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Europe > Slovenia, Republic of

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Slovenia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on boosting productivity in Slovenia. Slovenia’s ageing population sets a constraint on the contribution of labor to gross domestic product in the end.Only achieve sustained increases in income and living standards can, therefore, through investment in physical and human capital and, more importantly, through enhancing productivity, historically the key growth driver. This paper summarizes historical trends in growth and productivity in Slovenia, examines the country’s strengths and weaknesses in terms of key factors affecting productivity identified in the literature. Since the scope for future labor contributions to growth in Slovenia is limited for demographic reasons—apart from further improvements to labor quality—the focus of economic growth policies should be on reinvigorating private investment, which has been low over the past decade, and pursuing labor and product market reforms that boost total factor productivity growth.
Keywords:
productivity trend; firm leverage; labor market indicator; I. shift share methodology; EU growth composition; Productivity; Total factor productivity; Labor force; Private investment; Europe; Central and Eastern Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Slovak Republic: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on drivers and impacts of inflation in Slovakia. High and volatile inflation in Slovakia in recent years seems to be mainly driven by volatile food prices amplified by the larger consumer price index weight of food items. Other drivers include the large impact of imported inflation, elevated profit margins of domestic firms, and higher wage growth. High inflation could erode external competitiveness through higher unit labor costs, but there is no clear evidence of this so far. Domestically, high inflation has had uneven impacts across households and firms. Firms with the largest cost increases experienced a deterioration in their financial situation, and certain categories of households, including those with low-income levels and the elderly, are particularly vulnerable to the rising cost of living. The recent fall in inflation is projected to continue, but strong unit labor cost growth or an increase in profit margins could keep inflation elevated and undermine competitiveness.
Keywords:
price change; unit labor cost; inflation in Slovakia; B. income convergence; D. policy implication; Inflation; Productivity; Total factor productivity; Aging; Europe; Central and Eastern Europe; Baltics
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Fresh Look at Potential Output in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European Countries
Jiri Podpiera
,
Ms. Faezeh Raei
, and
Ara Stepanyan
Was the postcrisis growth slowdown in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) structural or cyclical? We use three different methods—production function approach, basic multivariate filter, and multivariate filter with financial frictions—to evaluate potential growth and output gaps for 18 CESEE countries during 2000-15. Our findings suggest that potential growth weakened significantly after the crisis across most countries in the region. This decline appears to be largely due to stagnant productivity and weaker capital accumulation, which were associated with common external factors, including trading partners’ slow potential growth, but also decline in global trade and stalled expansion of global value chains. Our estimates suggest that output gaps in 2015 were largely closed in many countries in the region.
Keywords:
WP; output gap estimate; CESEE; Potential output; Output gap; Emerging Markets; core inflation; output gap amplitude; MVF FIN; CESEE economy; Capacity utilization; Inflation; Total factor productivity; Global; Baltics; Central and Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Banks’ Adjustment to Basel III Reform: A Bank-Level Perspective for Emerging Europe
Michal Andrle
,
Vladimír Tomšík
, and
Mr. Jan Vlcek
The paper seeks to identify strategies of commercial banks in response to higher capital requirements of Basel III reform and its phase-in. It focuses on a sample of nine EU emerging market countries and picks up 5 largest banks in each country assessing their response. The paper finds that all banking sectors raised CAR ratios mainly through retained earnings. In countries where the banking sector struggled with profitability, banks have resorted to issuance of new equity or shrunk the size of their balance sheets to meet the higher capital-adequacy requirements. Worries echoed at the early stage of Basel III compilation, namely that commercial banks would shrink their balance sheet by reducing their lending to meet stricter capital requirements, did materialize only in banks struggling with profitability.
