywords:
Capital Buffers; Basel III; Capital Regulation; Financial Institutions; Macropru; valuation model; buffer Usability; market expectation; bank Capital Structure; capital shortfall; Countercyclical capital buffers; Correspondent banking; Loans; Market capitalization; COVID-19; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Are Climate Change Policies Politically Costly?
Davide Furceri
,
Michael Ganslmeier
, and
Mr. Jonathan David Ostry
Are policies designed to avert climate change (Climate Change Policies, or CCPs) politically costly? Using data on governmental popular support and the OECD’s Environmental Stringency Index, we find that CCPs are not necessarily politically costly: policy design matters. First, only market-based CCPs (such as emission taxes) generate negative effects on popular support. Second, the effects are muted in countries where non-green (dirty) energy is a relatively small input into production. Third, political costs are not significant when CCPs are implemented during periods of low oil prices, generous social insurance and low inequality.
Keywords:
EPS change; policy design; Policy implication; popular support; baseline model; Climate change; Climate policy; Fuel prices; Environmental policy; Natural disasters; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Fiscal Multiplier of European Structural Investment Funds: Aggregate and Sectoral Effects with an Application to Slovenia
Mr. Raphael A Espinoza
In this paper, we estimate the aggregate and sectoral fiscal multipliers of EU Structural Investment (ESI) Funds and of public investment at the EU level. We complement these results with a specific application to the case of Slovenia. We first analyze aggregate data and find large and significant multipliers and strong crowding-in of private investment. Our main findings show that positive shocks to ESI Funds are followed by an increase in output that ranges from 1.2 percent on impact, to 1.8 percent after 1 year, and by an increase in private investment between 0.7 and 0.8 percent of GDP. We address country heterogeneity by dividing countries according to key characteristics that have been known to affect multipliers. In particular, we find higher multipliers in a group of CEE countries that are important recipients of European funds and are characterized by fixed exchange rate regimes and sound public investment governance (e.g. Croatia and Slovenia). We also complement the aggregate analysis by estimating the effect of different types of public investment and the effect of public investment on different sectors of the economy.
Keywords:
aggregate multiplier; sectoral multiplier; aggregate analysis; public investment; impact multiplier; Public investment spending; Private investment; Public employment; Manufacturing; Employment; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Slovenia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper takes the case of Slovenia to analyze credit growth and economic recovery in Europe. The findings reveal that following the global financial crisis recovery in Slovenia significantly lags typical postrecession recoveries for both typical and financial-crisis-driven recessions. Credit dynamics have also been much more subdued. Controlling for Slovenia’s double-dip recession and the slowdown in global growth after the global financial crisis reveals that Slovenia’s recovery is not atypical. The cross-country study also finds that bank-specific factors are the key determinants of bank lending. Bank credit to the private sector also has a positive but modest impact on economic activity, mainly through the investment channel.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; export; Slovenia; GDP; bank credit growth; export category; Slovenia's export; bank credit dynamics; post GFC-recovery; goods export; Labor markets; Exports; Bank credit; Employment; Unemployment; Global; Europe; Southern Europe; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Slovenia: Technical Assistance Report-Contingency Planning and Crisis Management
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Technical Assistance report makes recommendations regarding introduction of an effective framework for contingency planning and crisis management, including bank resolution and deposit guarantees, in Slovenia. It is recommended that a communication plan and strategy be developed, both within the Bank of Slovenia and at the national level, to speak with one voice during financial crises. The members of Co-ordination Group/Financial Stability Board (CG/FSB) must harmonize their efforts to carefully coordinate information, provide consistent communication to the public, and ensure that they use the same facts and assumptions. Whenever a crisis appears forthcoming, CG/FSB members should plan to deliver a media statement providing information in a constructive manner to reassure the public.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; authority; bank; FSB member; BOS regulation; bank resolution regime; BOS contingency plan; government capital; BOS staff resource; bank resolution unit; SSM bank; Bank resolution; Crisis management; Contingency planning; Bridge bank; Bank resolution framework