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José Abad
Following the COVID shock, supervisors encouraged banks to use capital buffers to support the recovery. However, banks have been reluctant to do so. Provided the market expects a bank to rebuild its buffers, any draw-down will open up a capital shortfall that will weigh on its share price. Therefore, a bank will only decide to use its buffers if the value creation from a larger loan book offsets the costs associated with a capital shortfall. Using market expectations, we calibrate a framework for assessing the usability of buffers. Our results suggest that the cases in which the use of buffers make economic sense are rare in practice.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
This paper reports about current mainstream growth projections for the United States and the European Union over the medium term represent a marked slowdown from growth rates in the decades prior to the global financial crisis. Slower growth in Europe and the United States has mixed implications for growth prospects in developing economies. Most obviously, on the negative side, it means less demand for these countries’ exports, so models of development based on export-led growth may need to be rethought. In contrast, for Western Europe the narrative is about catch-up growth rather than the rate of cutting-edge technological progress. From the middle of the 20th century to the recent global crisis, this experience comprised three distinct phases. European medium-term growth prospects depend both on how fast productivity grows in the United States and whether catch-up growth can resume after a long hiatus. Economic historians see social capability as a key determinant of success or failure in catch-up growth.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Technical Assistance Report assesses the bank resolution framework and deposit guarantee system in Slovenia. There are three necessary requirements for effective bank resolution: (1) a special bank resolution regime, (2) advance preparation for bank intervention and resolution, and (3) an adequately funded Deposit Guarantee Scheme (DGS). Slovenia’s banking law provides for the first, while the recommendation to create a Resolution Unit within Bank of Slovenia has been adopted. The extant DGS, however, is an ex post funded scheme that does not fulfill the third criteria. Slovenia must implement the European Union Deposit Guarantee Scheme Directive into national law, which calls for an ex ante funded DGS.
Ms. Yan M Sun
,
Mr. Frigyes F Heinz
, and
Giang Ho
This paper uses the Global VAR (GVAR) model proposed by Pesaran et al. (2004) to study cross-country linkages among euro area countries, other advanced European countries (including the Nordics, the UK, etc.), and the Central, Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) countries. An innovative feature of the paper is the use of combined trade and financial weights (based on BIS reporting banks’ external position data) to capture the very close trade and financial ties of the CESEE countries with the advanced Europe countries. The results show strong co-movements in output growth and interest rates but weaker linkages bewteen inflation and real credit growth within Europe. While the euro area is the dominant source of economic influences, there are also interesting subregional linkages, e.g. between the Nordic and the Baltic countries, and a small but notable impact of CESEE countries on the rest of the Europe.
International Monetary Fund
The Czech Republic’s strong fundamentals helped to sustain economic growth with low unemployment and underpin strides toward convergence with EU-15. Executive Directors welcomed the euro accession strategy and the sustained implementation of the Maastricht criteria, which would provide a solid foundation for euro adoption. They commended the sound financial system and prudent monetary policies and supported policy tightening to counter rising inflation pressures. Directors highlighted the need to sustain fiscal consolidation, promote labor participation, and lower structural unemployment in alleviating fiscal adjustment.
International Monetary Fund
Of the new members entering the European Union (EU) in May 2004, several had achieved a decade of impressive export growth, expanding significantly their shares of world markets. The empirical analysis shows that over the period 1994–2004, quality and technology upgrading associated with the structural transformation were, indeed, also associated with increased market share. Several bivariate relationships to motivate an empirical framework for analyzing the evolution of market shares are ascribed. It gives the basic regressions explaining the changes in market shares for 58 countries.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper for Romania reports that the practice of nonpayment and arrears accumulation has been widespread in Romania. Managers of enterprises that remain in the pipeline for privatization for long periods of time have little incentive to reduce arrears. The state contributed to growth of arrears by accepting nonmonetary tax and utility payments, using tax offsets in procurement, and tolerating payment arrears. These practices have been prevalent at all levels of state and local government, as well as state utility companies.
International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
Mr. Leslie Lipschitz
,
Mr. Alex Mourmouras
, and
Mr. Timothy D. Lane
This paper discusses the forces driving capital flows in the transition countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). It argues that various influences—specifically, the real exchange rate history and trend and the factor intensity of production—can combine to motivate very large capital inflows. These inflows can either undermine attempts at monetary restraint or force excessive appreciations. They can also render the economy highly vulnerable to shifts in market sentiment. The policy implications of the analysis are awkward: exposure to global capital markets sets up difficult dilemmas for policy and leads to vulnerabilities that can be reduced but not eliminated.
Ms. Nancy L Wagner
and
Ms. Dora M Iakova
This paper takes stock of the current state of development of the financial systems in five Central European transition economies (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, the Slovak Republic, and Slovenia) that are also leading EU accession candidates. It presents both a progress report and an assessment of remaining challenges, with a focus on the role of the financial sector in supporting macroeconomic stability and sustainable growth.