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Europe > Slovenia, Republic of

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 20 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt x
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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Slovenia: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Slovenia
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation highlights that Slovenia’s economy recovered well from the pandemic, only to be hit by spillovers from the war in Ukraine, followed by severe flooding in 2023. After a strong recovery in 2021, growth slowed in 2022 because of adverse energy price spillovers from the war in Ukraine and supply chain disruptions. Growth is expected to accelerate, driven by a recovery in domestic demand. Inflation is projected to continue to decline. The outlook remains subject to high uncertainty, with risks stemming from an intensification of regional conflicts, renewed commodity price volatility, and lower trading partners’ demand on the external side and labor shortages and broader capacity constraints on the domestic side. Severe weather events also remain a risk. Given underlying increase in core public spending in recent years, age-related spending pressures, and relatively high public debt, sustained fiscal consolidation and fiscal reforms, including in taxation, the pension, public wage and health systems, are needed to underpin long-term public debt sustainability. Deeper structural reforms would help boost growth and foster income convergence. Longer-term limits on employment growth call for reforms enhancing productivity growth, including improving regulatory quality, building human capital, and deepening the financial sector.
Keywords:
renewed commodity price volatility; money market rate; government finance statistic yearbook; expenditure category; emergency flood relief legislation; Natural disasters; Labor markets; Europe; Global; Middle East
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Slovenia: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Slovenia
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The pandemic is inflicting much suffering, which has been met with swift, substantial, and well-coordinated policy responses. The anti-crisis measures have helped preserve jobs, provide liquidity to companies and income support to the vulnerable groups. They averted a larger decline in output and kept unemployment under control. After contracting by 5.5 percent in 2020, real GDP is projected to grow by 3.9 percent in 2021 and 4.5 percent in 2022, as vaccinations help achieve herd immunity. However, risks to the outlook are large and tilted to the downside, given the epidemiological situation.
Keywords:
savings-investment gap; Policy discussion; money market rate; government finance statistic yearbook; liquidity position; COVID-19; Loans; Nonperforming loans; Government finance statistics; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Slovenia: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Slovenia
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Article IV Consultation highlights that the continued structural reforms are key to ensure long-term prosperity, while strengthening the economy’s resilience to shocks. Effective implementation of the recently enacted reforms of vocational training, apprenticeship, and adult education would help address skill shortages, support employment of younger and older people, and boost productivity growth. Macro-financial legacy issues remain in bank and corporate balance sheets, including small and medium enterprises’ nonperforming loans. Structural challenges persist with low productivity growth, skills shortages, high tax wedge, heavy regulatory system, and extensive presence of state-owned enterprises. Policies should focus on fiscal and structural reforms to rebuild fiscal buffers and increase productivity. Slovenia’s external position in 2018 is assessed as substantially stronger than suggested by fundamentals and desirable policies; however the current account is expected to revert toward its norm in the medium term. Continued structural reforms are key to ensure long-term prosperity, while strengthening the economy’s resilience to shocks. Effective implementation of the recently enacted reforms of vocational training, apprenticeship, and adult education would help address skill shortages, support employment of younger and older people, and boost productivity growth.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; appraisal; item; supplementary information; update of the Draft Budget Plan; government finance statistic yearbook; outturn data; near-term growth prospect; growth-enhancing tax; Fiscal stance; Wages; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
State-Owned Enterprises in Emerging Europe: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
Uwe Böwer
State-owned enterprises (SOEs) play an important role in Emerging Europe’s economies, notably in the energy and transport sectors. Based on a new firm-level dataset, this paper reviews the SOE landscape, assesses SOE performance across countries and vis-à-vis private firms, and evaluates recent SOE governance reform experience in 11 Emerging European countries, as well as Sweden as a benchmark. Profitability and efficiency of resource allocation of SOEs lag those of private firms in most sectors, with substantial cross-country variation. Poor SOE performance raises three main risks: large and risky contingent liabilities could stretch public finances; sizeable state ownership of banks coupled with poor governance could threaten financial stability; and negative productivity spillovers could affect the economy at large. SOE governance frameworks are partly weak and should be strengthened along three lines: fleshing out a consistent ownership policy; giving teeth to financial oversight; and making SOE boards more professional.
Keywords:
WP; SOE performance; output share; SOE governance challenge; governance reform; SOE profitability; State-Owned Enterprises; Emerging Europe Author’s; firm profitability; SOE landscape; oversight unit; ownership function; performance target; reform effort; professionalized SOE board; infrastructure sector; Public enterprises; Energy sector; Services sector; Contingent liabilities; Productivity; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Re-Emerging Privilege of Euro Area Membership
Mr. Johannes Wiegand
When the euro was introduced in 1998, one objective was to create an alternative global reserve currency that would grant benefits to euro area countries similar to the U.S. dollar’s “exorbitant privliege”: i.e., a boost to the perceived quality of euro denominated assets that would increase demand for such assets and reduce euro area members’ funding costs. This paper uses risk perceptions as revelaed in investor surveys to extract a measure of privilege asscociated with euro membership, and traces its evolution over time. It finds that in the 2000s, euro area assets benefited indeed from a significant perceptions premium. While this premium disappeared in the wake of the euro crisis, it has recently returned, although at a reduced size. The paper also produces time-varying estimates of the weights that investors place on macro-economic fundmentals in their assessments of country risk. It finds that the weights of public debt, the current account and real growth increased considerably during the euro crisis, and that these shifts have remained in place even after the immediate financial stress subsided.
