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Europe > Slovenia, Republic of

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 48 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Calibrating Macroprudential Policies in Europe Amid Rising Housing Market Vulnerability
Ms. Laura Valderrama
Housing market developments are in the spotlight in Europe. Over-stretched valuations amid tightening financial conditions and a cost-of-living crisis have increased risks of a sustained downturn and exposed challenging trade-offs for macroprudential policy between ensuring financial system resilience and smoothing the macro-financial cycle. Against this backdrop, this paper provides detailed considerations regarding how to (re)set macroprudential policy tools in response to housing-related systemic risk in Europe, providing design solutions to avoid unintended consequences during a tightening phase, and navigating the trade-offs between managing the build-up of vulnerabilities and the macro-financial cycle in a downturn. It also proposes a novel framework to measure the effectiveness of tools and avoid overlaps by quantifying the risks addressed by different macroprudential instruments. Finally, it introduces a taxonomy allowing to assess a country’s macroprudential stance and whether adjustments to current policy settings are warranted—such as the relaxation of capital-based tools and possibly some borrower-based measures in the event of a more severe downturn.
Keywords:
Housing markets; household vulnerability; income distribution; economic cycle; financial stability; macroprudential policy.; Macroprudential policy; housing market vulnerability; Policy tool; calibrating Macroprudential policies in Europe amide; Macroprudential Policy stance framework; Countercyclical capital buffers; Mortgages; Housing prices; Credit; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Usability of Bank Capital Buffers: The Role of Market Expectations
José Abad
Following the COVID shock, supervisors encouraged banks to use capital buffers to support the recovery. However, banks have been reluctant to do so. Provided the market expects a bank to rebuild its buffers, any draw-down will open up a capital shortfall that will weigh on its share price. Therefore, a bank will only decide to use its buffers if the value creation from a larger loan book offsets the costs associated with a capital shortfall. Using market expectations, we calibrate a framework for assessing the usability of buffers. Our results suggest that the cases in which the use of buffers make economic sense are rare in practice.
Keywords:
Capital Buffers; Basel III; Capital Regulation; Financial Institutions; Macropru; valuation model; buffer Usability; market expectation; bank Capital Structure; capital shortfall; Countercyclical capital buffers; Correspondent banking; Loans; Market capitalization; COVID-19; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Slovenia: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Slovenia
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The pandemic is inflicting much suffering, which has been met with swift, substantial, and well-coordinated policy responses. The anti-crisis measures have helped preserve jobs, provide liquidity to companies and income support to the vulnerable groups. They averted a larger decline in output and kept unemployment under control. After contracting by 5.5 percent in 2020, real GDP is projected to grow by 3.9 percent in 2021 and 4.5 percent in 2022, as vaccinations help achieve herd immunity. However, risks to the outlook are large and tilted to the downside, given the epidemiological situation.
Keywords:
savings-investment gap; Policy discussion; money market rate; government finance statistic yearbook; liquidity position; COVID-19; Loans; Nonperforming loans; Government finance statistics; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Slovenia: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Slovenia
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Article IV Consultation highlights that the continued structural reforms are key to ensure long-term prosperity, while strengthening the economy’s resilience to shocks. Effective implementation of the recently enacted reforms of vocational training, apprenticeship, and adult education would help address skill shortages, support employment of younger and older people, and boost productivity growth. Macro-financial legacy issues remain in bank and corporate balance sheets, including small and medium enterprises’ nonperforming loans. Structural challenges persist with low productivity growth, skills shortages, high tax wedge, heavy regulatory system, and extensive presence of state-owned enterprises. Policies should focus on fiscal and structural reforms to rebuild fiscal buffers and increase productivity. Slovenia’s external position in 2018 is assessed as substantially stronger than suggested by fundamentals and desirable policies; however the current account is expected to revert toward its norm in the medium term. Continued structural reforms are key to ensure long-term prosperity, while strengthening the economy’s resilience to shocks. Effective implementation of the recently enacted reforms of vocational training, apprenticeship, and adult education would help address skill shortages, support employment of younger and older people, and boost productivity growth.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; appraisal; item; supplementary information; update of the Draft Budget Plan; government finance statistic yearbook; outturn data; near-term growth prospect; growth-enhancing tax; Fiscal stance; Wages; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Portfolio Inflows Eclipsing Banking Inflows: Alternative Facts?
Mr. Eugenio M Cerutti
and
Mr. Gee Hee Hong
Superficial examination of aggregate gross cross-border capital inflow data suggests that there was no substitution between portfolio inflows and bank loans in recent years. However, our novel analysis of disaggregate inflows (both by types of instrument and borrower) shows interesting heterogeneity. There has been substitution of bank loans for portfolio debt securities not only in the case of corporate and sovereign borrowers in advanced countries, but also sovereign borrowers in emerging countries. In the case of corporate borrowers in emerging markets, the relationship corresponds to complementarity across types of gross capital inflows, especially during periods of positive capital gross inflows after the global financial crisis. A large part of these patterns does not seem to be driven by a common phenomenon across countries associated with the global financial cycle, but rather by country-specific factors.
