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Europe > Slovenia, Republic of

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Slovenia: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Slovenia
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation highlights that Slovenia’s economy recovered well from the pandemic, only to be hit by spillovers from the war in Ukraine, followed by severe flooding in 2023. After a strong recovery in 2021, growth slowed in 2022 because of adverse energy price spillovers from the war in Ukraine and supply chain disruptions. Growth is expected to accelerate, driven by a recovery in domestic demand. Inflation is projected to continue to decline. The outlook remains subject to high uncertainty, with risks stemming from an intensification of regional conflicts, renewed commodity price volatility, and lower trading partners’ demand on the external side and labor shortages and broader capacity constraints on the domestic side. Severe weather events also remain a risk. Given underlying increase in core public spending in recent years, age-related spending pressures, and relatively high public debt, sustained fiscal consolidation and fiscal reforms, including in taxation, the pension, public wage and health systems, are needed to underpin long-term public debt sustainability. Deeper structural reforms would help boost growth and foster income convergence. Longer-term limits on employment growth call for reforms enhancing productivity growth, including improving regulatory quality, building human capital, and deepening the financial sector.
Keywords:
renewed commodity price volatility; money market rate; government finance statistic yearbook; expenditure category; emergency flood relief legislation; Natural disasters; Labor markets; Europe; Global; Middle East
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Slovenia: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2022 Article IV Consultation discusses that Slovenia recovered quickly from the pandemic, with gross domestic product increasing by more than 8 percent in 2021, largely driven by exports and private consumption. Strong economic performance has continued into 2022, but growth slowed significantly in the third quarter as spillovers from the war in Ukraine and rising prices weighed on economic activity. Slovenia recovered quickly from the pandemic but Russia’s war in Ukraine is posing new challenges, especially the negative terms of trade shock. A center-left government took office in June, with a broad social and green reform agenda. Growth is expected to slow as external demand declines, higher prices hurt consumption, and supply constraints persist. Inflation will likely remain elevated. The economic outlook is uncertain, with significant downside risks stemming from the escalation of the war, further supply disruptions, the tight labor market, and high inflation. Policies should focus on providing targeted support to those affected by high commodity prices, while maintaining prudent fiscal and macroprudential stances, and on the continuation of structural reforms.
Keywords:
money market rate; government finance statistic yearbook; rising prices; mitigation measure; green transition; expenditure category; Energy prices; Inflation; Labor markets; Fiscal stance; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Slovenia: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Slovenia
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The pandemic is inflicting much suffering, which has been met with swift, substantial, and well-coordinated policy responses. The anti-crisis measures have helped preserve jobs, provide liquidity to companies and income support to the vulnerable groups. They averted a larger decline in output and kept unemployment under control. After contracting by 5.5 percent in 2020, real GDP is projected to grow by 3.9 percent in 2021 and 4.5 percent in 2022, as vaccinations help achieve herd immunity. However, risks to the outlook are large and tilted to the downside, given the epidemiological situation.
Keywords:
savings-investment gap; Policy discussion; money market rate; government finance statistic yearbook; liquidity position; COVID-19; Loans; Nonperforming loans; Government finance statistics; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Slovenia: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Slovenia
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Article IV Consultation highlights that the continued structural reforms are key to ensure long-term prosperity, while strengthening the economy’s resilience to shocks. Effective implementation of the recently enacted reforms of vocational training, apprenticeship, and adult education would help address skill shortages, support employment of younger and older people, and boost productivity growth. Macro-financial legacy issues remain in bank and corporate balance sheets, including small and medium enterprises’ nonperforming loans. Structural challenges persist with low productivity growth, skills shortages, high tax wedge, heavy regulatory system, and extensive presence of state-owned enterprises. Policies should focus on fiscal and structural reforms to rebuild fiscal buffers and increase productivity. Slovenia’s external position in 2018 is assessed as substantially stronger than suggested by fundamentals and desirable policies; however the current account is expected to revert toward its norm in the medium term. Continued structural reforms are key to ensure long-term prosperity, while strengthening the economy’s resilience to shocks. Effective implementation of the recently enacted reforms of vocational training, apprenticeship, and adult education would help address skill shortages, support employment of younger and older people, and boost productivity growth.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; appraisal; item; supplementary information; update of the Draft Budget Plan; government finance statistic yearbook; outturn data; near-term growth prospect; growth-enhancing tax; Fiscal stance; Wages; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Nowcashing: Using Daily Fiscal Data for Real-Time Macroeconomic Analysis
Florian Misch
,
Mr. Brian Olden
,
Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro
, and
Lamya Kejji
Traditionally, fiscal data for policy analysis are derived from official reports that, depending on the country, are published either monthly, quarterly or annually, often with significant time lags. However, innovations in digitalization of government payments and accounting systems mean that real-time daily fiscal data exist in many countries. In this paper, we argue that these data contain valuable, but underutilized and underexploited information. Possible uses include (i) realtime fiscal surveillance which allows for much more timely responses to emerging signs of fiscal stress, and (ii) nowcasting economic activity, which is especially useful in countries where higher frequency GDP statistics are unavailable.