Keywords:
WP; bank; net income; balance sheet; asset; capital adequacy; Basel III; banking sector assets; cost of capital; capital adequacy ratio dynamics; increase in capital capital ratio; balance sheet growth; CAR decomposition; Income; Capital adequacy requirements; Commercial banks; Financial statements; Stocks; Europe; Baltics; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Slovenia: Technical Assistance Report-The 2013 Property Tax Act: Evaluation of its Design and the Employed Mass Valuation System
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This report provides to the Ministry of Finance a review of the current mass valuation appraisal system, and further policy directions on improved tax design for a property tax that would not invite Constitutional challenge, especially in respect of tax base definition, tax rate policy, and tax relief. These measures combined would broaden the base with less rate discrimination. The mission identified the following key structural problems as to the design of the real property tax and suggested corrective steps with the view to improving collections from property taxes across Slovenia
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; market value; land tax; tax burden; tax rate; transfer tax; real property; progressive tax; real property property tax; local government; discounted cash flow; property tax system; Property tax; Personal income; Consumption taxes; Tax incidence; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Sovereign CDS Spreads in Europe: The Role of Global Risk Aversion, Economic Fundamentals, Liquidity, and Spillovers
Mr. Frigyes F Heinz
and
Ms. Yan M Sun
By analysing data from January 2007 to December 2012 in a panel GLS error correction framework we find that European countries’ sovereign CDS spreads are largely driven by global investor sentiment, macroeconomic fundamentals and liquidity conditions in the CDS market. But the relative importance of these factors changes over time. While during the 2008/09 crisis weak economic fundamentals (such as high current account decifit, worsening underlying fiscal balances, credit boom), a drop in liquidity and a spike in risk aversion contributed to high spreads in Central and Eastern and South-Eastern European (CESEE) countries, a marked improvement in fundamentals (e.g. reduction in fiscal deficit, narrowing of current balances, gradual economic recovery) explains the region’s resilience to financial market spillovers during the euro area crisis. Our generalised variance decomposition analyisis does not suggest strong direct spillovers from the euro area periphery. The significant drop in the CDS spreads between July 2012 and December 2012 was mainly driven by a decline in risk aversion as suggested by the model’s out of sample forecasts.
Keywords:
WP; CDS spread; financial market; area crisis; real GDP; CESEE countries; financial spillovers; CDS spreads; CESEE country; sovereign CDS; area CDS; norm decomposition; periphery country; CDS bid; CDS market liquidity condition; Credit default swap; Government debt management; Spillovers; Liquidity; Current account balance; Global; Baltics
Cover IMF Working Papers
Economic Growth in Croatia: Potential and Constraints
Mr. David Moore
and
Mr. Athanasios Vamvakidis
This paper examines the factors and constraints that affect recent and potential growth in Croatia, as well as policies that can influence it. On current productivity trends, it estimates Croatia's potential growth rate at 4-4½ percent, a result reasonably robust to different methodologies. To sustain growth at a higher rate in line with the authorities' aspirations, the analysis highlights the critical need to improve the business environment through further measures to reduce the administrative burden, legal uncertainties, and corruption. It also emphasizes the importance of attracting more greenfield foreign direct investment, and reforms to reduce the role of the state in the economy through fiscal consolidation and faster privatization.
Keywords:
WP; reform progress; transition rank; export base; Croatia's rank; EBRD indices; economic growth in Croatia; innovation in Croatia; Business environment; Foreign direct investment; Structural reforms; Total factor productivity; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Real Convergence to EU Income Levels: Central Europe From 1990 to the Long Term
Mr. Guorong Jiang
,
Mr. Peter Doyle
, and
Louis Kuijs
The paper discusses factors likely to shape the nature and pace of economic growth of five Central European transition countries now engaged in accession to the European Union. It is organized around the standard growth accounting framework. The paper reviews the growth of these countries since 1990 and draws lessons from the growth experiences of other regions since the 1950s, shedding light on long-term growth prospects for these countries. It discusses a set of growth calculations and highlights the key uncertainties in them.
Keywords:
WP; TFP growth; GDP ratio; State intervention; TFP result; Transition; EU accession; growth; growth accounting; Central Europe; investment ratio; TFP performance; output ratio; investment climate; Total factor productivity; Stocks; Productivity; Production growth; Western Europe; East Asia; Eastern Europe; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bosnia and Herzegovina: Recent Economic Developments
International Monetary Fund
This paper reviews economic developments in Bosnia and Herzegovina during 1990–95. It describes the monetary arrangements that have evolved in the Federation and Republika Srpska, and summarizes the financial developments. The paper provides an overview of balance-of-payments developments and the external financing requirements associated with the authorities’ priority reconstruction program. It describes the exchange rate and trade systems of the two Entities. An assessment of macroeconomic statistics in Bosnia and Herzegovina and a summary of IMF technical assistance activities are also provided.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; deutsche mark; foreign exchange; income tax; federal government; national bank; direct tax; banking sector; Currencies; Income; Personal income; Commercial banks; Western Europe