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Europe > Slovenia, Republic of

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Croatia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper examines the competitiveness of Croatia’s goods exports and predicts its goods export diversification potential. The paper also discusses the goods export competitiveness using Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) with cross-country comparison and uses a machine-learning approach to worldwide product-level data to forecast Croatia’s goods export portfolio. Croatia has demonstrated goods export competitiveness beyond the tourism sector. Over the past few decades, its share of exports of goods with comparative advantage has exhibited a positive correlation with Croatia’s real income growth, while negatively correlated with its growth volatility. However, Croatia's export structure indicates its relatively modest status in medium- and high-technology goods compared to other Eurozone countries. A machine-learning-based analysis suggests that Croatia has potential in exporting a higher share of manufacturing goods in its export portfolio, especially technology-intensive ones. Raising productivity is important for Croatia to unleash the capacity for a higher and more resilient growth.
Keywords:
goods export competitiveness; goods export diversification; goods export comparative advantage; goods export structure; Croatia's GHG emission; Greenhouse gas emissions; Climate change; Carbon tax; Natural disasters; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Slovenia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper takes the case of Slovenia to analyze credit growth and economic recovery in Europe. The findings reveal that following the global financial crisis recovery in Slovenia significantly lags typical postrecession recoveries for both typical and financial-crisis-driven recessions. Credit dynamics have also been much more subdued. Controlling for Slovenia’s double-dip recession and the slowdown in global growth after the global financial crisis reveals that Slovenia’s recovery is not atypical. The cross-country study also finds that bank-specific factors are the key determinants of bank lending. Bank credit to the private sector also has a positive but modest impact on economic activity, mainly through the investment channel.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; export; Slovenia; GDP; bank credit growth; export category; Slovenia's export; bank credit dynamics; post GFC-recovery; goods export; Labor markets; Exports; Bank credit; Employment; Unemployment; Global; Europe; Southern Europe; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Slovenia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper focuses on the following key issues of the Slovenian economy: export competitiveness, corporate financial health and investment, European Central Bank (ECB) quantitative easing, and financial sector development issues and prospects. Slovenia’s exports have been the main contributor to GDP growth in recent years. In particular, by 2015 exports of goods and services had increased by 20 percentage points of GDP compared to their postcrisis low in 2009. Preceding the global economic slump in 2008, bank credit in Slovenia fueled corporate investment. The past few years have witnessed substantial monetary easing by the ECB. With inflation running well below target, the ECB has been pursuing unconventional monetary policy-easing actions.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Slovenia; export; quantitative easing; GDP; investment relationship; assets threshold; ECB quantitative easing; QE trend; exports of transport equipment; QE period; investment decision; transport equipment export; Exports; Financial sector development; Unconventional monetary policies; Debt burden; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Assessing Competitiveness Using Industry Unit Labor Costs: An Application to Slovakia
International Monetary Fund
Conceptual ambiguities and statistical weaknesses hamper the assessment of external competitiveness. The term competitiveness, while applied extensively, is often imprecisely defined, which can result in analytical errors and mistaken policy advice. Furthermore, aggregate statistical measures of competitiveness in terms of exchange rate misalignment can be biased. To address these issues, this paper makes two contributions. First, it clarifies the external competitiveness concept, highlighting the dichotomy between productivity-driven long-run growth and short-run deviations from the underlying growth trajectory, which can be related to exchange rate misalignment. Second, it develops a disaggregated statistical approach for examining competitiveness based on unit labor costs at the three digit industry level in a group of comparable countries. The case of Slovakia is used to illustrate these concepts, but the analytical insights have general application.
Keywords:
WP; Slovakia; cost; export share; competitiveness; unit labor cost; exchange rate; price level; paper estimates unit labor cost norm; disaggregated ULC; ULC dev.; industry unit labor cost; ULC relative; Competition; Exchange rates; Productivity; Global competitiveness; Export performance; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Sustainable Real Exchange Rates in the New Eu Member States: What Did the Great Recession Change?