Keywords:
WP; government; balance; cash balance; economic activity; country; government banking arrangement; Nowcashing; Real-time data; Fiscal policy; Nowcasting; balances data; government payment system; government bank accounts; Government finance statistics; Currencies; PFM information systems; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Slovenia: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Slovenia
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights Slovenia’s fourth year of steady economic recovery, following decisive measures to address a looming banking crisis in 2013. Output and employment have risen considerably. The external position has strengthened, reflecting robust exports and strong tourism. The financial system has substantially improved in the past few years. Rising domestic demand and continuing strong exports will support projected growth of about 3 percent in 2017. Over the medium term, economic growth will converge to the estimated potential GDP growth rate of 1.75 to 2.00 percent. Higher growth is possible if policies increase investment, reduce labor skills mismatches, and boost total factor productivity growth.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; staff appraisal; expenditure reduction; trade balance of goods; EC's response; Slovenia; banking industry; labor market functioning; Nonperforming loans; Fiscal stance; Government finance statistics; Balance of payments statistics; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Slovenia: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report for the Republic of Slovenia
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper discusses recent economic developments, outlook, and risks in Slovenia. Although strong demand in trading partners and large European Union structural fund transfers buoyed growth in 2014–15, the outlook is less reassuring. The short-term outlook is broadly balanced, while medium-term prospects are subject to downside risks. Significant structural reforms are needed to realize Slovenia’s growth potential, but political tensions and coalition discussions may affect their pace and ambition. Slovenia needs to avoid complacency; with more ambitious reforms, growth can be faster and more sustainable. Concrete measures need to be taken to address binding constraints on growth and reduce financial and fiscal vulnerabilities.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; bank; retail price index; support; General government balance excl. bank support; debt; Slovenia; government finance statistics methodology; SME debt; money market rate; government finance statistic yearbook; headline inflation; Nonperforming loans; Government finance statistics; Balance of payments statistics; Fiscal stance; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Slovenia: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that Slovenia is recovering from a deep crisis. Growth is estimated to have reached about 2.6 percent in 2014, supported by strong exports and EU-funded public investment. The financial sector has stabilized following recapitalization of the major banks by the state. Government bonds yields have declined markedly. Growth is projected at about 1.9 and 1.7 percent in 2015 and 2016, respectively, with potential growth well below precrisis levels. Executive Directors welcomed the fact that Slovenia’s economy is recovering and commended the authorities for their efforts to mend the banking system, facilitate corporate debt restructuring, and consolidate the public finances.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; General government balance excl. bank support; GDP; net acquisition; deficit; staff's projection; fiscal outturn; government bonds bond yield; Nonperforming loans; Fiscal stance; Government finance statistics; Balance of payments statistics; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Slovenia: Staff Report for the 2013 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Information Annex highlights that Slovenia maintains an exchange system that is free of restrictions on the making of payments and transfers for current international transactions, with the exception of exchange restrictions maintained for security reasons. Slovenian fiscal statistics are timely and high quality. The Ministry of Finance publishes a comprehensive monthly Bulletin of Government Finance, which presents monthly data on the operations of the state budget, local governments, social security, and the consolidated general government. The coverage of general government excludes the operations of extrabudgetary funds and general government agencies’ own revenues. However, these operations are small.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; debt; authority; debt ratio; bond yield; Slovenian authority; debt shock; bank support outlay; assumed debt; bank depositor; debt path; labor market; Asset quality review; Government finance statistics; State-owned banks; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Cross-Country Linkages in Europe: A Global VAR Analysis
Ms. Yan M Sun
,
Mr. Frigyes F Heinz
, and
Giang Ho
This paper uses the Global VAR (GVAR) model proposed by Pesaran et al. (2004) to study cross-country linkages among euro area countries, other advanced European countries (including the Nordics, the UK, etc.), and the Central, Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) countries. An innovative feature of the paper is the use of combined trade and financial weights (based on BIS reporting banks’ external position data) to capture the very close trade and financial ties of the CESEE countries with the advanced Europe countries. The results show strong co-movements in output growth and interest rates but weaker linkages bewteen inflation and real credit growth within Europe. While the euro area is the dominant source of economic influences, there are also interesting subregional linkages, e.g. between the Nordic and the Baltic countries, and a small but notable impact of CESEE countries on the rest of the Europe.
Keywords:
WP; CESEE country; real GDP; Nordic country; country VAR; country sample; Spillover; Global VAR; regional model; macro-financial linkages; emerging Europe; VAR model; ith economy; growth rate; Credit; Vector autoregression; Inflation; Long term interest rates; Production growth; Baltics; Europe; Western Europe; Global