Keywords:
WP; euro; area membership; euro area; euro crisis; exorbitant privlege; investor perceptions; time dummy; investor perception; governance framework; Euro premium; euro adoption; area privilege; membership premium; Credit ratings; Unemployment rate; Currencies; Exchange rate arrangements; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Slovenia: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Slovenia
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights Slovenia’s fourth year of steady economic recovery, following decisive measures to address a looming banking crisis in 2013. Output and employment have risen considerably. The external position has strengthened, reflecting robust exports and strong tourism. The financial system has substantially improved in the past few years. Rising domestic demand and continuing strong exports will support projected growth of about 3 percent in 2017. Over the medium term, economic growth will converge to the estimated potential GDP growth rate of 1.75 to 2.00 percent. Higher growth is possible if policies increase investment, reduce labor skills mismatches, and boost total factor productivity growth.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; staff appraisal; expenditure reduction; trade balance of goods; EC's response; Slovenia; banking industry; labor market functioning; Nonperforming loans; Fiscal stance; Government finance statistics; Balance of payments statistics; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Slovenia: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report for the Republic of Slovenia
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper discusses recent economic developments, outlook, and risks in Slovenia. Although strong demand in trading partners and large European Union structural fund transfers buoyed growth in 2014–15, the outlook is less reassuring. The short-term outlook is broadly balanced, while medium-term prospects are subject to downside risks. Significant structural reforms are needed to realize Slovenia’s growth potential, but political tensions and coalition discussions may affect their pace and ambition. Slovenia needs to avoid complacency; with more ambitious reforms, growth can be faster and more sustainable. Concrete measures need to be taken to address binding constraints on growth and reduce financial and fiscal vulnerabilities.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; bank; retail price index; support; General government balance excl. bank support; debt; Slovenia; government finance statistics methodology; SME debt; money market rate; government finance statistic yearbook; headline inflation; Nonperforming loans; Government finance statistics; Balance of payments statistics; Fiscal stance; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Slovenia: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that Slovenia is recovering from a deep crisis. Growth is estimated to have reached about 2.6 percent in 2014, supported by strong exports and EU-funded public investment. The financial sector has stabilized following recapitalization of the major banks by the state. Government bonds yields have declined markedly. Growth is projected at about 1.9 and 1.7 percent in 2015 and 2016, respectively, with potential growth well below precrisis levels. Executive Directors welcomed the fact that Slovenia’s economy is recovering and commended the authorities for their efforts to mend the banking system, facilitate corporate debt restructuring, and consolidate the public finances.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; General government balance excl. bank support; GDP; net acquisition; deficit; staff's projection; fiscal outturn; government bonds bond yield; Nonperforming loans; Fiscal stance; Government finance statistics; Balance of payments statistics; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Sovereign CDS Spreads in Europe: The Role of Global Risk Aversion, Economic Fundamentals, Liquidity, and Spillovers
Mr. Frigyes F Heinz
and
Ms. Yan M Sun
By analysing data from January 2007 to December 2012 in a panel GLS error correction framework we find that European countries’ sovereign CDS spreads are largely driven by global investor sentiment, macroeconomic fundamentals and liquidity conditions in the CDS market. But the relative importance of these factors changes over time. While during the 2008/09 crisis weak economic fundamentals (such as high current account decifit, worsening underlying fiscal balances, credit boom), a drop in liquidity and a spike in risk aversion contributed to high spreads in Central and Eastern and South-Eastern European (CESEE) countries, a marked improvement in fundamentals (e.g. reduction in fiscal deficit, narrowing of current balances, gradual economic recovery) explains the region’s resilience to financial market spillovers during the euro area crisis. Our generalised variance decomposition analyisis does not suggest strong direct spillovers from the euro area periphery. The significant drop in the CDS spreads between July 2012 and December 2012 was mainly driven by a decline in risk aversion as suggested by the model’s out of sample forecasts.
Keywords:
WP; CDS spread; financial market; area crisis; real GDP; CESEE countries; financial spillovers; CDS spreads; CESEE country; sovereign CDS; area CDS; norm decomposition; periphery country; CDS bid; CDS market liquidity condition; Credit default swap; Government debt management; Spillovers; Liquidity; Current account balance; Global; Baltics
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Slovenia: Staff Report for the 2013 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Information Annex highlights that Slovenia maintains an exchange system that is free of restrictions on the making of payments and transfers for current international transactions, with the exception of exchange restrictions maintained for security reasons. Slovenian fiscal statistics are timely and high quality. The Ministry of Finance publishes a comprehensive monthly Bulletin of Government Finance, which presents monthly data on the operations of the state budget, local governments, social security, and the consolidated general government. The coverage of general government excludes the operations of extrabudgetary funds and general government agencies’ own revenues. However, these operations are small.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; debt; authority; debt ratio; bond yield; Slovenian authority; debt shock; bank support outlay; assumed debt; bank depositor; debt path; labor market; Asset quality review; Government finance statistics; State-owned banks; Global