Ms. Katerina Smídková
,
Jan Babecky
, and
Mr. Ales Bulir
The Great Recession affected export and import patterns in our sample countries, and these changes, coupled with a more volatile external environment, have profound impact on our estimates of real exchange rate misalignments and projections of sustainable real exchange rates. We find that real misalignments in several countries with pegged exchange rates and excessive external liabilities widened relative to earlier estimates. While countries with balanced net trade positions are expected to continue to experience appreciation during 2010-2014, several currencies are likely to require real depreciation to maintain sustainable net external debt. Our estimates point to somewhat larger disequilibria than those of IMF country teams, however, any estimates of equilibrium exchange rates are subject to sizable uncertainty.
Keywords:
WP; country-specific FDI elasticity; FDI inflow; Foreign direct investment; new EU member states; sustainable exchange rates; debt target; SRER estimate; IMF team; FDI elasticity; SRER projection; computed SRER interval; elasticity of export; nontradable-sector FDI; Real exchange rates; Trade balance; Exports; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bosnia and Herzegovina: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper for Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) reports that GDP per capita in BiH is similar to that in neighboring Balkan countries. BiH risks are falling behind rather than catching up with other transition economies in terms of its economic development. This could delay the process of convergence to and integration with the European Union, including its ambitions to eventually adopt the euro. Accelerated structural reforms and macroeconomic stability remain key to achieving higher and sustained growth rates.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; current account; Bosnia-Herzegovina; export; exchange rate; export growth; inflation performance; BiH's inflation figure; BiH risk; rising prices; growth dynamics; CA gap; BIH's inflation; Inflation; Exports; Real exchange rates; Export performance; Consumer price indexes; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Czech Republic, Republic of Estonia, Hungary, Republic of Latvia, Republic of Lithuania, Republic of Poland, Slovak Republic, and Republic of Slovenia: Export Structure and Credit Growth
International Monetary Fund
Of the new members entering the European Union (EU) in May 2004, several had achieved a decade of impressive export growth, expanding significantly their shares of world markets. The empirical analysis shows that over the period 1994–2004, quality and technology upgrading associated with the structural transformation were, indeed, also associated with increased market share. Several bivariate relationships to motivate an empirical framework for analyzing the evolution of market shares are ascribed. It gives the basic regressions explaining the changes in market shares for 58 countries.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; market share; credit growth; market share gain; product quality; export share; bank soundness; Bank credit; Credit; Bank soundness; Loans; Real interest rates; Baltics; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Slovenia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This paper provides a background on the key policy challenges for Slovenia in the euro zone. Then, it assesses the discretionary scope to adjust spending and proposes initial steps to enhance budget flexibility so that fiscal adjustment can be targeted on relatively inefficient spending. This study also discusses the long-term fiscal sustainability position of Slovenia using a generational accounting framework. A simulation of retirement incentives suggests that the pension system will encourage individuals to retire earlier than the statutory full pensionable age. These incentives are stronger for low-income earners.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Slovenia; expenditure reform; chapter VI; productivity growth; trade specialization pattern; chapter III; pension base; Pensions; Pension spending; Aging; Health care spending; Retirement; Europe; Western Hemisphere
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Slovenia: 2006 Article IV Consultation: Staff Report; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Slovenia
International Monetary Fund
Slovenia is set to become the first among the new European Union member states to adopt the euro. Executive Directors emphasized the need to implement policies that increase productivity, create an efficient business environment and a flexible labor market, and improve sustainability of public finances in the face of population aging. Labor participation is also relatively low among the older and younger working-age population. To deal with these challenges, the authorities should speed up efforts to raise labor utilization by lowering marginal tax rates, improving the target of social benefits and reducing incentives for early retirement.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; EMU convergence price index; euro adoption; Maastricht convergence criteria; inflation criterion; fiscal policy; reform package; Wages; Exports; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Croatia: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
The development of the Croatian financial sector has faced many of the difficulties experienced by other transition countries. Recent troubles have exacted a significant macroeconomic price but the strategy implemented by the Croatian National Bank (CNB) since the approval of the new banking law promises the early resolution of the more immediate problems. GDP at constant prices, trends in total labor costs, price developments, retail inflation rates, agricultural production, consolidated central government fiscal accounts, government employment, health insurance, disability and retirement insurance, and so on are presented in detail.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Croatia; bank; short-term debt; current account; net of FDI; bank financing; Association agreement; government Sector social; loan portfolio; reserves ratio; prudential portfolio adjustment; a number of bank; cash payment; Commercial banks; Exports; Pension spending; Eastern Europe; Central and Eastern Europe