Keywords:
WP; capital flows; portfolio inflows; bank inflows; global financial cycle; portfolio debt; loan inflow; AE corporate; borrower type; investment loan; factor loading; debt inflow; debt optimization operation; Loans; Capital inflows; Securities; Stocks; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Slovenia: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Slovenia
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights Slovenia’s fourth year of steady economic recovery, following decisive measures to address a looming banking crisis in 2013. Output and employment have risen considerably. The external position has strengthened, reflecting robust exports and strong tourism. The financial system has substantially improved in the past few years. Rising domestic demand and continuing strong exports will support projected growth of about 3 percent in 2017. Over the medium term, economic growth will converge to the estimated potential GDP growth rate of 1.75 to 2.00 percent. Higher growth is possible if policies increase investment, reduce labor skills mismatches, and boost total factor productivity growth.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; staff appraisal; expenditure reduction; trade balance of goods; EC's response; Slovenia; banking industry; labor market functioning; Nonperforming loans; Fiscal stance; Government finance statistics; Balance of payments statistics; Global; Europe
Cover Finance & Development
Finance and Development, March 2017
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
This paper reports about current mainstream growth projections for the United States and the European Union over the medium term represent a marked slowdown from growth rates in the decades prior to the global financial crisis. Slower growth in Europe and the United States has mixed implications for growth prospects in developing economies. Most obviously, on the negative side, it means less demand for these countries’ exports, so models of development based on export-led growth may need to be rethought. In contrast, for Western Europe the narrative is about catch-up growth rather than the rate of cutting-edge technological progress. From the middle of the 20th century to the recent global crisis, this experience comprised three distinct phases. European medium-term growth prospects depend both on how fast productivity grows in the United States and whether catch-up growth can resume after a long hiatus. Economic historians see social capability as a key determinant of success or failure in catch-up growth.
Keywords:
FD; F&D; economy; can money; workforce benefit; productivity growth; utility price; polymer note; pension payment; prices in the shop; Productivity; Non-renewable resources; Income inequality; Aging; Global; Europe; Sub-Saharan Africa; Western Europe; East Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Banks’ Adjustment to Basel III Reform: A Bank-Level Perspective for Emerging Europe
Michal Andrle
,
Vladimír Tomšík
, and
Mr. Jan Vlcek
The paper seeks to identify strategies of commercial banks in response to higher capital requirements of Basel III reform and its phase-in. It focuses on a sample of nine EU emerging market countries and picks up 5 largest banks in each country assessing their response. The paper finds that all banking sectors raised CAR ratios mainly through retained earnings. In countries where the banking sector struggled with profitability, banks have resorted to issuance of new equity or shrunk the size of their balance sheets to meet the higher capital-adequacy requirements. Worries echoed at the early stage of Basel III compilation, namely that commercial banks would shrink their balance sheet by reducing their lending to meet stricter capital requirements, did materialize only in banks struggling with profitability.
Keywords:
WP; bank; net income; balance sheet; asset; capital adequacy; Basel III; banking sector assets; cost of capital; capital adequacy ratio dynamics; increase in capital capital ratio; balance sheet growth; CAR decomposition; Income; Capital adequacy requirements; Commercial banks; Financial statements; Stocks; Europe; Baltics; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Slovenia: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report for the Republic of Slovenia
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper discusses recent economic developments, outlook, and risks in Slovenia. Although strong demand in trading partners and large European Union structural fund transfers buoyed growth in 2014–15, the outlook is less reassuring. The short-term outlook is broadly balanced, while medium-term prospects are subject to downside risks. Significant structural reforms are needed to realize Slovenia’s growth potential, but political tensions and coalition discussions may affect their pace and ambition. Slovenia needs to avoid complacency; with more ambitious reforms, growth can be faster and more sustainable. Concrete measures need to be taken to address binding constraints on growth and reduce financial and fiscal vulnerabilities.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; bank; retail price index; support; General government balance excl. bank support; debt; Slovenia; government finance statistics methodology; SME debt; money market rate; government finance statistic yearbook; headline inflation; Nonperforming loans; Government finance statistics; Balance of payments statistics; Fiscal stance; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Slovenia: Technical Assistance Report-Bank Intervention and Resolution and the Deposit Guarantee System
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Technical Assistance Report assesses the bank resolution framework and deposit guarantee system in Slovenia. There are three necessary requirements for effective bank resolution: (1) a special bank resolution regime, (2) advance preparation for bank intervention and resolution, and (3) an adequately funded Deposit Guarantee Scheme (DGS). Slovenia’s banking law provides for the first, while the recommendation to create a Resolution Unit within Bank of Slovenia has been adopted. The extant DGS, however, is an ex post funded scheme that does not fulfill the third criteria. Slovenia must implement the European Union Deposit Guarantee Scheme Directive into national law, which calls for an ex ante funded DGS.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; bank; deposit; Bos; authority; resolution tool; bank intervention; bank resolution; license revocation; borrowed bank contribution; IT system; bank Resolution authority; insolvent bank; liquidation process; banking law; bank supervision; bank liquidation; Bank resolution; Bank liquidation; Bank resolution framework; Deposit insurance; Bank deposits; Global